https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15263 2026-06-13T10:50:39Z 2026-06-13T10:50:39Z Chin, Teck Kean Xian, Tingsen (Tim) Marks, Benjy Nelson, John D. Moylan, Emily https://hdl.handle.net/2123/29562 2024-08-16T01:19:29Z 2022-09-19T00:00:00Z

Data pipeline for GTFS transit arrival and departure information Chin, Teck Kean; Xian, Tingsen (Tim); Marks, Benjy; Nelson, John D.; Moylan, Emily Cities generate large volumes of data daily through digital services and smart city applications, these include Public Transport Authorities which generate big data as part of their daily operations, such as vehicle positions, counts of passengers and user travel patterns. The General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) is a data format that allows public transport data to be consumed by a wide variety of software applications. This paper presents a data pipeline developed to manipulate the GTFS feeds into a general and flexible dataset of realtime transit arrivals. There are three barriers to widespread access to the information addressed by creating a one-size-fits-all data pipeline for realtime operations from GTFS. First, the protocol buffer format is not human readable and requires processing before use in most transport applications. Secondly, the general specification does vary place-to-place and the conditionally required and optional fields are inconsistent between locations. Thirdly, the raw data may contain errors including missing stop sequence or a reverse direction bus being detected in the bus stop area. The pipeline is constructed of set of data cleaning and transformation steps to address these challenges. The paper briefly presents a potential use cases of the processed data to illustrate its relevance to researchers and practitioners.

2022-09-19T00:00:00Z Logan, K.G. Hastings, A. Nelson, J.D. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/29139 2026-05-05T12:33:07Z 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z

Low Carbon Transport for a Modern Working Environment Logan, K.G.; Hastings, A.; Nelson, J.D. Due to the impact of unexpected circumstances such as COVID-19, several adaptations have been made to the current working environment which makes it more conducive for less travel. For example, because of the pandemic more individuals are working from home and do not need to travel daily to and from a workplace. In addition, some workplace practices such as the ‘10-day fortnight’ have been introduced. Furthermore, due to virtual meetings and conferences there is less demand for international and domestic business flights. Although this potentially means less daily travel, this also has negative implications as individuals are more likely to choose a method of transport that's convenient and cost effective. This often means using a personal vehicle. Public transport has been negatively impacted because of the pandemic and will require a significant behavioural change to recover and consolidate its position as a viable alternative to the personal vehicles.

2022-01-01T00:00:00Z Balbontin, Camila Hensher, David A Beck, Matthew J https://hdl.handle.net/2123/29020 2026-05-05T12:33:06Z 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z

Advanced modelling of commuter choice model and work from home during COVID-19 restrictions in Australia Balbontin, Camila; Hensher, David A; Beck, Matthew J The decision to work from home (WFH) or to commute during COVID-19 is having a major structural impact on individuals' travel, work and lifestyle. There are many possible factors influencing this non-marginal change, some of which are captured by objective variables while others are best represented by a number of underlying latent traits captured by attitudes towards WFH and the use of specific modes of transport for the commute that have a bio-security risk such as public transport (PT). We develop and implement a hybrid choice model to investigate the sources of influence, accounting for the endogenous nature of latent soft variables for workers in metropolitan areas in New South Wales and Queensland. The data was collected between September-October 2020, during a period of no lockdown and relatively minor restrictions on workplaces and public gatherings. The results show that one of the most important attributes defining the WFH loving attitude is the workplace policy towards WFH, with workers that can decide where to work having a higher probability of WFH, followed by those that are being directed to, relative to other workplace policies. The bio-security concern with using shared modes such as public transport is a key driver of WFH and choosing to commute via the safer environment of the private car.

2022-01-01T00:00:00Z Nelson, John D. Caulfield, Brian https://hdl.handle.net/2123/29005 2026-05-05T12:33:02Z 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z

