Predicting Technical Value Of Technologies Through Their Knowledge Structure

Abstract

This thesis tests the hypothesis that the characteristics displayed by the knowledge structure of a high technical value invention is different from that of a low technical value invention. The knowledge structure crystalizes at the inception of the invention making it ideal for evaluating new inventions. More specifically, this research investigates two characteristics of the knowledge structure: knowledge accumulation and knowledge appropriation. Knowledge accumulation is defined as the collective body of knowledge gathered in a sector over time that has contributed to the creation of the invention. A higher degree of accumulated knowledge is more likely to be associated with high technical value inventions. Knowledge appropriation describes absorption of knowledge in the creation of the invention. From knowledge structure perspective knowledge absorption is observed by the emergence of edges that connect knowledge elements together. The robustness of this emergent knowledge structure is thus an indicator of the amount of knowledge appropriated by the invention. This research introduces a new metric for the measurement of knowledge accumulation and presents structural robustness as an indicator of knowledge appropriation. Knowledge accumulation and knowledge appropriation are hypothesized to be positively correlated with the technical value of the invention. This research tests the hypotheses by examining the citation networks of patents in four sectors: thin film photovoltaics, inductive vibration energy harvesting, piezoelectric energy harvesting, and carbon nanotubes. In total 152 base inventions and over 4000 patents are investigated. This research shows that knowledge accumulation is a significant predictor of the technical value of an invention and that high value inventions show a higher level of knowledge appropriation.