The influence of governance and complexity on project outcomes in international development

Abstract

In this study, the impact of governance on the outcomes of international development projects is assessed and role of complexity in moderating this relationship is explored. The research question is addressed using a multi-method approach drawing upon records of the World Bank’s projects over the past 20 years. Almost 7,000 projects and 250,000 contracts were reviewed, resulting in an empirical data set of 3,683 projects. Results of the study confirm that governance, at both the national and project levels, positively impacts on the achievement of project objectives; however, no evidence was found for a similar influence on the on-time completion of projects. A strong positive relationship was not found between project outcomes and governance at the national level but 12 complexity factors were found to moderate the relationship between governance and project outcomes. Most complexity proxies negatively moderated the influence of governance on project outcomes; however, the study revealed the existence of positive relationships between some variables. The relationship between complexity factors and project outcomes and their effects on governance status with project outcomes were tested using a Logistic Regression Model. All complexity factors were found to have marginal effects on governance and project outcomes with varying levels of probability. The research results recognised different governance networks for their efforts to address project complexity. Results contribute to understanding of the influence of governance on project outcomes when affected by different complexity factors and will be of interest to countries, local governments, the UN and financial institutions alike when establishing governance mechanisms.