A Case for Applying Interdisciplinary Methods to Analyze Historic Yersinia pestis Outbreaks

Abstract

Plague is often thought of as an historic disease; however it has been classified as re-emerging. Many disciplines have conducted research independently on these historic outbreaks, with the aim of better understanding the disease and its impact. Epidemiological models designed to show the spread of plague in the past have been created using modern data on transmission as a framework. This thesis uses and argues for a multidisciplinary approach in plague analysis with a foundation in the historic record. Seventeenth century outbreaks in Venice, London, and Eyam (County Derbyshire), were selected because the presence of Yersinia pestis, the bacterium responsible for plague, has been confirmed using suicide polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Theoretical models created with a SEIRDS model are compared to mortality data obtained from parish records. This same data is also used to generate maps in ArcGIS to show the spread of plague during outbreaks in London and Venice. Primary source accounts of plague inform further analysis, and a case study on Eyam demonstrates why the historic record is important when conducting research on historic outbreaks of disease. Each case study also examines cultural, environment, public health, and socioeconomic factors that may have influenced the outbreaks with a subsequent discussion on the long-term impacts of plague. The historic record is also used to show how primary sources can be utilized in creating models when mortality data is not available, further demonstrating the importance of multidisciplinary research methods.