A Comparative And Economic Analysis Of Emerging Space Programs

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to examine how space faring states develop. This thesis will expand upon the space exploration theories of Arthur C. Clarke (1958) and Wernher von Braun (1967) by developing two theories called Terran and post-Terran spacepower development. Clarke and von Braun have identified specific steps for a state to explore or “control/conquer” space, which today is defined as becoming a spacepower. I have separated their theories into different areas of space: 1) Terran, which concerns low Earth orbit (LEO) and geosynchronous orbit (GEO) space activities; and 2) post-Terran which concerns space activities outside of LEO and GEO, where the Moon or other planetary bodies are located. This thesis will examine 10 states, which I consider to be emerging spacepowers: Argentina, Brazil, China Japan, India, Iran, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, and South Korea. I will compare and contrast how these states have developed their Terran space activities over time to identify, which states have become Terran spacepowers and which are under-performing. Additionally, I will theorize how these states could explore post-Terran space in the future by bridging Clark’s and von Braun’s theories along with futurists’ concepts and scientists’ theories of post-Terran space technologies and policies. Into this analysis, I incorporate post-Terran concepts from Long (2012), Schmidt and Zubrin (1996), Mallove, Matloff (1989), O’Neill (1975), and Benaroya (2010). This thesis will develop these two theories, along with analysis tools by connecting the methodologies of Reid’s (1989a, b) classical economic Stadial Analysis, and Orlikowski’s (1992) Structurational Model of Technology (SMT) into a Stadial Structurational Model of Technology (SSMT). The SSMT methodology will develop Terran and post-Terran spacepower development theories based on common paths, which I call ‘stages’, that emerging spacepowers have pursued or may pursue in the future. The SSMT methodology will analyze the institutional properties that affect spacepower development, the space technologies developed during specific stages, the intentional/unintentional users and how these factors interact over time. Furthermore, the SSMT methodology will utilize Kaplan and Norton’s (1997) Balance Scorecard, Markowitz’s (1952) modern portfolio theory and other econometric models to develop common measurement tools to access which emerging spacepowers have advanced further in Terran spacepower development.