Implications of COVID-19 for future travel behaviour in the rural periphery Nelson, John D.; Caulfield, Brian BackgroundThe design, management and operation of transport systems is a complex activity and this has only been exacerbated since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Concern has been raised over the likelihood of the public transport sector surviving in some locations given the significant drops in patronage; this is especially so in rural environments where the existing provision was already limited. Furthermore, within the growing literature on the impact of COVID-19 on travel behaviour most of the focus is on urban areas with little documented experience of how rural travel behaviour has been impacted.PurposeThis paper investigates the impact of COVID-19 on the transport sector and travel behaviour in the rural periphery.MethodsDrawing on the work of the International Transport Forum (ITF) Working Group on Innovative Mobility for the Periphery, augmented by additional evidence and findings from the literature, this paper addresses three specific questions: Firstly, how COVID-19 has affected rural mobility. Secondly, how we can plan for sustainable rural transport solutions in the post-COVID world. Thirdly, the longer-term impacts of COVID-19 with implications for mobility.ResultsThere will be substantial impacts from COVID-19 on rural societies and while the short-term impacts have been negative, in the longer-term there may be opportunity for changed mobility behaviours (including in response to modified work and activity patterns). Evidence suggests that it would seem likely that there are opportunities to foster new rural mobility solutions to support sustainable mobility (including Mobility-as-a-Service) and counter the traditionally fragmented transport base; this will be important as we learn to live with COVID-19.ConclusionsWhile recognising the impact of changing funding priorities and the possible shift in economic activity as a result of the pandemic we conclude with suggestions for future rural transport policy.

2022-01-01T00:00:00Z Beck, Matthew J. Hensher, David A. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/28437 2026-05-05T12:33:00Z 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z

Working from home in Australia in 2020: Positives, negatives and the potential for future benefits to transport and society Beck, Matthew J.; Hensher, David A. The year 2020 has been marked by the most extraordinary event we have witnessed since World War II. While other health threats and geographical disasters have occurred, none have been on the global scale of COVID-19. Although many countries have experienced more than one wave of the pandemic throughout 2020, Australia has been largely able to contain the impact of the virus. While there are many reasons for this, a key component of reducing transmission has been restrictions on movement, and the widespread adoption of working from home (WFH) by those who can. In describing the experience Australian's have had with working from home across 2020, via three waves of data collection, we find that WFH become a positive unintended consequence in contributing to the future management of the transport network, especially in larger metropolitan areas. Evidence suggests that support for WFH will be continuing in the form of a hybrid work model with more flexible working times and locations, linked to largely positive experiences of WFH during 2020, an improved wellbeing of employees, and no loss of productivity to the economy. We highlight potential future benefits of WFH to society, including significant implications for congestion and crowding, concluding that WFH is a formidable transport policy lever that must become embedded in the psyche of transport planners and decision makers so that we can gain some benefit from the pandemic.

2022-01-01T00:00:00Z Logan, Kathryn G. Hastings, Astley Nelson, John D. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/28434 2026-04-22T04:53:11Z 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z

Transportation in a Net Zero World: Transitioning Towards Low Carbon Public Transport Logan, Kathryn G.; Hastings, Astley; Nelson, John D. This book discusses the importance of transitioning from conventionally fuelled, electric and hydrogen personal vehicles towards low carbon electric and hydrogen public transport. It presents international comparisons and case studies of countries who have successfully and unsuccessfully implemented policies to reduce their emissions from land-based transport. It discusses and provides policy recommendations to meet a net zero transport world by exploring potential issues, including infrastructure changes and electricity generation mix which may prevent targets being met successfully. The book also demonstrates how the COVID-19 pandemic has influenced individual transport choices and what will need to be done to ensure travel remains sustainable going forward. Aligned with an active area of academic and civil discourse on the topic of sustainable transportation systems, Transportation in a Net Zero World will be of interest to researchers, policy makers, and graduate students alike, in the fields of environmental science and transport studies.

2022-01-01T00:00:00Z Greaves, Stephen Beck, Matthew Cobbold, Alec Standen, Christopher Rissel, Chris Crane, Melanie https://hdl.handle.net/2123/28420 2026-05-05T12:33:06Z 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z

