https://hdl.handle.net/2123/17759 2026-06-13T23:55:01Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19157 Forecasting Tourism Travel on Rural Roads Bowyer, Darrell; Hooper, Paul The tourism sector is heavily reliant on the rural road system and it is not uncommon for the road and tourism authorities to receive submissions documenting perceived shortcomings of particular roads. This paper considers tourism demand in NSW and the development and application of analytical procedures for estimating the likely impact of future development scenarios on road-based tourism in NSW. A large number of demographic, socioeconomic and transport variables have influenced domestic and international tourism in NSW over recent decades. These include: population growth, household size and structure, vehicle ownership and operating costs and macro-economic decisions, such as tariff reductions. While future tourism demand is likely to be influenced by a range of variables, it is possible to specify several long term development scenarios which are likely to influence road-based tourism demand. These scenarios are defined by: population growth and distribution; road transport network development and private travel cost; and the attractiveness of tourist destinations. A spreadsheet-based analysis procedure has been developed and applied to estimate the impacts of each of the development scenarios. This has indicated that the long-term road-based tourism growth rate in NSW will be of the order of 2%, with the geographic distribution being influenced by the population and tourist facility development. 1993-08-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19165 TRIP FREQUENCY SCHEDULING FOR TERMINAL QUEUING BUS ROUTES Zhu, William Many public bus transit system in cities of developing countries have to operate in a very hectic traffic environment and are often subject to a terminal queuing process: buses and crews are placed into queues at terminals after they complete a trip instead of pre-assignment to specific trips before the start of daily operation. This special feature requires the development of a specific computerised trip frequency scheduling mechanism other than conventional trip frequency determination. This paper presents trip frequency scheduling methods taking into account the terminal queuing process, the fluctuating traffic conditions throughout the day, limited bus fleet size, and lack of parking spaces. An integer programming model is developed and two heuristic methods, one of which is based on linear programming and the other a straightforward derivation from the present bus operation practice, are presented. The resulting method is tested on two selected bus routes in Bangkok and extensive comparisons are made. It appears from the study that at similar exploitation costs significantly better service can be offered to the public. The method allows the bus company to systematically plan all its bus frequencies and to allocate buses to routes in a much more efficient way than at present. 2000-07-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19166 Approaching an Airline Network Model of Competitive Strategy in International Aviation: A Conceptual Framework Nyathi, Michael Z. 1993-07-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19168 The Value of Travel Time Savings and the Link with Income: Implications for Public Project Evaluation Waters II, W.G. This paper summarises the link between the value of travel time savings (VTTS) and income levels found in various empirical studies. Most studies find that VTTS increases with income but less than proportionately. A square root relationship with household income relative to mean incomes is suggested as a useful approximation, although no theoretical support is offered. Actual project evaluations generally ignore changes in VTTS with income, i.e., government agencies follow an equity principle and value time the same for all users. But this results in an asymmetric treatment of benefits and costs. Benefit-cost studies normally do not make an income adjustment for monetary benefits and costs, but ignoring the link between incomes and VTTS means agencies do implicitly make an income adjustment for time savings. This could distort project ranking depending on the relative importance of time versus monetary benefits and costs, and/or the mix of income- and timeconstrained travellers affected by the project. 1993-07-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19161 Crew Size Determination for Terminal Queuing Operation of a Bus Route Zhu, William High demand for public transport and hectic traffic conditions subjects the bus operations on a bus route in cities of developing countries to a terminal queuing process: buses and crews are placed into queues at terminals waiting for an assignment of a trip after they complete a trip. For this type of bus operation, complementary guidelines for real-time bus and crew scheduling are discussed, followed by the development of formulae for the relationship between hired and daily crew sizes based on the work requirements by bus schedules and holiday variations, which can be used to determine minimum crew sizes to cover work requirements. A case study on a depot in the Bangkok bus transit system was used to illustrate the formulae. The results show the insufficiency of crew sizes employed by the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority (BMTA), verifying the inefficiency of the current operation. 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19169 Variations in the Value of Travel Time Savings: Empirical Studies and the Values for Road Project Evaluation Waters II, W.G. This paper focuses on the variations in values of travel time savings (VTTS) found in different empirical studies and used for road project evaluation in a number of countries and jurisdictions. Estimates of VTTS, expressed as a percentage of the wage, from 56 empirical studies show a substantial range, over a ten-fold variation. The estimates cluster between about 30 to 50 percent of the wage, but this is still sizeable variation across studies. The VTTS used for road project evaluations are compiled from a number of agencies and countries, and expressed in a common currency. The range of values is substantial, not just across countries but across agencies within a country. Because of the importance of time savings in transport project evaluation, this implies considerable inconsistency in the application of economic analysis to road project evaluation in different jurisdictions. There is a need not only for more research on VTTS but more communication about the figures being used in project evaluation frameworks. 