https://hdl.handle.net/2123/24312 2026-06-04T18:13:17Z 2026-06-04T18:13:17Z Beck, Matthew J. Hensher, David A. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/27097 2021-11-30T05:23:44Z 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z

Working from Home in Australia in 2020: Positives, Negatives and the Potential for Future Benefits to Transport and Society Beck, Matthew J.; Hensher, David A. The year 2020 has been marked by the most extraordinary event we have witnessed since World War II. While other health threats and geographical disasters have occurred, none have been on the global scale of COVID-19. Although many countries have experienced more than one wave of the pandemic throughout 2020, Australia has been largely able to contain the impact of the virus. While there are many reasons for this, a key component of reducing transmission has been restrictions on movement, and the widespread adoption of working from home (WFH) by those who can. In describing the experience Australian’s have had with working from home across 2020, via three waves of data collection, we find that WFH become a positive unintended consequence in contributing to the future management of the transport network, especially in larger metropolitan areas. Evidence suggests that support for WFH will be continuing in the form of a hybrid work model with more flexible working times and locations, linked to largely positive experiences of WFH during 2020, an improved wellbeing of employees, and no loss of productivity to the economy. We highlight potential future benefits of WFH to society, including significant implications for congestion and crowding, concluding that WFH is a formidable transport policy lever that must become embedded in the psyche of transport planners and decision makers so that we can gain some benefit from the pandemic.

2021-01-01T00:00:00Z Stanley, John K. Hensher, David A. Stanley, Janet R. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/27096 2021-11-30T05:19:29Z 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z

Place-based disadvantage, social exclusion and the value of mobility Stanley, John K.; Hensher, David A.; Stanley, Janet R. Connections between mobility and social exclusion have been of research and policy interest for some years, a high value being estimated for additional trips by those at risk of mobility-related exclusion. Those values have been based on individual-level characteristics. To date, the influence of place, or neighbourhood, on risk of social exclusion and on the associated value of trip making by at-risk people has not been considered. This paper adds a measure of neighbourhood to individual factors to explore risk of social exclusion and then shows how the value of additional trips varies by level of social exclusion risk.

2021-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Wei, Edward Balbontin, Camila https://hdl.handle.net/2123/26920 2025-10-14T04:28:29Z 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z

Comparative Assessment of Zero Emission Electric and Hydrogen Buses in Australia Hensher, David A.; Wei, Edward; Balbontin, Camila The pace of electrification for public transit bus fleets is accelerating internationally. Clear targets have been established by transport policymakers to achieve a zero-emission bus target as early as 2030 in some jurisdictions. Two prominent choices are battery-driven electric buses and fuel-cell electric buses. We draw on evidence on these current and future development to provide an assessment of the two types of technology on emission reduction, capital, maintenance and energy costs, and other aspects. We apply a decision support system to compare a number of scenarios for different electrification plans of bus fleets using Australian data. Comparing scenarios such as slow versus fast take up and different mixture of energy technology in future zero emission fleets provides evidence on the reductions in carbon dioxide emissions and costs in converting a diesel bus fleet to a fully green, at tailpipe, fleet.

2021-01-01T00:00:00Z Li, Zheng Zhou, Bo Hensher, David A. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/26641 2021-10-25T22:41:03Z 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z

Forecasting Automobile Gasoline Demand in Australia Using Machine Learning-based Regression Li, Zheng; Zhou, Bo; Hensher, David A. We use a variant of machine learning (ML) to forecast Australia’s automobile gasoline demand within an autoregressive and structural model. By comparing the outputs of the various model specifications, we find that training set selection plays an important role in forecasting accuracy. More specifically, however, the performance of training sets starting within identified systematic patterns is relatively worse, and the impact on forecast errors is substantial. Instead of treating these patterns as noise, we explain these systematic variations in machine learning performance, and explore the intuition behind the ‘black-box’ with the support of economic theory. An important finding is that these time points coincide with structural changes in Australia’s economy. By examining the out-of-sample forecasts, the model’s external validity can be demonstrated under normal situations; however, its forecasting performance is somewhat unsatisfactory under event-driven uncertainty, which calls on future research to develop alternative models to depict the characteristics of rare and extreme events in an ex-ante manner.