Working from Home, Active Travel, Health and Wellbeing: Consequences of a Pandemic Greaves, Stephen; Beck, Matthew; Cobbold, Alec; Standen, Christopher; Rissel, Chris; Crane, Melanie While many studies have explored the impact of COVID-19 and/or working from home (WfH) on the transport network and modal choice, relatively few have looked at the implications of WfH through the lens of physical activity and the role of active transport moving forward. Drawing from a survey of 1,165 Sydney (Australia) workers conducted in late 2020, when restrictions from the first COVID-19 wave were easing across Australia, we explore the impact of the pandemic on perceived changes in working from home (WfH), active travel, physical health, and wellbeing. We identify three distinct segments of the population with differing active travel, physical activity (PA) and quality of life (QoL) outcomes: (1) 'Active but Anxious' (22%) - younger, higher income, largest increase in WfH, sitting relatively more, largest relative decrease in active commuting, increased relative PA and largest proportion who are physically active; (2) 'Less Change, Less Worries' (38%) - older and male, least change in WfH, least relative change in active commuting, sitting relatively less, largely sufficient PA, highest QoL; (3) 'Stressed and Sedentary' (40%) - average age, lower income, largest loss of paid work, highest levels of sitting, lowest PA and QoL. Given WfH will likely be a more prevalent component of the travel activity matrix, we consider the implications of these heterogenous outcomes for individuals, employers and policy-makers charged with shaping active travel policy and planning in a post-pandemic world.

2022-01-01T00:00:00Z Merkert, Rico https://hdl.handle.net/2123/28422 2026-05-05T12:39:29Z 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z

Quo vadis air transport management research? Merkert, Rico The aim of this short paper/editorial is to evaluate key performance indicators of the JATM, discuss its development and to explore areas of future research for aviation management research more generally. The impact factor has jumped from 1.084 at the end of 2015 to a predicted 5.211 in 2021 and with the Citescore now sitting at 8.0, the JATM is in a strong position to grow its reputation and aviation research even further. Our bibliometric analysis has shown a focus on COVID-19, service quality and discrete choice analysis. Sustainability has been identified as a long-established theme of JATM that, in addition to emerging themes, such as advanced air mobility, aviation scholars will grow further.

2022-01-01T00:00:00Z Dementiev, Andrei Han, Hyen Jin https://hdl.handle.net/2123/27103 2022-01-19T00:12:48Z 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z

A theory of deregulation in public transport Dementiev, Andrei; Han, Hyen Jin This paper builds a theory of deregulation and roll-out of on-road competition in the public transport sector. Focusing on the dimensions of competition, ownership and authorisation, we identify five distinct regulatory regimes: public monopoly, regulated monopoly, unregulated monopoly, outsourcing and competition in the market. Our generalised theoretical framework allows for the direct comparison in the social welfare terms of the monopolies’ outcomes and the fragmented market structure with endogenous entry. We formulate a set of parameter restrictions that make competition in the market preferable to public monopoly and outsourcing. We also show the theoretical possibility of a ‘revised’ regulatory cycle forming a sequential transition between these identified regulatory regimes. Our theoretical predictions shed some light on the reasons for policy reversals and the bypassing of certain phases of the cycle, that can occur due technological advances, changes in fiscal constraints and institutional capacity improvements.

2020-01-01T00:00:00Z Sharmeen, Fariya Drost, Denise Meurs, Henk https://hdl.handle.net/2123/27102 2022-01-19T00:09:48Z 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z

A Business Model Perspective to Understand Intra-firm Transitions: From traditional to flexible public transport services Sharmeen, Fariya; Drost, Denise; Meurs, Henk Socio technological transition with respect to innovations is a broader concept and generally is theorized as such. It is, therefore, unclear how at the micro level the business firms within an industry is restructuring internally to accommodate the technological innovations. Insights of this process management is uniquely valuable to understand how local technological niches and larger socio-technological transformations are being accommodated in industrial reforms. A business model perspective could provide insights of these innovation process managements, in this context the mobility transition from fixed to flexible public transport (FPT) systems. Taking business models as the unit of analysis, in this paper we provide a framework to map the transition process. The framework is applied to a case study of a traditional public transport firm in the Netherlands. We map the evolution of the business models taking the local external developments into account. We define three phases for the business model mapping here – pre FPT, during FPT and the future of FPT. Findings suggest a complete shift in client orientation of public transport authorities with geared up efforts in digitalization and value creation during these three phases of FPT transition. Perhaps the most striking - yet not completely unexpected – outcome for transit companies is to gradually assume a role of facilitator as opposed to a provider of public transit, which potentially will have a thorough reform of the industry. This initial trace of internal transition, however incomplete, provides useful insights of the overall product and process management and the emerging business model configurations and contributes to the learning trajectory of FPT service organizations.