1993-07-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19167 A Review of Recent Bicycle Related Safety Research in Australia Katz, Roderick J.; Smith, Nariida C. This paper examines the recent research in relation to bicycle safety carried out in Australia. Australian road authorities in particular have been active in conducting and commissioning bicycle safety research in recent years. This research has been complemented, and to some extent stimulated, by other sources such as bicycle groups and university research centres. The focus of much of the research has been on the assessment of cyclist risk exposure in absolute terms, relative to other modes and comparisons of casualty rates between different categories of cyclist. A clear distinction is drawn between exposure comparisons and evidence of causal relationships . Factors investigated for association are discussed and the research seeking to establish causation is also considered. The research into alternative measures for reducing bicycle crashes and for reducing severity of injury when they occur is discussed with a particular focus on research into helmets; their effectiveness, programmes to increase levels of use, impact of increased helmet wearing on serious injury rates, and the impact of the compulsory helmet wearing laws introduced in Australia since 1990. 1993-09-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19048 LIGHT RAIL AND BUS PRIORITY SYSTEMS: CHOICE OR BLIND COMMITMENT? Hensher, David A.; Waters II, W. G. The debate over light rail transit (LRT) systems is often a confrontation between advocates and opponents of LRT systems. It is difficult to separate real evidence from opinion about LRT. We review evidence and viewpoints about LRT systems in comparison to bus priority systems (BPS), the latter often combined with high occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes. Bus-rail comparisons are difficult because people tend to think of existing bus services which are constrained to share congested roads with cars for most of their routes. But there are a few examples of extensive dedicated busways or HOV lanes, these bus operations are more akin to LRT systems. BPSs are capable of moving comparable volumes of people at less cost than LRT. Where BPS and HOV systems are in use, they appear to move more people than are being moved in established LRT systems. LRT systems may have an advantage in influencing land-use in a way which will promote greater reliance on public transit. But it appears that similar impacts can be achieved by bus-based systems. There is a need for closer study and analysis of busways and HOV lanes. It is also important to recognize that neither BPS nor LRT are likely to have much impact on overall mode split unless substantial steps are taken to discourage single occupant motor vehicles. 1993-10-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19060 LOCAL URBAN BUS SERVICES: Natural Monopoly and Benchmark Contestability Hensher, David A. This paper has been prepared to document the arguments and any available evidence to establish the extent to which local bus services operating in a pre-defined territory are a natural monopoly and/or are contestable. This issue is critical to the debate on the extent to which territorial monopolies in the market are sufficiently exposed to potential competition under the NSW 1990 Passenger Transport Act to provide the equivalent of the competitive effect of economic deregulation of price, quality and quantity controls. Importantly, we consider the argument that local bus services are a natural monopoly and that the threat of competitive tendering if non-compliance will achieve an outcome which is at least as desirable as the positive outcomes of economic deregulation without the negative outcomes. We cite a number of studies which have monitored competition or the absence of it in deregulated bus markets. We conclude with the view that the local bus market is not contestable under the very precise definition of contestability promoted by economists. But the idea of 'benchmark contestability' whereby operators through improved performance contribute to adjusting the price (i.e. maximum fare), and quality controls (i.e. minimum levels of service and average age of the fleet) is an appealing surrogate for the role of market forces in an imperfect market in maximising the efficiency of operations in accordance with the ideals of social welfare maximisation without subsidy. 1993-08-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19057 The Transportation Sector: Economic Issues and Challenges in the Nineties Hensher, David A. This paper discusses a number of initiatives undertaken in Australia to improve the efficiency of the transport sector, long recognised as one of the most inefficient links in the economic cycle of production, distribution and consumption. We use examples of practice in government trading enterprises (rail, bus, ports, airports), as well as private sector benchmarks (private bus and trucking). The paper also outlines some of the topical issues such as the 'blind' commitment to light rail, road user charges, safety and truck driving hours, and the future of our cities. 1993-04-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19061 A Bounded-Size Likelihood Test for Non- Nested Probabilistic Discrete Choice Models Estimated from Choice-Based Samples Horowitz, Joel L.; Hensher, David A.; Zhu, William Discrete-choice models of the hierarchical logit form enable the analyst to configure tree structures and to investigate the relative statistical and behavioural strengths of alternative hierarchies. The alternative tree structures can be nested or nonnested in a specification sense, and the underlying sample of observations can be exogenous or endogenous. When the sample is endogenous (i.e. choice based) and alternative tree structures are non-nested in a statistically comparative sense, the conventional likelihood ratio tests for comparisons of exogenously sampled nested hierarchical models are not appropriate. This paper presents a bounded-size likelihood ratio test for non-nested discrete choice models estimated from choice-based samples. The tests are presented with and without correction for sample size. We apply the test using a sample of four transport modes for long distance non-business travel in Australia. 