The value of slow travel: An econometric method for valuing the user benefits of active transport infrastructure

Abstract

Transport infrastructure investments are typically justified largely on the basis of their ability to increase travel speeds. However, new bicycle facilities, such as separated cycleways, may result in slower journeys. Economic appraisals of proposed bicycle facilities therefore tend to focus on the social benefits, in particular, improvements in public health resulting from increased physical activity. Yet, some welfare benefit must also accrue to the users of the new facilities, given they willingly choose to use them over faster alternatives. This thesis explores how discrete choice modelling can be used to analyse the trade-offs people make when choosing how they travel, and thereby (a) forecast changes in travel demand resulting from bicycle network improvements, and (b) quantify and monetise the resulting benefits to users. Despite the theory having been established in the 1970s, there have been few practical applications of this methodology, and it is yet to be used to value the user benefits of new bicycle facilities in a car-centric city. This thesis also assesses the short-term reliability of such assessments, by analysing changes in travel demand and preferences following an actual infrastructure intervention. It is found that bicycle network improvements offer substantial welfare benefits to users, in terms of improved accessibility, comfort, perceived safety, and transport choice – even though their journeys may end up being slower. Furthermore, these benefits amplify when links are connected into a network. By ignoring such benefits in project appraisal, bicycle facilities may be significantly undervalued, and transport investment decisions inadequately informed.