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dc.contributor.authorYi, Chun
dc.date.accessioned2019-10-02
dc.date.available2019-10-02
dc.date.issued2019-10-01
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2123/21171
dc.description.abstractIn this thesis, I chose Wuhan, a typical big city in mainland China, as the location for the sample which included 194,397 real-time observations to build a prototype of a cinema-level demand system. This thesis is comprised of three related and independent parts, as follows. Price rigidity for differentiated movies has been a puzzling issue, because the lack of variation in prices makes estimating demand for movies difficult. In first paper, I estimate a demand equation for movies by using data from a typical large urban market in China which features substantial and high-frequency variation in price and box-office sales across films, screening times, and auditoriums. Our two-level nested logit model captures the key details of the market, especially price variation, that determine the market share of a movie, and sheds light on the implications of price decisions. A vast number of new movies are released to the market each year. Does this lead to excessive entry or expand the industry? A movie release may fail if a cinema ignores potential stiff competition from other cinemas. In second paper, I empirically measure the impact of new movie releases by using detailed entry data across cinemas from a typical large urban market in China. I identify and measure three primary effects of the release of new movies: market expansion of the entire industry, business stealing across different cinemas and cannibalisation among movies within a cinema. I find that differentiated product entry in the movie exhibition industry leads to a strong market expansion effect, weak business-stealing and modest cannibalisation effects, implying that the extensive releasing of new movies increases industry profits and expands consumer choice. I depict the life cycle of a movie in the third paper by using extensive and detailed data from birth to death across movies, including their screening times and the auditorium sizes, from a large market within China. The life cycle of the movie's distribution shows a descending stair shape. A survival analysis reveals a pattern of dynamic interaction between cinemas’ expectations and the performance of movies, which determines the shape and length of a movie’s life cycle. Cinemas constantly adjust their expectations of a movie to match its performance. The survival model also captures important time-invariant variables that are correlated with the run length of the movie. The rate of occupation drops below 10% before the movie dies, and then a new movie entry will finally push the “ready-to-go” movie to exit from the market.en_AU
dc.publisherUniversity of Sydneyen_AU
dc.publisherFaculty of Arts and Social Sciencesen_AU
dc.rightsThe author retains copyright of this thesis. It may only be used for the purposes of research and study. It must not be used for any other purposes and may not be transmitted or shared with others without prior permission.en_AU
dc.subjectChinese movie industryen_AU
dc.subjectprice variationen_AU
dc.subjectnested logiten_AU
dc.subjectdemand estimationen_AU
dc.subjectmarket expansionen_AU
dc.subjectmovie's life cycleen_AU
dc.titleA Study of the Chinese Mainland Cinema Marketen_AU
dc.typePhD Doctorateen_AU
dc.type.pubtypeDoctor of Philosophy Ph.D.en_AU
dc.description.disclaimerAccess is restricted to staff and students of the University of Sydney . UniKey credentials are required. Non university access may be obtained by visiting the University of Sydney Library.en_AU


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