https://hdl.handle.net/2123/17666 2026-06-13T10:51:04Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19473 Joint estimation of process and outcome in choice experiments involving attribute framing Hensher, David A. There is a growing interest and recognition that the study of discrete choice outcomes should take into account the process rules that are used to establish eligibility of each attribute. This applies to both revealed preference and stated choice data but is especially relevant in the context of choice experiments where the analyst traditionally assumes the relevancy of all attributes imposed on the respondent through a series of choice sets. This paper proposes a joint processoutcome model in which the choices made are conditioned on the rules adopted by each respondent in assessing the attributes packaged in the definition of each alternative. We set out a joint model for four attribute processing rules and three alternatives (including a reference alternative), and estimate two sets of panel-based mixed logit models – one set in which we ignore the attribute processing rules and one set in which we explicitly account for the rules. We integrate the inclusion/exclusion rules and ‘code’ the outcomes of various prospects (i.e., alternatives) as either gains or losses relative to a reference point. Using data from a commuter car trip study of unlabelled packages of times and cost attributes (including a toll), we identify willingness to pay distributions for travel time savings under the various process rules. The main finding is that failing to account for the process rules tends to result in statistically higher mean estimates of values of travel time savings. 2007-03-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19566 Evacuation plan evaluation: Assessment of vehicular evacuation schemes by means of an analytical dynamic traffic model Pel, Adam J.; Bliemer, Michiel C.J. An evacuation model is posed, combining a dynamic travel demand component, an adaptive travel choice behaviour component, and a dynamic network loading component. The travel demand component considers the primary choice facing the endangered residents, whether to participate in the evacuation, and if so, when to depart. The travel choice behaviour component considers the secondary choice facing the evacuees, where to seek refuge and by which route to travel towards this safe destination. The network loading component considers both the dynamic traffic and hazard conditions, and propagates the evacuees through the infrastructure network. The proposed model can act on a broad spectrum of hazards, as it uses general features to compute the effects of the hazard on the evacuation. Furthermore, the model structure enables the assessment of various categories of evacuation, ranging from voluntary over recommended to mandatory. And, the behavioural responses of the evacuees towards evacuation instructions are modelled, such that instructions can be followed fully, followed in part, or rejected completely. An illustrative example of a hypothetical evacuation shows the principles and possibilities of the posed evacuation model. 2007-10-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19486 Extending stated choice analysis to recognise agentspecific attribute endogeneity in bilateral group negotiation and choice: A think piece Puckett, Sean M.; Hensher, David A.; Rose, John M. This paper is a think piece on variations in the structure of stated preference studies when modelling the joint preferences of interacting agents who have the power to influence the attribute levels on offer. The approach proposed is an extension of standard stated choice methods. Known as ‘stated endogenous attribute level’ (SEAL) analysis, it allows for interactive agents to adjust attribute levels off a base stated choice specification that are within their control, in an effort to reach agreement in an experimental setting. This accomplishes three goals: (1) the ability to place respondents in an environment that more closely matches interactive settings in which some attribute levels are endogenous to a specific agent, should the modeller wish to capture such behaviour; (2) the improved ability of the modeller to capture the behaviour in such settings, including a greater wealth of information on the related interaction processes, rather than simply outcomes; and (3) the expansion of the set of situations that the modeller can investigate using experimental data. 2007-03-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19557 Port productivity analysis by using DEA: A case study in Malaysia Ng, Ada Suk Fung; Lee, Chee Xui Recent trends in containerized trade have led to the importance of measuring the performance of container ports. In Malaysia, container ports are mostly situated along the Straits of Malacca, one of the most important shipping lanes in the world. Two of its ports, Port Klang and Port of Tanjung Pelepas (PTP) are ranked amongst the top 20 container ports in the world. In particular, PTP is ranked 16 in 2004, even though it is just a young port which started its operations in October 1999. This paper aims to quantitatively measure the productivity of Malaysian container ports. A cross-sectional performance measurement is carried out, using a DEA approach. To further assess the productivity of the ports over time, a set of panel data is analyzed. In order to compare the productivity of the Malaysian ports with world standards, Port of Singapore is added as a reference. 