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<title>ITLS Working Papers 1998</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/17753</link>
<description/>
<pubDate>Sat, 13 Jun 2026 23:37:56 GMT</pubDate>
<dc:date>2026-06-13T23:37:56Z</dc:date>
<item>
<title>Environmental Responsiveness in the Bus and Coach Supply Chain: The Case of Greenhouse Gas Emission Production Through Improved Energy and Waste Practices</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19325</link>
<description>Environmental Responsiveness in the Bus and Coach Supply Chain: The Case of Greenhouse Gas Emission Production Through Improved Energy and Waste Practices
Brewer, Ann M.
A strategic concern of governments and industry in Australia has been the extent of environmental responsiveness of companies to their natural environment. Protecting the environment involves reconciling environmental issues and values with economic interests and business responsibilities. The rise in greenhouse gas emissions, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels and de-forestation, is attributed to global warming (Mills 1998). Evidence of increasing human impacts on the environment includes mounting levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, accumulation of wastes and pollution of ground and surface water, which are the focus of the current study. A key question emerges as to which industries are environmentally more responsible than others and is raised specifically in this paper in terms of the transport task’s contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. The aim of this paper is to identify and understand environmental responsiveness within the bus and coach sector of the transport industry, a major contributor to the passenger transport task. The bus and coach sector is defined in the full context of supply chain management, that is the integration of business processes from end user to initial manufacturers and suppliers of vehicles and fuel through to the providers of services and information for the benefit and value of customers. A project, investigating the perceptions that bus and coach operators have about environmental opportunities and associated risks, was conducted. Twenty-six key stakeholders were invited to participate in either a survey or case study designed to ascertain energy and waste management practices. Environmental responsiveness occurs in areas that seem to have the greatest potential impact not only in terms of the environment but also business’s bottom line. While operators initiated waste and energy management programs so as to be socially responsible, they continued them because they discovered their costeffectiveness to the business. A number of specific actions are warranted based on the study’s findings.
</description>
<pubDate>Wed, 01 Jul 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
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<dc:date>1998-07-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Privatisation and Management Education in the Transport Industry</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19347</link>
<description>Privatisation and Management Education in the Transport Industry
Taylor, Samantha Y; Young, William
This paper reviews the development of a number of education programs for the transport industry. The need for these programs was created by the privatisation of government activities. The programs were developed in a distance education format to enable staff with a high workload to do the program during their “free” time.
</description>
<pubDate>Sun, 01 Mar 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19347</guid>
<dc:date>1998-03-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Strategic Alliances Among International Airlines And Their Implications For Organisational Change</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19316</link>
<description>Strategic Alliances Among International Airlines And Their Implications For Organisational Change
Brewer, Ann M.; Hooper, Paul
Globalisation is an inevitable path for many types of organisations as they strive to attain and defend competitive advantage and strategic alliances are a necessary part of this process. Cooperative behaviour and simultaneous competition in several continental markets is not a new phenomenon in aviation, but the current popularity of alliances among the major carriers has been interpreted as a form of globalisation. A common assumption is that these alliances present ways for the airlines to circumvent the restrictions present in the regulatory framework. This paper argues that globalisation, as it is more widely understood in modern management, involves much more than the development of an all-encompassing network. Exploitation of the benefits of globalisation requires a change in thinking about the relationships within and between organisations. Strategic alliances have many advantages over mergers and acquisitions in this context. The paper argues that most of the current airline alliances are “hollow organisation”, but that genuine strategic alliances are likely to be formed in more competitive conditions. These genuine strategic alliances can deliver benefits to the industry and its customers, but policy makers must recognise the growing complexity of new forms of organisation in the airline industry.
