https://hdl.handle.net/2123/7730 2026-06-04T18:21:19Z 2026-06-04T18:21:19Z Schaerf, Tim https://hdl.handle.net/2123/8005 2026-05-05T12:33:02Z 2011-07-06T00:00:00Z

Is it Bad to Make Use of Unverified Information? Schaerf, Tim Agent-based models are often used to study problems of group decision making and group movement from the animal kingdom. Some of the most thoroughly studied processes that have been modelled using agent-based models are the nest-site selection processes of social insects, particularly ants and honey bees. During nest-site selection group members are faced with the problem of choosing the best possible new site to house a colony, but it is also desirable to make the decision over a relatively short time period (an example is the speed-accuracy trade-off). The move from an old nest-site can be instigated because of destruction of the colony's old home, or because the colony has grown too big for its existing home due to reproduction. Often the collective decision on the site of the new home is made with very few members making direct comparisons between viable sites. Presentation by Dr Tim Schaerf from the University of Sydney at the Agent-Based Modelling Intensive Course Wednesday Colloquium, held at the University of Sydney Business School in July 2011.

2011-07-06T00:00:00Z Earnest, David https://hdl.handle.net/2123/7788 2026-05-05T12:33:01Z 2011-07-06T00:00:00Z

Using Agent-Based Models to Understand the Surprising Complexity of Global Markets Earnest, David Why is the economy “complex”? For all the recent advances in the management sciences, businesses today face markets full of unexpected events, from cascading failures of lending institutions to speculative investment and the explosive growth of tech firms. In this talk, I argue that the complexity sciences, particularly a simulation methodology known as agent-based modeling, will help key decision-makers anticipate the global dynamics of modern consumers, firms and markets. The talk demonstrates that many of the “surprises” we observe in today’s economy arise from our poor understanding of the relationship between what Nobel laureate Thomas Schelling called “micro motives and macro behavior”—that is, how individual decisions produce social structural outcomes. Our thinking tends to suffer from two fallacies: of composition (inferring structural properties from observing the behavior of individuals) and the ecological fallacy (inferring individual attributes from observing social aggregates). The talk illustrates how agent-based modeling helps us bridge the divide between individual agency and social structure. Using examples from economics and politics, I illustrate the four principal causes of complexity in today’s business climate: interaction effects, strategic complexity, ecological complexity, and reflexive complexity. Presentation by Associate Professor David Earnest from Old Dominion University (U.S.A.) at the Agent-Based Modelling Intensive Course Wednesday Colloquium, held at The University of Sydney Business School in July 2011. This presentation gives an introduction to complexity, the types of complexity, and how agent-based modelling can be used to understand complex systems.

2011-07-06T00:00:00Z Young, Louise https://hdl.handle.net/2123/7770 2026-05-05T12:33:08Z 2011-07-06T00:00:00Z

BNAS: Towards a Business Nework ABM System Young, Louise Business relations and networks play a central role in the way business and economic systems are organised and function. But their dynamics and evolution have received little research attention, with research focusing more on comparative static and cross-section surveys. In order to develop appropriate research-based management and policy advice we need a better understanding of how business relations and networks form and evolve. One way to do this is through the development of of agent-based simulation models of business relations and networks that allow researchers to systematically explore the nature and impact of different factors on structure, behaviour and performance that are beyond traditional closed-form mathematical solution and which would be impossible in the field. Presentation by Professor Louise Young of the University of Western Sydney at the Agent-Based Modelling Intensive Course Wednesday Colloquium, held at the University of Sydney Business School in July 2011. Contributors to research also include Fabian Held, Professor Ian Wilkinson, Professor Robert Marks and Professor Terry Bossomaier. In this presentation, Louise Young provides an introduction to business systems and networks, and provides explanation for why agent-based modelling and simulation will greatly assist the research into these systems. Areas covered include the dynamics and evolution of business networks, existing models of the development of business systems and networks, viewing business relations and networks as complex adaptive systems, and an introduction to BNAS: the Business Network ABM System.

2011-07-06T00:00:00Z Debenham, John https://hdl.handle.net/2123/7733 2026-05-05T12:33:03Z 2011-07-06T00:00:00Z

"It's All About Me" - Anthropomorphised - Part 1 Debenham, John Present electronic markets, which focus on the backend transaction processing system and catalogue-style interaction, do not provide the perception that there are people behind them. This research approaches believability from an indivisual stance – “It’s all about me”. Every player and the environment should adjust towards that person. We develop the concept of an immersive normative multiagent system that delivers electronic market technology that supports believability. Presentation by Professor John Debenham from the University of Technology, Sydney at the Agent-Based Modelling Intensive Course Wednesday Colloquium, held at The University of Sydney Business School in July 2011. Professor John Debenham takes us through his research collaboration with Professor Simeon Simoff on making models more reflective of real-world environments by making models more respectable and believable. This first part of the "It's All About Me" presentation looks at the theory side of the research, focusing on agent relationships and systems, whether Game Theory is relevant to making relationships believable, and the concepts of trust & respect in agent-based models.

2011-07-06T00:00:00Z Marks, Robert https://hdl.handle.net/2123/7732 2026-05-05T12:33:06Z 2011-07-06T00:00:00Z

Choosing the Right Model Marks, Robert Building Agent-Based Models requires assumptions (as does building any model).The advantage of ABM is the assumptions can be realistic, rather than made in order to solve a calculus-based problem. But what does "realistic" mean? I shall outline the issues of verification of a model (is it working as the modeller wants?) and validation of a model (how close is the model behaviour to some measures of reality?), after talking about the general issue of choosing models. Presentation by Professor Robert Marks from the University of Melbourne and the Australian Graduate School of Management (UNSW) at the Agent-Based Modelling Intensive Course Wednesday Colloquium, held at The University of Sydney Business School in July 2011. This presentation discusses the assumptions that are a part of agent-based models and what this means for model validation, with examples from his own work.

2011-07-06T00:00:00Z