2007-07-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19551 Climate Change, Enhanced Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Passenger Transport – What can we do to make a difference? Hensher, David A. Climate change, global warming and enhanced greenhouse gas emissions (GGEs) are hot topics for many reasons, including scientific and speculative. The transportation sector, led by the automobile, has been cited constantly as a major contributor through human intervention to climate change. The media and lobby groups have, for many years escalated the case for finding ways to reduce the impact that people movement has on enhanced GGEs. Governments have ramped up the rhetoric to gain political support. Short of banning car use, the challenge remains one of understanding better what mix of actions might contribute in non-marginal ways to reducing the growth of GGEs (primarily CO2) and even reduce the absolute amount of CO2 produced by automobility. This paper evaluates potentially effective instruments that are aimed at a number of policy objectives linked to the triple bottom line – efficiency, sustainability and equity – focussing on social surplus gains in addition to cost effectiveness; but in particular the ability to reduce CO2. We use TRESIS, an integrated transport, land use and environmental strategy impact simulation program, developed by the author, to assess the influence on CO2 of a number of ‘at source’ and ‘mitigation’ instruments such as improvements in fuel efficiency, a carbon tax, congestion charging, variable user charges, and improvements in public transit. We apply TRESIS to the Sydney metropolitan area with instruments enacted in 2010 up to 2015. There are some instruments that can reduce CO2 in the passenger transport sector by 5 percent over the next 8 years, with some more politically palatable, although requiring a greater amount of investment outlay by government. A mix of technological improvement linked to fuel efficiency and pricing of car use offer the most balanced way forward in terms of impacts on all stakeholders, especially in preserving government revenue sources and the opportunity to re-invest back into the transport sector through improved multi-modal infrastructure. 2007-05-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19555 The dark side of making transit irresistible: The example of France Bouf, Dominique; Hensher, David A. The French experience in developing policies to reduce car use in metropolitan areas is presented in this paper as an illustration of the lack of recognition of the broader set of criteria on which specific policy frameworks should be judged. One of the major challenges, and often failings of policies focussed on reducing car use, is the lack of a structure that ensures that the downside impacts are not relocated to other parts of a system such that potential gains end up being eroded by the potential losses. We draw on experiences throughout France as well as case studies in Lyon, to highlight the dark side of French transport policy promoting a switch from car to public transit and nonmotorised modes, in terms of financial, equity, and environmental outcomes. 2007-05-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19553 Assessing pedestrian exposure to fine particulates at fine levels of spatio-temporal resolution Greaves, Stephen; Liu, Qian A compelling body of international evidence now exists suggesting a causal link between exposure to airborne particulate matter (PM) and adverse health consequences. Travel microenvironments have come under particular scrutiny because PM levels are known to be substantially higher than ambient levels from Fixed Site Monitors (FSMs) on which air quality assessments are based and because people significant proportion of time travelling (e.g., 80 minutes/day in Sydney). Over the last two years, we have developed and tested an approach for assessing the risk of exposure to PM at fine levels of temporal and spatial resolution while travelling by various modes of transport. The approach combines the capabilities of personal Global Positioning System (GPS) technology, portable particle monitors, and voice-recorded information on unusual events, to shed new light on the inherent variability in PM and importantly the location, duration and magnitude of ‘hotspots’. The current paper addresses the critical issue of pedestrian exposure along a busy mixed-use roadway environment in Sydney. We present descriptive and statistical evidence of the key factors impacting overall exposure while walking, the most important of which are general traffic conditions, ambient weather conditions (particularly windspeed), and time-of-day (worse in the morning). We then conduct a ‘hotspot’ analysis in which elevated readings are cross-compared to the information on the tape-recorder. It is clear and striking that particular vehicles (buses, trucks) and events (other pedestrian’s smoking) are highly significant and cannot be ignored if we are to accurately assess and minimise exposure in the future. 2007-05-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19570 The multiple discretecontinuous extreme value (MDCEV) model: Role of utility function parameters, identification considerations, and model extensions Bhat, Chandra R. Many consumer choice situations are characterized by the simultaneous demand for multiple alternatives that are imperfect substitutes for one another. A simple and parsimonious Multiple Discrete-Continuous Extreme Value (MDCEV) econometric approach to handle such multiple discreteness was formulated by Bhat (2005) within the broader Kuhn-Tucker (KT) multiple discrete-continuous economic consumer demand model of Wales and Woodland (1983). This paper examines several issues associated with the MDCEV model and other extant KT multiple discrete-continuous models. Specifically, the paper proposes a new utility function form that enables clarity in the role of each parameter in the utility specification, presents identification considerations associated with both the utility functional form as well as the stochastic nature of the utility specification, extends the MDCEV model to the case of price variation across goods and to general error covariance structures, discusses the relationship between earlier KT-based multiple discretecontinuous models, and illustrates the many technical nuances and identification considerations of the multiple discretecontinuous model structure through empirical examples. The paper also highlights the technical problems associated with the stochastic specification used in the KT-based multiple discretecontinuous models formulated in recent Environmental Economics papers. 