</description>
<pubDate>Wed, 01 Apr 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19316</guid>
<dc:date>1998-04-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Aviation Policy in South East Asia: Alliances, “Open Skies” Bilaterals and Regional Airline Markets</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19323</link>
<description>Aviation Policy in South East Asia: Alliances, “Open Skies” Bilaterals and Regional Airline Markets
Hooper, Paul; Duangphastra, Chackrit
The forces for liberalisation of aviation markets are becoming more and more compelling under the relentless pressure of the economics of the industry. The world’s largest airlines are consolidating their relationships within alliances to give them global coverage and the USA has used this as a lever to negotiate open skies air services agreements. In South East Asia, carriers from the USA now enjoy more advantageous rights to carry passengers within the region than the region’s own carriers. Possibly, the response will be for individual nations to negotiate liberal bilateral agreements with each other. However, already there are several initiatives designed to create a competitive, regional airline market. This paper describes these forces and makes observations about the impact they will have on the development of intra-regional airline service. In particular, we raise the question what South East Asia can learn from experiences with single aviation markets elsewhere, particularly Europe. Inter-related questions concern the benefits that can be expected to flow from a single market, whether the regional airline market is a step towards a more liberal, multilateral framework, whether a particular group of economies is optimal for the airlines and whether new members will be permitted to join.
</description>
<pubDate>Fri, 01 May 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19323</guid>
<dc:date>1998-05-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Travel Demand Management and its Application at Australian University Campuses</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19353</link>
<description>Travel Demand Management and its Application at Australian University Campuses
Hynes, Jo; Rose, Geoff
This paper provides an example of how TDM could be applied in Australia with particular reference to university campuses. After considering the different characteristics of Australian university campuses in general, three Melbourne campuses were chosen as representative case studies. These consisted of a inner city campus (University of Melbourne), a inner suburban campus (Swinburne University) and an outer suburban campus (Monash University). Structured interviews were carried out with student and staff representatives involved with transport on campus. The interviews revealed a lack of consideration given to transport as an issue (as opposed to parking) at the three campuses. A subsequent survey was conducted of university administration representatives from campuses around Australia. That larger survey confirmed that Australian university campuses do not have any defined policies or decision making processes focused on campus transport issues. A model campus TDM program is developed based on the review of the available literature and the information on university travel characteristics collected from the three detailed case studies. Although the program is simple, it provides a basis on which individual campuses can establish a TDM program and then develop it further to complement their specific conditions. This paper is to be presented at the 19th ARRB TR Conference to be held in Sydney, 6-11 December 1998.
</description>
<pubDate>Sun, 01 Nov 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19353</guid>
<dc:date>1998-11-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>An Overview of Intelligent Transport Systems Research at the Institute of Transport Studies at Monash University</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19365</link>
<description>An Overview of Intelligent Transport Systems Research at the Institute of Transport Studies at Monash University
Rose, Geoffrey
The Institute of Transport Studies was established in 1995 as a joint venture between Monash University and the University of Sydney. This paper provides an overview of current research at ITS (Monash) which is concerned with Intelligent Transport Systems. The main areas of research in that field relate to Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMS) and Advanced Traveller Information Systems (ATIS). A number of specific projects are reviewed including the prediction of incident induced delays on freeways, improving the delivery of roadside assistance services, travel time prediction for freeways, traveller advisory telephone systems and financing models for ATIS systems. This paper was presented at a workshop on Intelligent Transport Systems hosted by INRETS in France from 5 to 9 October 1998.
</description>
<pubDate>Thu, 01 Oct 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19365</guid>
<dc:date>1998-10-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Is Local Government Addressing The Implementation Issues In Road Safety Audit?</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19335</link>
<description>Is Local Government Addressing The Implementation Issues In Road Safety Audit?
Daly, Peter; Morgan, Colin; Jordan, Phillip
This paper examines some of the issues facing local government in the implementation of the road safety audit process. RSA’s have been accepted and implemented by state road authorities in Australia but there remains a question mark over their acceptance by local government. Local government implementation is essential if the benefits of RSA are to be maximised. Little research has been done into RSA in Victorian municipalities, and it is this area that this paper examines. Much of the literature currently available suggests that RSA’s have great potential to provide benefits both in terms of safety and reduced whole-of-life costs. However, there is a perception amongst many that there is a lack of enthusiasm for RSA amongst local government in Australia. This paper examines the degree and effectiveness of RSA implementation by examining some of the issues of concern. It presents the results of a pilot study of RSA in local government authorities throughout Victoria and makes a number of recommendations to improve the implementation rate and effectiveness of road safety audit in local government.