2020-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Beck, Matthew J. Balbontin, Camila https://hdl.handle.net/2123/26548 2026-05-05T12:39:29Z 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z

What does the quantum of working from home do to the value of commuting time used in transport appraisal? Hensher, David A.; Beck, Matthew J.; Balbontin, Camila The need to recognise and account for the influence of working from home on commuting activity has never been so real as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Given a recognition that WFH activity during the pandemic has reduced the amount of commuting activity compared to pre-COVID-19, the inevitable question is raised as to what this might mean for some of the crucial inputs in the appraisal of transport initiatives. One critical value used in benefit-cost analysis is the value of time which converts time into monetary units in the calculation of user benefits. We are interested in whether reduced commuting activity is associated with higher or lower willing to pay to save time. We investigate this possibility with data from the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area in late 2020 when working from home was at a high level. The findings of a higher average commuter VoT have major implications for the VoT used in transport appraisal given that time savings are the largest user benefit. We suggest a percentage adjustment required to align with the 'new normal' as currently known.

2021-01-01T00:00:00Z Dolins, S. Wong, Y.Z. Nelson, J.D. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/26514 2026-05-05T12:33:06Z 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z

The 'sharing trap': A case study of societal and stakeholder readiness for on-demand and autonomous public transport in New South Wales, Australia Dolins, S.; Wong, Y.Z.; Nelson, J.D. Focus groups on shared, autonomous vehicles (SAVs) in New South Wales expressed "sharing anxiety" - an intense concern about the prospect of sharing their mobility journey with strangers, without a driver or authority figure present. This presents a significant barrier to the acceptance of SAVs, particularly autonomous public and on-demand transport (ODT), which is a major focus for Transport for New South Wales (TfNSW). Given this potential barrier, we interviewed (N = 13) operators, academics, and regulators with TfNSW to assess their role and abilities in overcoming sharing anxiety. However, our findings revealed a relative lack of awareness from experts in the mobility industry about the existence of sharing anxiety in users, suggesting additional barriers to adoption. We make suggestions for policy considerations for stakeholders that could mitigate sharing anxiety: promoting dynamic ridepooling products in commercial services, using tax breaks as incentivization; requiring ODT services and operators in jurisdiction to use a standardized, unified interface for users ("single-app"); shared, on-demand transport services likely need longer incubation/pilot periods in order for the sharing behavior to become culturally established. We conclude with a reflection on how COVID-19 has impacted the development of shared mobility and suggest further exploration in policy implementation.

2021-01-01T00:00:00Z Balbontin, Camila Hensher, David A. Beck, Matthew J. Giesen, Ricardo Basnak, Paul Vallejo-Borda, Jose Agustin Venter, Christoffel https://hdl.handle.net/2123/26129 2026-05-05T12:33:00Z 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z

Impact of COVID-19 on the number of days working from home and commuting travel: A cross-cultural comparison between Australia, South America and South Africa Balbontin, Camila; Hensher, David A.; Beck, Matthew J.; Giesen, Ricardo; Basnak, Paul; Vallejo-Borda, Jose Agustin; Venter, Christoffel The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the way we go about our daily lives in ways that are unlikely to return to the pre-COVID-19 levels. A key feature of the COVID-19 era is likely to be a rethink of the way we work and the implications on commuting activity. Working from home (WFH) has been the 'new normal' during the period of lockdown, except for essential services that require commuting. In recognition of the new normal as represented by an increasing amount of WFH, this paper develops a model to identify the incidence of WFH and what impact this could have on the number of weekly commuting trips. Using data collected in eight countries (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and South Africa), we developed a Poisson regression model for the number of days individuals worked from home during the pandemic. Simulated scenarios quantify the impact of the different variables on the probability of WFH by country. The findings provide a reference point as we continue to undertake similar analysis at different points through time during the pandemic and after when restrictions are effectively removed.

2021-01-01T00:00:00Z Beck, Matthew J. Hensher, David A. Nelson, John D. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/26132 2026-05-05T12:33:01Z 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z

Public transport trends in Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic: An investigation of the influence of bio-security concerns on trip behaviour Beck, Matthew J.; Hensher, David A.; Nelson, John D. This paper draws on findings from an Australia-wide survey with data collected in three waves throughout 2020 to explore the impact of COVID-19 on public transport trends in metropolitan areas of Australia. Following consideration of the public transport sector response to the pandemic and the emerging literature context, we explore three principal questions: (i) How has weekly travel composition changed across the waves? (ii) How has level of concern with using public transport changed over the course of the pandemic given new bio-security concerns? and (iii) How has attitudes to risk been associated with the changes in PT use? A key finding is that concerns over bio-security issues around public transport are enduring, that concern about hygiene is significantly negatively related to public transport use and that those with higher concern about the hygiene of public transport also held higher concern about COVID-19 at work. Even as COVID-19 restrictions are eased, both concern about crowds and hygiene have a significant and negative correlation with public transport use. Concluding remarks are offered on what might need to happen for public transport patronage to start returning.