1993-11-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19053 STATED PREFERENCE ANALYSIS OF TRAVEL CHOICES: THE STATE OF PRACTICE Hensher, David A. Stated preference (SP) methods are widely used in travel behaviour research and practice to identify behavioural responses to choice situations which are not revealed in the market, and where the attribute levels offered by existing choices are modified to such an extent that the reliability of revealed preference models as predictors of response is brought into question. This paper reviews recent developments in the application of SP models which add to their growing relevance in demand modelling and prediction. The main themes addressed include a comparative assessment of choice models and preference models, the importance of scaling when pooling different types of data, especially the appeal of SP data as an enriching strategy in the context of revealed preference models, hierarchical designs when the number of attributes make single experiments too complex for the respondent, and ways of accommodating dynamics (i.e. serial correlation and state dependence) in SP modelling. 1993-03-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19058 Using Total Factor Productivity and Data Envelopment Analysis for Performance Comparisons Among Government Enterprises: Concepts and Issues Hensher, David A.; Waters II, W. G. The purpose of this paper is to review and comment on a number of popular methods of performance measurement, in particular total factor productivity and data envelopment analysis; and to draw attention to potential pitfalls or misinterpretations which can arise in using these techniques. Potential users may not be aware that there are a number of different formulations and interpretations of these concepts, and that numerical measures of performance can vary considerably even when a consistent performance measure is being used. 1993-04-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19044 Vehicle Replacement Costing With Age and Budget Constraints Hensher, David A.; Zhu, William 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19043 HAZARD-BASED DURATION MODELS AND THEIR APPLICATION TO TRANSPORTATION ANALYSIS Hensher, David A.; Mannering, Fred L. A number of transportation-related phenomena deal with a time element that defines the duration until an event's occurrence. Examples include the time that transpires until a trip is made, the length of time a commuter delays a trip departure to avoid traffic congestion, and the time until a newly introduced mode is used. Hazard-based duration models, which have enjoyed widespread use in a number of non-transportation fields (e.g. economics, biostatistics), are an obvious choice for modeling such transportation phenomena. The objective of this paper is to present hazard-based models, in a general way, to individuals interested in transportation problems. In so doing, every effort is made to avoid a jargon-laidened approach that typifies current articles and texts on the subject. It is hoped that such a presentation, along with an overview of existing transportation applications of such models, will lead to an increased use of hazard-based duration models in transportation. 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19051 An Overview of PIMMS (A Pricing and Investment Model for Multi-Modal Systems): An Areawide Urban Transport Policy Evaluation Model Hensher, David A.; Waters II, W.G.; Zhu, William; Daniels, Rhonda The resurgence of interest in building better cities provides an opportunity to develop improved land use-transport models; models which are responsive to a wide variety of planning options, in contrast to current urban transport models which are only suitable for evaluating a limited number of major infrastructure options. A wide set of policy tools includes new infrastructure such as private tolled roads, light rail, bus priority systems; travel demand management through road pricing, area licensing and banning of cars in particular locations; and land use incentives/disincentives such as zoning for higher density activity, and more stringent environmental standards. To be responsive to a wide range of policy choices, it is desirable to develop models with a strong foundation in individual behaviour. This paper presents an overview of a project funded by the Australian Research Council. The aim is to develop a computer-based forecasting tool to give planners more flexibility in evaluating strategies designed to improve the performance of cities. 1993-02-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19046 ECONOMIC REWARD AND ON-ROAD PERFORMANCE OF LONG DISTANCE TRUCKING: AN ECONOMETRIC ASSESSMENT Hensher, David A.; Battellino, Helen C.; Daniels, Rhonda This paper reports the results of an econometric analysis of the influences on economic reward and on-road behaviour of long distance truck drivers in Australia. Drawing on a 1990 survey of a sample of 800 truck drivers selected from owner drivers and employee drivers, we identify the important role that rates of pay and the payment method have on the propensity to speed. The richness of the data enables us to evaluate the endogenous linkage between speeding, the taking of pills, and the self-imposition of schedules, as well as identify industry practices which have desirable and undesirable impacts on the performance of drivers. The empirical findings corroborate anecdotal evidence on the issues which need action in the interests of minimising the negative externalities of an essentially efficient and safe industry. 1993-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19059 The Transport Disadvantaged – Community Transport or Mainstream? Battellino, Helen C.; Hensher, David A. This paper is based on a study undertaken for the New South Wales Department of Transport in 1991 to examine the cost of providing transport services for the aged and those with disabilities through the Community Transport program. A sample of Community Transport Projects in N.S.W. country and metropolitan areas was studies in detail and data collected on the costs of operating the modes which they used to provide transport for the aged and disabled. A cost model was then developed to determine the factors which influence the cost per vehicle kilometre for each service delivery based on the data collected. Discussions were also held with users of the service to determine the quality of service provided by each of the modes. The results of this study are discussed within the context of the changes which have occurred in the N.S.W. bus industry as a result of the 1990 Passenger Transport Act which now gives operators greater opportunity to plan services to meet the needs of the market in their local area. 1993-07-01T00:00:00Z