2007-11-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19559 A mixed generalized ordered response model for examining pedestrian and bicyclist injury severity level in traffic crashes Eluru, Naveen; Bhat, Chandra R; Hensher, David A. This paper proposes an econometric structure for injury severity analysis at the level of individual accidents that recognizes the ordinal nature of the categories in which injury severity are recorded, while also allowing flexibility in capturing the effects of explanatory variables on each ordinal category and allowing heterogeneity in the effects of contributing factors due to the moderating influence of unobserved factors. The model developed here, referred to as the mixed generalized ordered-response logit (MGORL) model, generalizes the standard ordered-response models used in the extant literature for injury severity analysis. To our knowledge, this is the first such formulation to be proposed and applied in the econometric literature in general, and in the safety analysis literature in particular. The MGORL model is applied to examine non-motorist injury severity in accidents in the USA, using the 2004 General Estimates System (GES) database. The empirical findings emphasize the inconsistent results obtained from the standard ordered response model. An important policy result from our analysis is that the general pattern and relative magnitude of elasticity effects of injury severity determinants are similar for pedestrians and bicyclists. The analysis also suggests that the most important variables influencing non-motorist injury severity are the age of the individual (the elderly are more injury-prone), the speed limit on the roadway (higher speed limits lead to higher injury severity levels), location of crashes (those at signalized intersections are less severe than those elsewhere), and time-of-day (darker periods lead to higher injury severity). 2007-08-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19461 Planning Approximations to the Length of TSP and VRP Problems Figliozzi, Miguel Andres This paper studies parsimonious, intuitive, and effective formulas to approximate the length of Traveling Salesman Problems (TSP) and Vehicle Routing Problems (VRP). Using intuition derived from continuous models and graph theory, a formula to approximate the length of vehicle routes is proposed. In instances with different patterns of customer spatial distribution, time windows, customer demands, and depot locations are used to test the proposed approximation. Regression results show that the approximation can reasonably predict the length of TSP and VRP problems in randomly generated problems and real urban networks. Expressions for the incremental cost of serving an additional customer or increasing the number of routes are derived and estimated. The main contribution of this paper is to develop and test intuitive approximations to TSP and VRP problem in general settings. The approximations are valuable for strategic and planning analysis of transportation and logistics problems. 2007-03-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19561 Value chain positioning: Performance and partnerships Walters, David The value chain is widely discussed by academics and practitioners. Among the numerous issues to be resolved one is of pressing importance; where in an industry value chain should the individual firm operate. The traditional strategy models would suggest that a SWOT or PEST analysis would resolve this problem; however it is likely only to present a partial solution. While both techniques have their merits they do not answer contemporary issues such of those of intra and inter-organisational costs and control. This working paper explores current thinking in value chain analysis and management and introduces contributions from the expanding literature in attempt at moving the topic closer to resolving an important question that many organisations seek an answer for: just where in the value chain should I locate? Who with? And for how long? 2007-09-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19478 Daytime Population Tracking for Planning and Pollution Exposure Assessment Collins, Andrew; Greaves, Stephen Knowing more precisely where people are across the day and when they are there is fundamental information for many fields including transportation planning, environmental impact analysis, marketing and emergency evacuation. In this paper, we adapt a methodology originally proposed by Roddis and Richardson (1998) for tracking populations across the day using large household travel survey databases. Using five-year pooled data from the Sydney HTS, we effectively take population ‘snapshots’ of the city every 5 minutes, and locate the population using the origin-destination, time and weighting information from the survey sample. We then apply the approach to two different case studies, namely 1) emergency evacuation in the Sydney CBD, and 2) environmental exposure to noise pollution. Through the case studies we demonstrate the various strengths of the approach as well as the caveats, which primarily relate to sample size issues for small-area applications, our ability to rely on people to accurately record where they go, and the frequent need to examine weekday and weekend populations separately. In the case of environmental exposure, we need to understand the production and dispersion behavior of the various pollutant types, if we wish to understand a ‘dynamic’ population exposure to each of these pollutants more precisely. 2007-03-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19567 The implications of interactions theory and application for value chain management Walters, David As organisation structures become flexible in the response to market opportunities it is interesting to probe the underlying reasons that have facilitated these developments. It is not the just attraction of low capital intensity and diversified risk that makes the virtual organisation attractive. Transaction economics (Coase: 1937 and Williamson: 1985) identified the choices available to the firm: essentially a comparison between the relative costs of using internal resources and those of external suppliers. If the external sourcing option is lower cost and comparable (acceptable quality etc) the economic solution was to outsource. One of the cost items that influenced the choice was that of assembling the information required to make the decision; another was the process of negotiation, the transaction process required, and any subsequent follow-up activities. The development of information communication technology (its costs, accuracy and accessibility) had a huge impact on the overall costs. What have been described as interactions are the processes that are engaged when organisations relate with each other in sourcing and procurement decisions; interaction costs occur as these processes are engaged. This paper introduces the topic and explores the implications for value production networks. 