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|Title: ||Australian water security and Asian food security: complexity and macroeconomics of sustainability|
|Authors: ||Zhao, Ke|
|Keywords: ||Australian water security and Asian food security|
|Issue Date: ||24-Feb-2015|
|Publisher: ||University of Sydney|
Faculty of Agriculture and Environment
|Abstract: ||The thesis focuses on the macroeconomics of sustainable development and the extension to energy, water and food security, using a system dynamics approach, i.e. the methods of differential equations systems with initial values. The work is divided into three related parts that build a narrative concerning the interaction between economics, policy, natural resources and society.
First, after reviewing the concepts of complexity in environmental security, a simple system comprising three coupled differential equations is used to explain the effects of macroeconomic business cycles on the exploitation of ecological resources, and from this is inferred an implied importance of averting business cycles. The concept of entropy production is used to represent the exploitation of ecological resources.
The second part establishes a system methodology inspired by Post Keynesian economics to develop the Murray-Darling Basin Economy Simulation Model that links food production/water users and food consumers at the micro scale, to the macroeconomic system dynamics. The goal of this study is to integrate and analyze the ecological-economic system in the Murray-Darling basin. The concepts of entropy production, useful work and income distribution are used as a bridge between the micro and macro subsystems. The system parameters are estimated using an ecological-economic data set for the Murray-Darling basin and for Australia (where data of the Basin are unavailable) from 1978-2005, and the model is validated using data from 2006-2012. The results reveal important structural linkages between the two subsystems and are used to predict the consequences of business cycles and government intervention for the coordination of growth and sustainability.
The third, and final, part presents the development of an ``Asian Food Security Risk Engine'' that predicts the threat of civil unrest from food insecurity in Asian developing countries. A basal characteristics index for each developing country in Asia is defined and evaluated. Based on these measures, and introducing the concept of flow of anger, we use a differential equation system to integrate the threat of food security, the trigger for food riots, and food policy. The system parameters are estimated using a data set tracking indexes for threat, trigger and policy for Asian developing countries from 2006-2008, and the model is validated using data from 2009-2012. The results show the possible alternative approaches to simulating threat severity from food insecurity and are used to predict the threat of social unrest due to food security for a given country one month ahead.|
|Type of Work: ||PhD Doctorate|
|Type of Publication: ||Doctor of Philosophy Ph.D.|
|Appears in Collections:||Sydney Digital Theses (Open Access)|
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|Zhao, Ke - Final thesis.pdf||1.51 MB||Adobe PDF|
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