</description>
<pubDate>Tue, 01 Dec 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19335</guid>
<dc:date>1998-12-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Computer Modelling in Transport Planning: An Investigation of the Current Issues and the Potential of Component Object Model (COM) Approach</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19336</link>
<description>Computer Modelling in Transport Planning: An Investigation of the Current Issues and the Potential of Component Object Model (COM) Approach
Ton, Tu
The past twenty years has been the period of rapid technological change and there is no question that computing technology has been enthusiastically adopted by transport professional and has brought about new concepts such as Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS). However, this has not necessarily shown itself in software quality growth - especially from a transport modelling viewpoint. There has been a gap between the conceptualisation of a model and its implementation since 1960s. Transport software developers have been equipped with more powerful computer hardware and software than before. However, the increasing complexity of land-use/transport and environment system together with the constraint of limited resources allocated to the development task of transport modelling are putting pressure on the transport modelling task. Among fast growing computing technologies in recent years, object-oriented concept and component object model (COM) have continued to demonstrate their capability in laying fundamental layers for significant computing framework such as Microsoft Windows System. The use of such tools in implementing models of landuse/ transport and environment system opens up an opportunity to consider the extent to which a component object model framework can be constructed, re-used and customised to flexibly represent more complex models in a more resource effective way. This paper investigates the capability of the objectoriented concept as a candidate for structuring a COM framework for implementing models of land-use, transport and environmental impact system.
</description>
<pubDate>Sat, 01 Aug 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19336</guid>
<dc:date>1998-08-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Delays at Freeway roadworks: safety and road user cost considerations</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19341</link>
<description>Delays at Freeway roadworks: safety and road user cost considerations
Rose, Geoffrey; Paterson, Darryn
Freeway incidents are events which result in a temporary reduction in the capacity of the facility. Intelligent transport systems developments are primarily concerned with ‘random’ freeway incidents such as breakdowns, crashes, spilled loads etc. In contrast, relatively less attention has been given to ‘planned’ incidents such as maintenance activities. As part of a study aimed at predicting the delays associated with freeway incidents, this paper deals with issues associated with delays at major roadworks. A variety of data was collected as part of a case study of a major maintenance project on Melbourne’s M1 motorway. Vehicle delays were measured using a timed number plate survey. During periods of heavy delay, a number of vehicles were observed to execute illegal turns to avoid the traffic delays at the roadworks. There is evidence of a relationship between the occurrence of this behaviour and the corresponding level of delay at the roadworks. Road user delay costs were also estimated as part of the study. The potential role of an analytic delay model in maintenance planning is explored. This paper is to be presented at the 19th ARRB TR Conference to be held in Sydney, 6-11 December 1998.
</description>
<pubDate>Sun, 01 Nov 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19341</guid>
<dc:date>1998-11-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Implementation Of Road Safety Audit</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19351</link>
<description>Implementation Of Road Safety Audit
Daly, Peter; Francis, Tony; Morgan, Colin
</description>
<pubDate>Sun, 01 Nov 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19351</guid>
<dc:date>1998-11-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Work Design for Flexible Work Scheduling: Barriers and Gender Implications</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19317</link>
<description>Work Design for Flexible Work Scheduling: Barriers and Gender Implications
Brewer, Ann M.
This paper investigates the assumptions underlying three important dimensions of work design, place, distance and time, and their significant linkages to flexible work scheduling and travel behaviour. Work design, defined as the interrelationship of work tasks, workers and workplace routines, moderates the relationship between distributed work, flexible work scheduling and travel behaviour. Models of work design based on conventional views of place, distance and time are restrictive in supporting the potential of flexible work scheduling. Work practices that assume work is conducted only in the workplace (place), during standard work time (time) in the proximity of coworkers and managers (distance) do not, in the main, support flexible work scheduling. This paper considers the broader framework of organisational change and work design from the employer perspective in the context of distributed work and diffusion of communications technology, and its influence on flexible work scheduling.