2021-01-01T00:00:00Z Mulley, Corinne Nelson, John D. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/25647 2026-05-05T12:33:05Z 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z

Public Transport Network Planning Mulley, Corinne; Nelson, John D. This article provides a framework for understanding the principles and good practice in public transport network planning with an emphasis on bus services. It begins by considering the objectives and purpose of network planning before examining the role of economics in underpinning network planning activities and the higher level objectives of public transport provision. The main body of the text focuses on the principles of network planning, including a discussion of timeframes and the necessity of understanding how network planning outcomes fit into the demand for travel by the end user. This is followed by discussion of the adjustments necessary to provide good network planning for areas of low demand in which flexible transport services play a role. The penultimate section examines issues and areas where more attention is needed in the future and acknowledges the emergence of Mobility as a Service (MaaS). The entry ends with a short commentary on the role of public transport in the future, in the post-COVID-19 world.

2021-01-01T00:00:00Z Beck, Matthew J. Hensher, David A. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/25642 2026-05-05T12:33:01Z 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z

Australia 6 months After COVID-19 Restrictions- Part 1: Changes to Travel Activity and Attitude to Measures Beck, Matthew J.; Hensher, David A. While many countries have experienced more than one wave of the pandemic throughout 2020, Australia has been able to contain the virus in a way that makes it a stand out (with New Zealand) in the way that it has been contained, with an exception in Victoria linked to failed quarantine procedures for travellers returning from overseas. Through descriptive analysis, this paper builds on earlier papers by the authors on the Australian response, with a focus on the changing dynamics of travel activity, concern with public transport, and attitudes surrounding activity given the perception of risk of COVID-19 and the level of public support for regulatory intervention and restrictions on movement. We find that Australia continues to suppress travel, particularly that for commuting, that comfort in completing day-to-day activities continues to rise (with the exception of Victoria where confidence feel significantly), and while support for intervention measures remains high, there has been an erosion in sentiment. As with previous work, we discuss what this might mean for future transport policy, and attempt to draw lessons from the Australian experience.

2021-01-01T00:00:00Z Beck, Matthew J. Hensher, David A. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/25640 2026-05-05T12:33:03Z 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z

Australia 6 months After COVID-19 Restrictions Part 2: The Impact of Working from Home Beck, Matthew J.; Hensher, David A. This paper (Part 2 in the paper series), building on earlier studies examining the Australian response, extends on findings related to travel activity, commuting, and attitudes towards COVID-19 measures (Part 1 in the paper series). In this paper we focus in detail on the impact of, and experiences with, working from home (WFH), perhaps the largest of the positive unintended consequence of the pandemic, with respect to transport, and a key lens through which the changing patterns in travel activity and attitudes discussed in Part 1 need to be understood. We conclude that through the widespread adoption of WFH as a result of nationwide public health orders, there is evidence emerging that WFH is now seen as an appealing instrument of change by employees and employers, there is growing support to continue to support WFH into the future. This represents a significant potential contribution to the future management of the transport network, especially in larger metropolitan areas. We also discuss policy implications of this result and what the international community may take from the Australian experience.

2021-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Rose, John M Collins, Andrew T https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15458 2026-05-05T12:33:01Z 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z

Understanding Buy in for Risky Prospects: Incorporating Degree of Belief into the ex ante Assessment of Support for Alternative Road Pricing Schemes Hensher, David A.; Rose, John M; Collins, Andrew T This paper investigates support for road pricing reform within a referendum voting choice model. Central to this is how to identify believable ex-ante support for specific road pricing schemes. Our approach is centred on a referendum voting choice model for alternative road pricing schemes, with information that accounts for the degree of belief of the extent to which such schemes will make voters better or worse off. We find accounting for belief in the benefits results in sizeable reductions in the sensitivity to the levels of the charge, but quite small impacts on the sensitivity to revenue allocation.