2007-11-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19564 Combining RP and SP data: Biases in using the nested logit ‘trick’ – contrasts with flexible mixed logit incorporating panel and scale effects Hensher, David A.; Rose, John; Greene, William H It has become popular practice that joint estimation of choice models that use stated preference (SP) and revealed preference (RP) data requires a way of adjusting for scale to ensure that parameter estimates across data sets are not confounded by differences in scale. The nested logit ‘trick’ presented in Hensher and Bradley (1993) continues to be widely used, especially by practitioners, to accommodate scale differences. This modelling strategy has always assumed that the observations are independent, a condition of all GEV models, which is not strictly valid within a stated preference experiment with repeated choice sets and between each SP observation and the single RP data point. This paper promotes the replacement of the NL ‘trick’ method with an error components model that can accommodate correlated observations as well as reveal the relevant scale parameter for subsets of alternatives. Such a model can also incorporate “state” or reference dependence between data types and preference heterogeneity on observed attributes. An example illustrates the difference in empirical evidence. 2007-09-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19568 Beyond the supply chain: An operations response system as an efficient means of implementing a “customercentric” market response Walters, David; Rainbird, Mark Supply chain management would appear to be at the end of its lifecycle. Customers of all types are expressing preferences based upon some degree of product-service differentiation and not simply on cost. The growing interest in mass customisation and product platforms is evidence of these developments. Supply chain devotees argue that it (the supply chain) is capable of adequate response to these changes while others suggest the demand chain better serves the current market place. This article suggests that while the supply chain is by no means obsolete it can be argued that it is obsolescent and should be replaced by a more proactive response system. We explore demand chain analysis and demand chain management and show how an “operations response system” is a worthy successor and a possible way to integrate the facilitating technology now available with a dynamic marketplace. 2007-11-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19466 NSW Government: Urban Transport Statement: Some Comments Stone, Alastair This paper, a sequel to Stone (2006), comments on recent New South Wales Premiers Department’s papers on transport policy matters in New South Wales. It focuses on the Urban Transport Statement, which is set in the context of State Plan: A New Direction for NSW, State Infrastructure Strategy, and Sydney Metropolitan Strategy March 2006 – City of Cities, which were all published in 2006. The comments highlight the continuing use of a number of distortions in language and concepts plus some notable absences such as the discussion of congestion pricing and planning for freight that limit the State’s prospects for optimizing Sydney’s transport service. Among the distortions are the continued separate discussion of demand for road and rail as if they are not related, and also the lack of appreciation of how demand expresses itself as firstly a demand for accessibility and secondly as trips. The continued use of demand forecasts without explicit recognition of the constraints on land availability, especially in the CBD is noted. The shift from project orientation to products and corridors is applauded. However this paper makes a plea to move the discussion to the supply of network service that meets the demand for accessibility. But the absence of explicit discussion of both congestion pricing and the urban freight challenge is a major omission given the ambition to set the scene for urban transport with the Statement. The discussions about a Metro draw comment for what is not said about the existing rail system, and the governance arrangements for coordination planning and operations draws comment for the continuation of an apparent ambition to spread responsibility as broadly as possible. 2007-03-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19474 Using Rudyard Kipling to design value chain processes: An application of interactions theory Walters, David “I keep Six Honest Serving Men, (They taught me all I know), their names are What and Why and When, And How and Where and Who.” Egan (1998) reminds us how important these characters are in their role of ‘life long learning’ as the dynamics of contemporary business models stress the importance of currency in information management in a business model that has become customer centric. Information communications technology (ICT), with its constantly improving, reach, richness and relevance (time and accuracy) offers the Six Loyal Serving Men the convenience of IT rapid delivery speed and low costs to service the demands that customers’ and stakeholder partners’ expectations require. For this to be an effective application of ICT both should understand the specific applications of tacit, transactional and transformational interactions. 2007-05-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19550 Achieving competitive advantage through strategic and operational partnering in the value chain: The Asia Pacific challenge Walters, D; Rainbird, Mark The Asia Pacific region has witnessed many changes in recent years. For much of the last 15/20 years it has been the source of low-cost production of labour intensive products. More recently there has been a significant shift in economic and business activity. Following the initiative of Singapore, other Asian economies have sought to emulate Singapore’s patterns of growth. Rather than be just another source of low-cost labour (competitive necessity) many are now seeking to create competitive advantage by pursuing government sponsored strategies to establish leadership in knowledge, technology, process and relationship management based industries raising interesting problems and opportunities for Australasian companies. 2007-05-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19562 Behavioural responses of freight transporters and shippers to road user charging schemes: An empirical assessment Hensher, David A.; Puckett, Sean M Heavy goods vehicles not only have a non-marginal impact on the performance of the road network in terms of traffic congestion, exposure to risk and accidents, they also provide an essential service in the distribution chain. Both sellers and purchasers of goods rely on an efficient transport system to ensure that goods are available at a time and location that meets the demands of end users. As congestion on the road network grows, especially in urban areas, the calls for ‘solutions’ increase. Although many of the suggestions to resolve delays due to traffic avoid the call for reform of road pricing, there is a growing recognition that user charges have to be more closely aligned to user cost and user benefit. Aiding this call is a technological capability now in place to facilitate a fine tuning of variable users charges that is inter-operable across networks and almost seamless to the customer. The major challenge we face is behavioural – a need to understand more fully the role that specific charging regimes might play in the distribution of freight and who in the supply chain is affected by specific charges in terms of willingness to pay for the gains in network efficiency. This chapter investigates the potential influence of variable user charges, relative to fuel prices (the current main source of charging), in the freight distribution chain. A choice modelling framework is presented that identifies potential responses from the freight distribution sector to variable user charging within the context of the wider spectrum of costs imposed on the sector, as well as the potential benefits (e.g. time savings) from alternative pricing regimes. We highlight the role that agents in the distribution chain play in influencing sensitivity to variable user charges. 2007-09-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19572 Power, concession and cooperation in freight distribution chains subject to distance-based user charges Hensher, David A.; Puckett, Sean M. Freight transport plays an important role within the functions of the road network, yet little is understood about the potential impacts of some travel demand management strategies on freight transport activity. This arises, in part, due to the interdependent nature of decision making within supply chains. To contribute to this shortcoming, this paper offers empirical results from a method designed to estimate attribute-specific measures of relative influence within decision making groups. A choice modelling framework is utilised to consider the relative concession decision makers are willing to make toward the preferences of other group members when attempting to reach group choice equilibrium. The estimated influence measures highlight the relative power each type of decision maker holds with respect to each attribute within the candidate alternatives from which to choose. The alternatives represent supply chain strategies for adjusting to a hypothetical distancebased road user charging system in Sydney, Australia. The measures can be utilised in subsequent transport distribution models to account for the impact each decision maker may have on the decisions made at the group (i.e., supply chain) level in response to a given policy. The results are also useful in gaining a greater normative understanding of the decision-making dynamics within transporter-shipper dyads. 2007-11-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19558 Predicting fine particulate concentrations near a busy intersection in Sydney using artificial neural networks Issarayangyun, Tharit; Greaves, Stephen Scientific evidence of the connection between vehicle emissions and public health outcomes continues to grow. Key to this connection is the accurate monitoring and prediction of pollution concentrations within transport microenvironments at fine levels of spatial and temporal disaggregation. This paper explores the potential for using Artificial Neural Networks for such a purpose, focusing on temporallydisaggregate prediction of PM2.5 concentrations for a busy intersection in Sydney. The main findings are that with knowledge of ambient PM2.5 concentrations, traffic volumes and weather conditions, the approach is able to explain over 90 percent of the variation in PM2.5 concentrations at the intersection, and over 70 percent of the variation when applied to an independent data set collected at the same location. 2007-08-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/19573 Selective developments in choice analysis and a reminder about the dimensionality of behavioural analysis Hensher, David A.; Rose, John M; Puckett, Sean Developments in data and modeling paradigms in choice analysis are occurring at a fast pace. A review of activity leading up to each IATBR conference shows progress on many fronts. This paper takes a selective view of some of these developments, especially those that have been close to the research program of the authors. We focus on four broad themes – information processing strategies, especially in the context of stated choice studies; agency interdependency (with a strong applied focus), developments in the design of choice experiments, and a smorgasbord of themes centered on expanding the behavioral capabilities (and longer term forecasting accuracy) of discrete choice models, especially in terms of their recognition of ways of accommodating the other themes in the paper. 2007-11-01T00:00:00Z