</description>
<pubDate>Fri, 01 May 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19317</guid>
<dc:date>1998-05-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Road Rage: What, Who, When, Where and How?</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19326</link>
<description>Road Rage: What, Who, When, Where and How?
Brewer, Ann M.
Road rage is a form of aggressive behaviour by drivers on roadways. The paper addresses two questions: firstly, to what extent is road rage related to driver perceptions, characteristics and background? Secondly, how do drivers exhibit road rage? Recent media speculation implies that some drivers are more susceptible to road rage than others. For example, one commercial study indicated that women are increasingly the perpetrators of road rage. Although research of this kind makes good media headlines, there has been little serious scientific attention on this phenomenon. While the potential impacts of road rage are unknown, its major implication for road safety for drivers and others using roadways is apparent. Careful investigation into road rage may provide greater insight into the contributing factors of specific types of road accidents eg. culpable driving. It may also lead to the development of enhanced coping strategies for professional drivers. The focus of this paper is on firstly, the motivating and activating context of road rage and secondly, a theoretical perspective on roadway aggression and the diffusion of this form of travel behaviour.
</description>
<pubDate>Mon, 01 Jun 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19326</guid>
<dc:date>1998-06-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>"Quality of Life", Road Pricing and the "Level of Service" of Urban Roads</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19346</link>
<description>"Quality of Life", Road Pricing and the "Level of Service" of Urban Roads
Young, William; Daly, Peter
This paper addresses the definition of the “level of service” of urban roads in the context of developments in road pricing. It investigates the measurement of the “level of service”, technological developments in road tolling, drivers acceptance of road pricing, and the impacts of road pricing on the “quality of life” of urban areas.
</description>
<pubDate>Tue, 01 Sep 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19346</guid>
<dc:date>1998-09-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Forecasting Aircraft Movements: An Unavoidable Case of Uncertainty</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19340</link>
<description>Forecasting Aircraft Movements: An Unavoidable Case of Uncertainty
Hooper, Paul; Cain, Robert
Forecasting long-term aircraft movements for airport and air traffic control master planning has become more challenging in an era of deregulation and privatised airports. The demand for air travel has become more responsive to changes in prices and to income levels and assumptions about changes in these factors introduce a key source of error into forecasts. Further problems arise in working from passengers to aircraft movement forecasts. The need to incorporate judgements about the types of aircraft likely to become used over a 20 to 30 year horizon indicates the importance of understanding the long-term factors influencing airline competition. The paper considers a well-documented and thorough study undertaken 20 years ago to identify the sources of errors. We argue that a key area of improvement is in the combination of qualitative information about the future and statistical analyses of past trends. Furthermore, there is value in shifting the emphasis from prediction to management of uncertainty. Scenario methods are proposed as a form of participatory forecasting that allows managers and planners to learn how to deal with uncertainty and how to concentrate scarce forecasting resources on areas with the greatest payoffs.
</description>
<pubDate>Sat, 01 Aug 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19340</guid>
<dc:date>1998-08-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Reality Of Survey Results; An Urban Goods Movement Case Study</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19355</link>
<description>The Reality Of Survey Results; An Urban Goods Movement Case Study
Taylor, Samantha Y; Ogden, Kenneth W
Results from a commercial vehicle survey undertaken in Sydney, Australia show relative standard errors varying from 5% to 33%. When looking at similar survey data from around the world, very few explicitly state the accuracy of final results, which can be misleading to users. When errors are not quoted, many users assume the sampling error is so small it is not worthy of concern. However, in practical transport and traffic problems, there are very few situations where this is the case. In order to compare published results it is essential to know the sampling error so that conclusions can be drawn with confidence. This also enables scope for an evolving improvement in accuracy when variables with larger errors can be identified. Accuracy depends a lot on the survey methodology, response rate and rigour of the subsequent statistical analysis. And it also depends on the sample size and variability of the subject. This paper briefly describes the greater Sydney (Australia) commercial vehicle survey, it discusses the statistical analyses and highlights some important issues to consider in future surveys.