2021-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Beck, Matthew J. Balbontin, Camila https://hdl.handle.net/2123/26640 2021-10-28T23:03:48Z 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z

What does the Quantum of Working from Home do to the Value of Commuting Time used in Transport Appraisal? Hensher, David A.; Beck, Matthew J.; Balbontin, Camila The need to recognise and account for the influence of working from home on commuting activity has never been so real as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Given a recognition that WFH activity during the pandemic has reduced the amount of commuting activity compared to pre-COVID-19, the inevitable question is raised as to what this might mean for some of the crucial inputs in the appraisal of transport initiatives. One critical value used in benefit-cost analysis is the value of time which converts time into monetary units in the calculation of user benefits. We are interested in whether reduced commuting activity is associated with higher or lower willing to pay to save time. We investigate this possibility with data from the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area in late 2020 when working from home was at a high level. The findings of a higher average commuter VoT have major implications for the VoT used in transport appraisal given that time savings are the largest user benefit. We suggest a percentage adjustment required to align with the ‘new normal’ as currently known.

2021-01-01T00:00:00Z Day, Christopher James https://hdl.handle.net/2123/26348.2 2021-10-12T03:38:33Z 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z

Riding the Storm: Humanising Our Response to Induced Global Warming Day, Christopher James Climate change is a complex challenge. Addressing it successfully requires a mindset that draws directly from the heart of what makes us human. Our moral responsibilities to each other, future generations and the planet must be balanced with the need for shared present prosperity. This can be achieved through an enhanced economic framework that acknowledges the key role of rapid technological advancement. Our vision for the future must reflect the possibilities that lie ahead in a model where addressing climate change through the creation of a competitive and innovation driven industrial base isn’t just the right course of action but the profitable one. This makes emissions reduction politically achievable by eliminating the mistaken belief that there is a trade-off between environmental sustainability and economic prosperity.

2021-01-01T00:00:00Z Day, Christopher James Merkert, Rico https://hdl.handle.net/2123/25899 2025-10-14T04:28:29Z 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z

Unlocking Public Procurement as a Tool for Place-Based Industrial Strategy Day, Christopher James; Merkert, Rico The Global Financial Crisis and, more recently, the COVID-19 pandemic have highlighted the perils of industrial atrophy and spatial inequality rampant within advanced economies. Despite growing interest in lifting economic performance on the part of scholars and practitioners, the nature of entrenched economic frameworks limits the extent of effective intervention. By taking an interdisciplinary approach and reviewing extant literature examining the underestimated value of advanced manufacturing, this paper identifies a context in which government can use its procurement power in a non-discriminatory manner. The nature of agglomeration economies, employment substitution and diseconomies of scale suggests that the overlooked financial benefits of place-based industrial strategy around advanced manufacturing clusters are greatest in lagging regions.

2021-01-01T00:00:00Z Stanley, John K. Hensher, David A. Wei, Edward Liu, Wen https://hdl.handle.net/2123/25898 2025-10-14T04:28:29Z 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z

Major urban transport expenditure initiatives: where are the returns likely to be strongest and how significant is social exclusion in making the case? Stanley, John K.; Hensher, David A.; Wei, Edward; Liu, Wen This paper explores whether the benefits from major urban transport spending increases are likely to differ greatly, depending on whether that spending prioritises light rail, a mode with growing interest and several new services recently developed in Australia, major road network improvement or provision of additional bus services. It does this through a series of case studies based on Sydney, using MetroScan, an integrated transport and land use strategic model system. MetroScan is the most sophisticated strategic integrated land use, transport and economic system evaluation model in Australia, with the capability of exploring dynamic interactions between transport improvements, residential locations and job locations, among other things. We specifically focus on the impacts of major transport initiatives on reducing risks that people will be socially excluded because of poor mobility opportunities.

2021-01-01T00:00:00Z Balbontin, Camila Hensher, David A. Beck, Matthew J. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/25836 2021-09-04T06:03:16Z 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z

Relationship between commuting and non-commuting travel activity under the growing incidence of working from home and people’s attitudes towards COVID-19 Balbontin, Camila; Hensher, David A.; Beck, Matthew J. The COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped the way we live and travel, possibly for many years to come. The ‘New Normal’ seems to be one that is best associated with living with COVID-19 rather that ‘after COVID-19’. After a year or more since the pandemic spread throughout the world, we have amassed a significant amount of evidence on what this is likely to mean for patterns of commuting activity in a setting where working for home (WFH) is becoming a more popular and legitimate alternative to choosing a commuting mode. With WFH continuing to some extent, non-commuting travel is also likely to change as workers and their families have greater flexibility in when and to what extent they conduct their shopping, social-recreation and other non-commuting trip activity. This paper recognises that all trip purpose activity is being impacted by the pandemic and that the drivers of changing number of trips by each and every trip purpose need to be identified as a way of establishing likely future levels of frequency of all trip making. In this paper we develop a series of trip making models for workers and non-workers in New South Wales and Queensland in a metropolitan and a regional setting, using data collected in late 2020. The influence of the number of days WFH is identified as an important influence on the number of one-way weekly trips for various trip purposes, which together with socioeconomic, geographic and attitudinal variables enable us to gain an understanding of what is driving levels of trip-purpose-specific travel during the pandemic. Elasticities and simulated changes are presented as a behaviourally rich way to understand the sensitivity of influences on the frequency of travel.

2021-01-01T00:00:00Z Ho, Chinh Q. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/25835 2021-08-04T21:23:41Z 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z

Can MaaS change users’ travel behaviour to deliver commercial and societal outcomes? Ho, Chinh Q. Mobility as a Service, or MaaS, is a relatively new business model that aims to disrupt the passenger transport industry by integrating existing mobility services into an intuitive smartphone app that allows everyday travellers to search, book, use, and pay for all their transport needs. In a fully integrated ecosystem, MaaS is envisaged to integrate not only travel information and payment, but also mobility services and societal goals to obtain the so-called four levels of MaaS integration. This paper describes the strategies used in the Sydney MaaS trial to obtain all four levels of integration and empirically assess the prospects of having a commercially viable and environmentally sustainable MaaS. Leveraging empirical data collected by GPS-tracking technology, ticketing management systems, and survey questionnaires over the five-month in-field trial of MaaS in Sydney, this paper develops a discrete-continuous modelling system to quantify, for the first time, the impacts of MaaS on users’ travel behaviour and extra volume/revenue for shared modes. Based on the quantitative evidence obtained, the paper suggests a new commercial model for MaaS and identifies the likely opportunities and challenges faced by MaaS integrators.

2021-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Ho, Chinh Q. Reck, Daniel J. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/25660 2025-10-14T04:28:28Z 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z

Mobility as a Service and private car use: evidence from the Sydney MaaS trial Hensher, David A.; Ho, Chinh Q.; Reck, Daniel J. Australia’s first Mobility as a Service (MaaS) trial commenced in April 2019 in Sydney, running for two years. The objective of the trial is at least twofold – to assess interest in various MaaS subscription plans through bundling public transport, rideshare, car share and car rental with varying financial discounts and monthly subscription fees, in contrast to pay as you go (PAYG); and to assess the extent to which the use of the private car might change following a subscription to a monthly mobility bundle. This paper assesses the second objective by investigating the potential for changes in monthly car use in the presence of a MaaS program. There is no previous research that we are aware of that has tested the relationship between MaaS bundle uptake and private car use. The paper develops a joint discrete-continuous model system to explain the choice between monthly bundles and PAYG, and subsequently, the total monthly car kilometres. Controlling for monthly differences due to other influences such as seasonal travel activity, the findings suggest that the offered bundles do have an encouraging impact on private car use. Within the limits of what was tested under the Sydney MaaS trial, indicative evidence suggests that MaaS has the potential to change travel behaviour in a way aligned with sustainability objectives, although this evidence should not be taken as suggesting that MaaS is a commercially viable mobility strategy.

2021-01-01T00:00:00Z Eskandarzadeh, Saman Fahimnia, Behnam https://hdl.handle.net/2123/25484 2021-06-23T05:16:34Z 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z

A Framework to Model and Compare Rest Break Policies in Logistics Industry Eskandarzadeh, Saman; Fahimnia, Behnam Carriers and postal companies are under increasing pressure to reduce their operating costs and increase efficiency. One way to reduce costs is to improve the utilisation of drivers’ working hours by employing more efficient rest break policies. A rest break policy is a set of rules consistent with (but more restrictive than) national regulations for Hours of Service (HOS). We develop and test a novel framework to model a class of these policies that concern the location of the rest breaks. In particular, we compare two representative rest break policies using data from a major Australian postal carrier. The first policy imposes no restriction on the location of a rest break. The second policy requires the driver to return to a depot for rest taking allowing time for socialising with others and making use of full amenities at the depot. Our numerical experiments focus on investigating the impact of each policy on postal delivery services in Sydney Metropolitan Area. Our analysis arrives at some interesting managerial insights and identifies important directions for future research in this area.

2021-01-01T00:00:00Z Hong, Wei-Ting Clifton, Geoffrey Nelson, John D https://hdl.handle.net/2123/25387 2021-06-07T03:55:31Z 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z

A review of rail transport system vulnerability analysis: past progress and future directions Hong, Wei-Ting; Clifton, Geoffrey; Nelson, John D Analysis of the vulnerability of rail transport systems has received considerable attention in the literature over several decades. Since economic development is usually associated with increasing demand for railway transport as more and more passengers rely on railways, the consequence of disruptions to the railway system becomes unaffordable and creates significant impact on society and economies. Hence, there is a growing need for accurate estimations of the vulnerability of railway transport and for effective mitigation strategies. This paper aims to synthesize recent studies in vulnerability analysis of rail transport systems in terms of the definitions, theoretical basis, and methodology they apply through a systematic review of the literature. Several theories are introduced, and widely used approaches are categorized and demonstrated as well. The result shows that approximately one-third of studies chose to apply topological approaches, and a growing number of studies have begun to use complex networks theory. However, the findings also show that the link between research in the context of vulnerability analysis and risk analysis is weak, and practice-oriented studies are limited; this is identified as an area for future work. Overall, this review paper provides a comprehensive insight into the state-of-the-art in vulnerability analysis of rail transport systems, drawing on both research and practice and offers a guide for future studies.

2021-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Wei, Edward Liu, Wen https://hdl.handle.net/2123/25093 2021-05-24T02:08:38Z 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z

Battery Electric Vehicles in Cities: Measurement of some impacts on traffic and government revenue recovery Hensher, David A.; Wei, Edward; Liu, Wen We are told that electric vehicles, cars in particular, will be good for the environment. But what exactly might this mean? It is true that end use emissions will be significantly reduced when we move from fossil fuels to green energy sources? Assuming that the demand for such cars, including battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in particular will grow, we can expect a significant number of such vehicles manufactured in future years. Given the potentially relatively lower cost (fewer moving parts) compared to the internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEs) as well as the significantly lower usage costs per kilometre, we would expect a level of uptake that could impact on the performance of the road network (perhaps increased congestion) but also a concomitant reduced use of public transport and fuel excise loss. In this paper we apply the MetroScan modelling system in the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area (GSMA) over the period 2021-2056 to identify the likely impact that the growth in BEV ownership and use will have on vehicle kilometres, modal shares, government revenues, levels of CO2 emissions and other impacts. Moreover, we investigate the introduction of a BEV usage charge proposed in Australia to see what it might do to these key performance indicators and whether it can offset the adverse effects during BEV uptake such as government fuel excise revenue loss and increased congestion.

2021-01-01T00:00:00Z Loyola, Miguel Nelson, John Clifton, Geoffrey Levinson, David M. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/25036 2025-03-19T05:00:50Z 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z

Narratives in Transport Research Loyola, Miguel; Nelson, John; Clifton, Geoffrey; Levinson, David M. Social science disciplines are increasingly using narratives as means to develop theory and tools for real world applications. The aim of this review of literature is to show, from an interdisciplinary perspective, how narratives are used in transport research between 1990 and 2020. We perform a systematic literature review using the Scopus and Web of Science databases. Sixty-four peer-reviewed articles met the identification and eligibility criteria and were included in the analysis. We grouped the articles according to focus, and function into three categories: Elicit narratives (extracting narratives from collected data); explicit narratives (narratives used to create scenarios); and proposed narratives (recommended narratives). Our results indicate that narratives are not used extensively in transport research, but their use is increasing. Narrative methods are most often used in analysing the social impact of transport, policy, and planning benefits. We posit that if narratives were more widely adopted and circulated in the transport community, we might see sustainable change, and suggest that the narratives themselves be rigorously tested in future research for their ability to affect outcomes.

2021-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Mulley, Corinne Nelson, John D. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/24890 2021-04-09T04:16:28Z 2021-04-09T00:00:00Z

Mobility as a Service (MaaS) – Going Somewhere or Nowhere? Hensher, David A.; Mulley, Corinne; Nelson, John D. Noting the continuing lack of agreement as to how the concept of Mobility as a Service (MaaS) should be defined, this short paper offers an evaluation of the extent to which MaaS faces a very uncertain future. While MaaS remains a compelling concept, without evidence of MaaS contributing to sustainability goals the multimodal future may be one of contactless deep linked customer-oriented Apps with no provision for bundling mobility services. A MaaS Champion with a proactive approach, led by government, seems essential for any future positive outcomes.

2021-04-09T00:00:00Z Beck, Matthew.J Hensher, David A. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/24765 2025-10-14T04:38:15Z 2021-03-30T00:00:00Z

Insights into Working from Home in Australia in 2020: Positives, Negatives and the Potential for Future Benefits to Transport and Society Beck, Matthew.J; Hensher, David A. The year 2020 has been marked by the most extraordinary event we have witnessed since World War II. While other health threats and geographical disaster have occurred, none have been on the global scale of COVID-19. While many countries have experienced more than one wave of the pandemic throughout 2020, Australia has been able to contain the virus with numbers less than ten at any one time in a way that makes it a stand out (with New Zealand) in the way that it has been contained, with an exception in Victoria from July to early November, linked to failed quarantine procedures for travellers returning from overseas. This paper builds on earlier papers by the authors on the Australian response, with a focus on the role that working from home (WFH) has played in response to reducing the risk of seeding the virus in local sources. Given the volatility of exposure and transmission, WFH to some extent has growing support from employees, employers and government as a way of not only containing the virus but as a positive unintended consequence in contributing to the future management of the transport network, especially in larger metropolitan areas. We report on the findings from the first three waves of data collected in Australia between March and September 2020, highlighting the potential future benefits of WFH to society more generally what this might mean for the future revision of transport plans and priorities.

2021-03-30T00:00:00Z Yen, Barbara T.H. Mulley, Corinne Shearer, Heather https://hdl.handle.net/2123/24735 2021-03-25T04:18:36Z 2021-03-25T00:00:00Z

The Value of Green Infrastructure: Evidence from the Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia Yen, Barbara T.H.; Mulley, Corinne; Shearer, Heather Green infrastructure is important to underpin residential choice, provide sustainable transport and contribute to a liveable neighbourhood. This study investigates the value of green infrastructure to property owners where green infrastructure is defined as including built environment features (e.g., green spaces, beach), facilities (e.g., fitness equipment in parks) and infrastructure (e.g., heavy rail, light rail). Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia is the case study. To capture geographical differences across the city, a multi-level regression modelling approach is used to measure the implicit value of green infrastructure in the property price. The results suggest only those elements of green infrastructure that can provide a service (e.g., fitness equipment) are positively valued. Importantly from a sustainable transport perspective, the current public transport network and services make a negative contribution to property price suggesting these might not meet with residents’ expectation. The conclusions of the paper discuss the implications of this for literature and policy in respect of green infrastructure.

2021-03-25T00:00:00Z Hensher, David https://hdl.handle.net/2123/24680 2021-10-31T21:32:32Z 2021-03-18T00:00:00Z

The case for negotiated contracts under the transition to a green bus fleet Hensher, David Bus operators in the public and private sector are increasingly subject to competitive tendering in many countries and a requirement to operate under a gross cost contract. This contract sets out in detail the requirements of the operator, including the levels of service as well as infrastructure required to deliver the contracted services. Buses acquired by operators in many jurisdictions have until very recently been essentially diesel fuelled and often available from a panel approved set of buses compliant with Euro 6 standards. The predictability of the cost profiles of vehicles and associated costs of maintenance and repairs is well known and used in tendered offers. With the growing requirement of switching to a green fleet with varying timetabled transition rates, the future costs of providing bus services are going to be subject to significant unknowns. These unknowns are associated not only with the fast changing vehicle technology associated with a range of fuel sources (notably standard battery and fuel cell battery (i.e., hydrogen)), but also the impact this will have of the top-to-bottom change in the operations of bus fleets affecting operating and capital expenditure including depot infrastructure, timetabling, maintenance, labour skills and access to efficient electricity charging or hydrogen facilities. With such great uncertainty, the challenge of how to structure future contracts to allow for such volatility in cost commitments becomes of paramount importance to both the regulator and the bus operator. In this paper, we promote way forward to ensure that the transition to a totally green fleet is achieved without throwing the industry into chaotic uncertainty.

2021-03-18T00:00:00Z Reck, Daniel J. Axhausen, Kay W. Hensher, David A. Ho, Chinh Q. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/24604 2021-03-04T23:25:17Z 2021-03-04T00:00:00Z

Multimodal Transportation Plans: Empirical Evidence on Uptake, Usage and Behavioural Implications from the Augsburg MaaS Trial Reck, Daniel J.; Axhausen, Kay W.; Hensher, David A.; Ho, Chinh Q. The integration of shared mobility modes with public transportation to provide ‘mobility as a service’ (MaaS) in a sustainable way has received substantial attention from transportation scholars, practitioners and policymakers. In fully integrated systems, customers are offered a choice between ‘pay-as-you-go’ and monthly subscription plans. While there has been considerable research into the configuration, willingness to pay and resulting market potential of such plans using stated preference methods, only few trials have been conducted to validate previous results and evaluate their potential to foster sustainable travel behavior. To this end, we report on the first MaaS trial in Germany. Between November 2018 and June 2020, 341 customers bought bundles including monthly public transportation, carsharing and bikesharing allowances. While uptake has been substantial, first indications of market saturation suggest that the (currently offered) MaaS bundles including these modes might be more of a niche product than a ‘game changer’ in urban mobility. Analyzing longitudinal panel data on bundle uptake and carsharing usage, we find that a substantial number of customers underutilize their carsharing allowances. Still, consumer gain is substantially higher than producer gain due to bundle discounts, dampening providers’ hopes of a new business model. We further find that carsharing allowances in bundles increase carsharing usage of subscribers.

2021-03-04T00:00:00Z Haghani, Milad Bliemer, Michiel C. J. Rose, John M. Oppewal, Harmen Lancsar, Emily https://hdl.handle.net/2123/24575 2025-10-14T04:28:29Z 2021-02-26T00:00:00Z

Hypothetical bias in stated choice experiments: Part II. Macro-scale analysis of literature and effectiveness of bias mitigation methods Haghani, Milad; Bliemer, Michiel C. J.; Rose, John M.; Oppewal, Harmen; Lancsar, Emily This paper reviews methods of hypothetical bias (HB) mitigation in choice experiments (CEs). It presents a bibliometric analysis and summary of empirical evidence of their effectiveness. The paper follows the review of empirical evidence on the existence of HB presented in Part I of this study. While the number of CE studies has rapidly increased since 2010, the critical issue of HB has been studied in only a small fraction of CE studies. The present review includes both ex-ante and ex-post bias mitigation methods. Ex-ante bias mitigation methods include cheap talk, real talk, consequentiality scripts, solemn oath scripts, opt-out reminders, budget reminders, honesty priming, induced truth telling, indirect questioning, time to think and pivot designs. Ex-post methods include follow-up certainty calibration scales, respondent perceived consequentiality scales, and revealed-preference-assisted estimation. It is observed that the use of mitigation methods markedly varies across different sectors of applied economics. The existing empirical evidence points to their overall effectives in reducing HB, although there is some variation. The paper further discusses how each mitigation method can counter a certain subset of HB sources. Considering the prevalence of HB in CEs and the effectiveness of bias mitigation methods, it is recommended that implementation of at least one bias mitigation method (or a suitable combination where possible) becomes standard practice in conducting CEs. Mitigation method(s) suited to the particular application should be implemented to ensure that inferences and subsequent policy decisions are as much as possible free of HB.

2021-02-26T00:00:00Z Haghani, Milad Bliemer, Michiel C. J. Rose, John M. Oppewal, Harmen Lancsar, Emily https://hdl.handle.net/2123/24522 2021-02-17T00:16:47Z 2021-02-15T00:00:00Z

Hypothetical bias in stated choice experiments: Part I. Integrative synthesis of empirical evidence and conceptualisation of external validity Haghani, Milad; Bliemer, Michiel C. J.; Rose, John M.; Oppewal, Harmen; Lancsar, Emily The notion of hypothetical bias (HB) constitutes, arguably, the most fundamental issue in relation to the use of hypothetical survey methods. Whether or to what extent choices of survey participants and subsequent inferred estimates translate to real-world settings continues to be debated. While HB has been extensively studied in the broader context of contingent valuation, it is much less understood in relation to choice experiments (CE). This paper reviews the empirical evidence for HB in CE in various fields of applied economics and presents an integrative framework for how HB relates to external validity. Results suggest mixed evidence on the prevalence, extent and direction of HB as well as considerable context and measurement dependency. While HB is found to be an undeniable issue when conducting CEs, the empirical evidence on HB does not render CEs unable to represent real-world preferences. While health-related choice experiments often find negligible degrees of HB, experiments in consumer behaviour and transport domains suggest that significant degrees of HB are ubiquitous. Assessments of bias in environmental valuation studies provide mixed evidence. Also, across these disciplines many studies display HB in their total willingness to pay estimates and opt-in rates but not in their hypothetical marginal rates of substitution (subject to scale correction). Further, recent findings in psychology and brain imaging studies suggest neurocognitive mechanisms underlying HB that may explain some of the discrepancies and unexpected findings in the mainstream CE literature. The review also observes how the variety of operational definitions of HB prohibits consistent measurement of HB in CE. The paper further identifies major sources and catalogues explanations of HB as well as possible moderating factors. Finally, it explains how HB represents one component of the wider concept of external validity.

2021-02-15T00:00:00Z Day, Christopher James https://hdl.handle.net/2123/24396 2021-02-01T23:06:57Z 2021-02-02T00:00:00Z

Why industrial location matters again in a low-carbon economy Day, Christopher James Reductions in freight transportation costs have favoured agglomeration and radically decreased the requirement for production activities to take place adjacent to natural resources. As the world transitions towards energy generated from renewable sources, this is likely to change. The cost of transporting renewable energy is relatively high and creates a significant competitive advantage for regions with surplus clean energy resources. This paper argues that future models of industrial location must incorporate this dynamic.

2021-02-02T00:00:00Z Nelson, John D https://hdl.handle.net/2123/24313 2021-09-04T04:53:49Z 2021-01-15T00:00:00Z

“Messaging” and Public Transport in the COVID-19 environment Nelson, John D Getting the message right has been an important task for public transport operators as the sector seeks to recover from the drastic fall in patronage occasioned by the COVID-19 pandemic. Coming out of any lockdown or periods of restriction must be associated with public transport being still the mode that provides the greatest chance of a sustainable urban future. This paper looks at public transport trends in New South Wales during the first six months of 2020 (i.e. before and after the first wave of COVID-19), considers the “messaging” put in place and asks why On Demand Transport (ODT) seems to be bucking the trend when it comes to reversing the dramatic declines in public transport patronage that have been associated with COVID-19.

2021-01-15T00:00:00Z