Analysing the effects of travel information on public transport traveller’s decision making and learning

Abstract

This thesis examines the effect of travel information on a public transport traveller’s decision making over time. It investigates whether the effect of information is sustained over time and is affected by its type and reliability. It is postulated that the traveller will attain better decision outcomes over time, and this process is reinforced when given information. It is postulated that dynamic information would produce the best outcomes, followed by static information and no information. A series of computer-based experiments, in which the participants made hypothetical trips by public bus under various travel information and operating conditions, were conducted. At the aggregate level, the hypothesised relationships are not observed at a statistically significant level. At the disaggregate level, day-to-day decisions are shown to relate significantly to the outcome of the previous day, with the participant more likely to seek a more rewarding but riskier choice if the previous day sees no adverse outcome, and vice-versa. When the information is static, decision changes are few and incremental. When it is dynamic, these changes are more frequent and pronounced, with choices ‘anchored’ around values provided by the information. Nonetheless, a significant proportion of participants made no or few changes, regardless of information or operating conditions. The findings suggest a higher propensity for some travellers to use dynamic information over static information over time, regardless of reliability. On the other hand, those who acquire information do not necessarily maximise their utility, implying that they do so for other less quantifiable factors. The benefits of information provision could also be further circumscribed by the heterogeneity of responses. This set of findings suggests that assuming travellers respond to information in a utility-maximising and homogeneous manner may over-estimate the effect of information.