</description>
<pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19355</guid>
<dc:date>1998-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Applying Vehicle Tracking And Palmtop Technology To Urban Freight Surveys</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19342</link>
<description>Applying Vehicle Tracking And Palmtop Technology To Urban Freight Surveys
Taylor, Samantha Y; Green, Jeffrey; Richardson, Anthony Joseph
Following the success of the Victorian Activity &amp; Travel Survey (VATS) of household travel, the Transport Research Centre (TRC) initiated a Freight Activity &amp; Commercial Travel Survey (FACTS) to provide a much needed database of freight-related information for the Melbourne metropolitan area. The objective is to provide detailed, accurate and current data on freight travel and commercial activities in metropolitan Melbourne. FACTS aims to be an ongoing survey collecting information on travel, loading and unloading activities, the vehicle and some basic information on the driver. The survey design requires that information on vehicle location be collected using a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver, with GPS differential correction to increase accuracy to within 5m. This (GPS) tracking data will be linked to a Geographic Information System (GIS) package to allow vehicles to be geographically viewed as they move around the road network, and to enable mapping of the vehicle location with the underlying road network database. The GPS receiver will be linked to a palmtop computer housed in a portable Data Capture Unit (DCU) located within the vehicle cabin. A touch-screen on this palmtop will be used to obtain information from the driver about the loading and unloading stops.
</description>
<pubDate>Sun, 01 Mar 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19342</guid>
<dc:date>1998-03-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Searching for Policy Priorities in the Formulation of a Freight Transport Strategy: An Analysis of Freight Industry Attitudes Towards Policy Initiatives</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19320</link>
<description>Searching for Policy Priorities in the Formulation of a Freight Transport Strategy: An Analysis of Freight Industry Attitudes Towards Policy Initiatives
Hensher, David A.; Golob, Tom
An efficient and effective freight transport strategy can be aided by early professional contributions from key stakeholders. One broad group who have historically been given limited opportunity to influence the drafting of a freight strategy, at least in Australia, are commercial road users and shippers who manufacture and distribute goods. Utilising a data set collected in Australia in 1996 from a sample of organisations involved directly and indirectly in road freight transportation, views were sought on road infrastructure changes, new road infrastructure, non-road infrastructure needs, and transport policies. An optimal scaling approach using non-linear canonical correlation is implemented to search for structural relationships between the underlying policy and infrastructure dimensions and the various industry categories. This framework provides a very powerful mechanism for identifying policy priorities supported or otherwise by stakeholder classes.
</description>
<pubDate>Mon, 01 Jun 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19320</guid>
<dc:date>1998-06-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Work Design, Flexible Work Arrangements and Travel Behaviour: Policy Implications</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19172</link>
<description>Work Design, Flexible Work Arrangements and Travel Behaviour: Policy Implications
Brewer, Ann M.
This paper examines the assumptions of work design and its impact on how work is conceived and designed, the important linkages to travel behaviour to and from work and subsequent impacts on traffic mix in urban areas. These issues have not been substantively addressed by management or government and are forming a barrier to FWA. The focus of this paper is to look at the broader framework of work design in the context of the emergence of distributed work, diffusion of communications technology, and their influence on introducing real flexibility into work and its potential impact on travel behaviour. Specifically the study investigates the extent to which place, distance and time, the limiting dimensions in travel behaviour, serve as a major barrier to flexible work design and work scheduling. Flexible work arrangements will only become a reality by developing acceptable employment policies both at government and corporate levels. The paper concludes by analysing two policy options.
</description>
<pubDate>Wed, 01 Apr 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19172</guid>
<dc:date>1998-04-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Use of Object-Oriented Programming Approach in Representing Traffic Noise at the Network Level</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19171</link>
<description>The Use of Object-Oriented Programming Approach in Representing Traffic Noise at the Network Level
Ton, Tu
Existing road traffic noise models for a single noise receiver are developed with reasonably accurate estimating capability. If these traffic noise models can be incorporated into a network model then the resulting system would be a useful decision support system in transport planning. The key issue in developing a road traffic noise model at the network level is how to structure the basic traffic noise models in such a way that they can be flexibly re-used to construct more complex cases with many noise sources, noise receivers and noise barriers. This paper reports on the use of an object-oriented programming approach to address the identified issue.