2013-01-01T00:00:00Z Leong, Waiyan Hensher, David A. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15459 2026-05-05T12:33:02Z 2015-01-01T00:00:00Z

Contrasts of Relative Advantage Maximisation with Random Utility Maximisation and Regret Minimisation Leong, Waiyan; Hensher, David A. This paper discusses the theoretical properties and the empirical application of an improved version of the ‘relative advantage maximising’ (RAM) model. This model shares several desirable features of a set of models based on random regret minimisation (RRM), such as parsimony and choice set dependence. Although model fit differences are small, a preliminary comparison shows that the RAM model empirically outperforms the standard random utility maximisation (RUM) model, the RRM model, and a hybrid RUM–RRM model in all eight data sets analysed. The paper concludes with a discussion of the marginal willingness to pay (WTP) measures derived from the RAM model.

2015-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Collins, Andrew T. Rose, John M https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15332 2026-05-05T12:39:30Z 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z

Understanding Buy in for Risky Prospects: Incorporating Degree of Belief into the ex ante Assessment of Support for Alternative Road Pricing Schemes Hensher, David A.; Collins, Andrew T.; Rose, John M This paper investigates support for road pricing reform within the framework of a referendum voting choice model. Central to this task is how to identify ex ante support for specific road pricing schemes, such that the evidence is believable. Our approach is centred on a referendum voting choice model for alternative road pricing schemes in which we incorporate information that accounts for the degree of belief of the extent to which such schemes will make voters better or worse off. We find that accounting for belief in the benefits results in sizeable reductions in the sensitivity to the levels of the charge but quite small impacts on the sensitivity to revenue allocation.

2012-01-01T00:00:00Z Li, Zheng Hensher, David A. Rose, John M https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15322 2026-05-05T12:39:29Z 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z

Accommodating Perceptual Conditioning in the Valuation of Expected Travel Time Savings for Cars and Public Transport Li, Zheng; Hensher, David A.; Rose, John M Travel time variability (i.e., random variations in travel time) leads to a travel time distribution for a repeated trip from a fixed origin to destination (e.g., from home to work). To represent travel time variability, a series of possible travel times per alternative (departure time, route or mode) are often used in stated choice experiments. In the traditional models, the probabilities associated with different travel scenarios (e.g., arriving early, on time and late) shown in the experiments are directly used as weights. However, evidence from psychology suggests that the shown probabilities may be transformed (underweighted or overweighted) by respondents. To account for this transformation of probabilities, this study incorporates perceptual conditioning through a non-linear probability weighting function into a utility maximisation framework, within which the empirical estimate of the value of expected travel time savings is estimated. The key advantage of this framework is that the estimated willingness to pay value can be directly linked to the source of utility (i.e., the probability distribution of travel time), while taking into account the perceptual transformation of probabilities.

2013-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Greene, WIlliam H Ho, Chinh Q https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15325 2026-05-05T12:33:04Z 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Random Regret Minimization and Random Utility Maximization in the Presence of Preference Heterogeneity: An Empirical Contrast Hensher, David A.; Greene, WIlliam H; Ho, Chinh Q Random regret minimisation (RRM) interpretations of discrete choices are growing in popularity as a complementary modelling paradigm to random utility maximisation (RUM). While behaviourally very appealing in the sense of accommodating the regret of not choosing the ‘best’ alternative, studies to date suggest that the differences in willingness to pay estimates, choice elasticities and choice probabilities compared to RUM are small. However, the evidence is largely based on a simple multinomial logit form of the RRM model. In this paper we revisit this behavioural contrast and move beyond the multinomial logit model to incorporate random parameters, revealing the presence of preference heterogeneity. The important contribution of this paper is to see if the extension of RRM‐MNL to RRM‐mixed logit in passenger mode choice widens the behavioural differences between RUM and RRM. The current paper has identified a statistically richer improvement in fit of mixed logit compared to multinomial logit under RRM (and RUM) but found small differences overall between the empirical outputs of RUM and RRM, with no basis of an improved model fit between these two non‐nested model forms. The inclusion of both model forms should continue to inform the likely range of behavioural outputs as we investigate a broader range of process heuristics designed to capture real world behavioural response.

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z Ho, Chinh Q Hensher, David A. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15313 2026-05-05T12:33:02Z 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

A workplace choice model accounting for spatial competition and agglomeration effects Ho, Chinh Q; Hensher, David A. This paper develops a new model of workplace choice for the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area (SGMA) and describes the way in which this model is integrated into a general modelling framework of MetroScan, an improved version of the Transportation and Environment Strategy Impact Simulator Transportation (TRESIS). The developed model accounts for spatial competition of alternative workplaces via accessibility variables measured to attractions of both the same and different types. The new model also has two new refinements. First, a much finer geographical level is used for modelling worker's choice of workplace given the location of firms and the distribution of jobs. Second, an employment agglomeration effect is incorporated by the inclusion of jobs in the industry class relevant to the worker and two accessibility measures. Modelling analysis on data collected from a survey conducted in Sydney in 2013 identifies highly significant spatial competition and employment agglomeration effects explaining workplace choice. The application of this model to analyse policy relating to the redistribution or growth of jobs within a general framework of MetroScan is discussed.

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z Rose, John M Hensher, David A. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15315 2026-05-05T12:33:05Z 2014-01-01T00:00:00Z

Tollroads are only part of the overall trip: the error of our ways in past willingness to pay studies Rose, John M; Hensher, David A. With rare exception, actual tollroad traffic in many countries has failed to reproduce forecast traffic levels, regardless of whether the assessment is made after an initial year of operation or as long as 10 years after opening. Pundits have offered many reasons for this divergence, including optimism bias, strategic misrepresentation, the promise to equity investors of early returns on investment, errors in land use forecasts, and specific assumptions underlying the traffic assignment models used to develop traffic forecasts. One such assumption is the selection of a behaviourally meaningful value of travel time savings (VTTS) for use in a generalised cost or generalised time user benefit expression that is the main behavioural feature of the traffic assignment (route choice) model. Numerous empirical studies using stated choice experiments have designed choice sets of alternatives as if users choose a tolled route or a free route under the (implied) assumption that the tolled route is tolled for the entire trip. Reality is often very different, with a high incidence of use of a non-tolled road leading into and connecting out of a tolled link. In this paper we recognise this feature of route choice and redesign the stated choice experiment to account for it. Furthermore, this study is a follow up to a previous study undertaken before a new toll road was in place, and it benefits from real exposure to the new toll road. We find that the VTTS is noticeably reduced, and if the VTTS is a significant contributing influence on errors on traffic forecasts, then the lower estimates make sense behaviourally.

2014-01-01T00:00:00Z Ho, Chinh Q Mulley, Corinne Shiftan, Yoram Hensher, David A. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15314 2026-05-05T12:33:04Z 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Vehicle value of travel time savings: Evidence from a group based modelling approach Ho, Chinh Q; Mulley, Corinne; Shiftan, Yoram; Hensher, David A. The value of travel time savings (VTTS) accounts for a majority of the total user benefits in economic appraisal of transport investments. This means that having an accurate estimate of VTTS for different segments of travel continues to retain currency, despite there being a rich literature on estimates of VTTS for different travel modes, travel purposes, income groups, life cycles, and distance bands. In contrast, there is a dearth of research and evidence on vehicle VTTS, although joint travel by car is an important segment of travel. This paper fills this gap by developing a group-based modelling approach to quantify the vehicle VTTS and compares this with the VTTS for a driver with and without a passenger. An online survey was conducted in Sydney in 2014 and the data used to obtain a number of new empirical estimates of vehicle and driver VTTS. The new evidence questions the validity of various assumptions adopted in current practice for valuing the time savings of car passengers and multiple occupant cars.

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z Truong, Truong P. Hensher, David A. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15311 2026-05-27T05:50:28Z 2014-01-01T00:00:00Z

Linking Discrete Choice to Continuous Demand in a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Model Truong, Truong P.; Hensher, David A. Discrete choice (DC) models are often used to describe consumer behaviour at a disaggregate level. At this level, a choice decision is defined in terms of a set of alternatives representing different ‘varieties’ of a particular product differentiated mainly by their quality attributes rather than just prices. Individuals making these choice decisions are also differentiated by their socioeconomic characteristics rather than just income level. DC models therefore are rich in details which are relevant for policies at a microeconomic and intra-sectoral level. In contrast, continuous demand (CD) models are specialized in describing aggregate behaviour at an intersectoral level. DC and CD models are therefore complements rather than substitutes and increasingly, there is a need to combine the use of both types of models to look at activities at a microeconomic and intra-sectoral level but at the same time measuring the impacts of these activities at a macroeconomic and economy-wide level. