The Capability to Align Estimated Performance with Actual Performance: Insights from Physical & Cognitive Performance Contexts

Abstract

Discrepancies between estimated and actual performance occur daily in both normative and performance based tasks. This is synonymous with a type of cognitive bias known as the Dunning-Kruger Effect (DKE). In this thesis, Chapter 2 examined the existing literature on estimation and performance alignment and DKEs using systematic and meta-analytical procedures. Findings identified a small-moderate correlation in the ability to align estimation with actual performance. In DKE terms, quartile 1 performers overestimated, while quartile 4 underestimated. Alignment correlations were also found to be moderated by methodological and task factors, but not participant characteristics. Chapter 3 assessed DKE prevalence and whether sporting experience, the time point of estimation, and reference group moderated trends in the physical tasks of Sprint and Vertical Jump. Notwithstanding DKE presence, trends were affected by time point of estimation. Estimation error was not related to current or previous sporting experience in either task. Chapter 4 examined DKEs in the cognitive contexts of the Stroop and Tower of Hanoi tasks, and assessed whether estimation error was moderated by time point of estimation, reference group, task difficulty, feedback, and efficacy. For both tasks, pre-task efficacy predicted estimation error, and time point of estimation affected estimation, with increases and decreases post-task in the Stroop and Tower of Hanoi respectively. Together, findings highlight DKE prevalence in multiple task contexts. DKE trends were moderated by task and methodological characteristics. Underlying mechanisms appear to implicate metacognitive skill as well as chronic-self views and pre-task efficacy. Increasing metacognitive skill and performance feedback is identified as a key strategy for error prevention and mitigation. Identifying DKE consequences and interventions that improve estimation-performance alignment are important future directions.