</description>
<pubDate>Sun, 01 Mar 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19171</guid>
<dc:date>1998-03-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Private Sector Financing of Urban Services</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19170</link>
<description>Private Sector Financing of Urban Services
Stone, Alistair
</description>
<pubDate>Sun, 01 Feb 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19170</guid>
<dc:date>1998-02-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Needs Assessment for Major Transport Infrastructure Investment</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19072</link>
<description>Needs Assessment for Major Transport Infrastructure Investment
Hensher, David A.
Transportation infrastructure projects, like any investment, are ultimately accepted or rejected on a number of risk criteria. A most notable one is the revenue stream from the users of the facility. If the investment is to be justified on both commercial and social criteria, the risk is especially high; if there is an element of community social obligation (backed up by subsidy), then the revenue risk is of a different nature and typically much lower. The primary focus of this paper is on the continuing challenge of establishing ways to increase the reliability of traffic forecasts as a primary input in the forecast of revenue and the continuing role of in-depth attitudinal/opinion surveys with stakeholders to establish the needs agenda. The secondary focus is on promoting the case for a richer strategic systemwide approach to forecasting traffic demand for projects which has the capability of ranking specific infrastructure projects against alternative ways of improving the performance of the transport system in urban areas.
</description>
<pubDate>Wed, 01 Jul 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19072</guid>
<dc:date>1998-07-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>A Comparison of the Predictive Potential of Artificial Neural Networks and Nested Logit Models for Commuter Mode Choice</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19066</link>
<description>A Comparison of the Predictive Potential of Artificial Neural Networks and Nested Logit Models for Commuter Mode Choice
Hensher, David A.; Ton, Tu
Understanding and predicting traveller behaviour remains a complex activity. The set of tools in common use by practitioners and many of the tools used by researchers appear in many ways to exhibit complexity; yet often this richness of detail is in methods of estimation rather than in representation of how individuals actually evaluate alternatives and make decisions on a set of interrelated travel choices. Discrete choice methods championed by the multinomial logit model and its variants such as nested logit, heteroskedastic extreme value, and multinomial probit have added substantial behavioural richness into statistical specification and estimation (Hensher et al forthcoming), seeking to accommodate the role of both observed and unobserved influences on travel choices. The search for behavioural and analytical enhancement continues. Research in the field of artificial intelligence systems has been exploring the use of neural networks (eg Faghri and Hua 1991, Yang et al 1993) as a framework within which many traffic and transport problems can be studied. The main motivation for using neural networks could be due to some fascinating properties that neural networks possess. They are parallelism, the capacity to learn, allowing for the use of distributed memory and capacity for generalisation. Following these characteristics, one of the promises from neural networks is that they can tackle the problem of forecasting and modelling which is very common in travel demand modelling. The use of such tools in studying individual traveller behaviour opens up an opportunity to consider the extent to which there are representation frameworks which complement and/or replace existing analytical approaches. This paper explores the merits of neural networks as part of a revised framework within which to explore the processes of traveller decision making, and how discrete choice methods might be integrated within such a framework to acknowledge the important role that the latter tools have played in the last 25 years in the development of better practice in travel demand modelling.
</description>
<pubDate>Sun, 01 Feb 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19066</guid>
<dc:date>1998-02-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Interacting Agents and Discrete Choices in Logistics Outsourcing: A Conceptual Framework</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19065</link>
<description>Interacting Agents and Discrete Choices in Logistics Outsourcing: A Conceptual Framework
Hensher, David A.; Chow, Garland
This paper develops a framework within which multiple agents make discrete choices in respect of a common objective - namely the delivery of a consignment from its origin to its final destination. Ideas from game theory and discrete choice are combined to define a set of choice experiments in which agents (e.g. shippers and freight forwarders) interact in arriving at a choice outcome. Forward and backward linking stated choice experiments provide a capability to evaluate sequential-move and ‘one-shot’ simultaneous move negotiation regimes. We propose an empirical framework in which a controlled experiment is implemented on a sample of freight forwarders and shippers moving specific consignments to an international or domestic destination. We concentrate on the contract environment where negotiation, deals, repeat business are the trend in agent choices in logistic chains, in contrast to open-market competitive decision making.
</description>
<pubDate>Sun, 01 Feb 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19065</guid>
<dc:date>1998-02-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Distributed Work and Travel Behaviour: The Dynamics of Interactive Agency Choices between Employers and Employees</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19062</link>
<description>Distributed Work and Travel Behaviour: The Dynamics of Interactive Agency Choices between Employers and Employees
Brewer, Ann M.; Hensher, David A.
This paper develops a framework within which multiple agents make discrete choices in respect of a common objective - the determination of participation in distributed work, especially the opportunities and constraints associated with telecommuting. Ideas in discrete choice theory and game theory are combined to define a set of choice experiments in which employees and employers interact in arriving at a choice path in a distributed work context. A stated choice experiment with offers and feedback, known as an interactive agency choice experiment (IACE), is empirically investigated in the context of telecommuting options with an exploratory sample of employees and employers in Sydney, Australia. The approach highlights the role of information and negotiation in breaking down the barriers to more flexible work activity, to deliver potential benefits to the transport system such as reduced traffic congestion and environmental sustainability. The paper identifies the types of incentives that an employee/er has to offer the employer/employee in securing effective telecommuting.
</description>
<pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19062</guid>
<dc:date>1998-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Imbalance between Car and Public Transport Use in Urban Australia: Why Does it Exist?</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19067</link>
<description>The Imbalance between Car and Public Transport Use in Urban Australia: Why Does it Exist?
Hensher, David A.
Public transport in urban Australia is dominated by the automobile. As we approach the end of the 20th century, there is much renewed interest in revitalising urban public transport as one way of combating the increasing levels of traffic congestion and deterioration in air quality and global warming. This paper takes stock of the situation in Australia, identifying the challenges which the urban public transport sector face in redressing the imbalance between car and public transport market share. Particular emphasis is given to the role of buses and busways in contrast to rail, and strategies to reduce the attractiveness of the car.
</description>
<pubDate>Sun, 01 Mar 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19067</guid>
<dc:date>1998-03-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>A Comparison of Elasticities Derived from Multinomial Logit, Nested Logit and Heteroscedastic Extreme Value SP-RP Discrete Choice Models</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19064</link>
<description>A Comparison of Elasticities Derived from Multinomial Logit, Nested Logit and Heteroscedastic Extreme Value SP-RP Discrete Choice Models
Hensher, David A.; Louviere, Jordan J.
Developments in the estimation of discrete choice models which relax elements of the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property of the multinomial logit model (MNL) provide opportunities to explore the richer behavioural sensitivity of a choice model to changes in the levels of attributes influencing choice. Surprisingly, the literature offers limited evidence on the variations in sensitivity (ie elasticity) as we move from an MNL model based on revealed preference (RP) data, to MNL based on stated preference (SP) data, to combined RP-SP data estimated sequentially and jointly with partial relaxation of the differential variance in the unobserved effects by the ‘nested logit’ method, and then as free variance across all RP and SP alternatives by heteroscedastic extreme value (HEV) estimation. This paper draws on a data set collected in 6 Australian capital cities in 1994 to estimate a series of commuter mode choice models in the presence and absence of two ‘new’ alternatives (light rail and busway systems), to derive matrices of direct and cross point elasticities for travel cost and travel time. The evidence suggests that constraining the variance of the unobserved effects to varying degrees tends to over-estimate the elasticities sufficiently to distort the real behavioural sensitivity of specific attributes influencing choice. Furthermore, we seriously question the usefulness of studies which rely solely on SP data.
</description>
<pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19064</guid>
<dc:date>1998-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Measuring Total Factor Productivity of Airports - An Index Number Approach</title>
<link>https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19063</link>
<description>Measuring Total Factor Productivity of Airports - An Index Number Approach
Hooper, Paul; Hensher, David A.
</description>
<pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 1998 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19063</guid>
<dc:date>1998-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
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