Walking and cycling in an automated future: a Dutch-Australian comparison

Abstract

Technological mobility innovation is poised to accelerate, with the advent of Automated Vehicles (AVs) predicted to improve road safety, reduce transport costs, increase access to mobility, and to hasten Electric Vehicle adoption. Although AV technology is evolving rapidly, consumer preferences for AV ownership and use, as well as the potential impacts of AVs on walking and cycling are not well understood.

This research compares contextual conditions, attitudes and AV adoption likelihood in two contrasting locales: car-friendly Sydney, Australia and walk/cycle-friendly The Randstad, Netherlands. The research focuses on travel behaviour for short trips, where walking and cycling have traditionally held an advantage over motor vehicles. The research uses a mixed-methods approach that uses analytical methods (a comparison of locales), qualitative methods (semi-structured interviews) and quantitative methods (discrete choice analysis).

The qualitative research reveals that Dutch participants feel that all road users have the same right to use road space, and should have the same expectation of safety. In contrast, Australian participants express impatience with “other people” walking, and score the importance of safety for car occupants as higher than for non-occupants. This highlights that attitudes towards non-car modes in some localities present a risk factor for further marginalisation of walking and cycling in an AV future.

The quantitative research reveals that mode choice retention is highest for those who currently cycle, and that protected bicycle infrastructure is likely to encourage bicycle use in an AV future. Walking is also encouraged by the provision of separated infrastructure and is more popular for shopping in the Netherlands, where trips are more frequent and cargo-carrying requirements are lower.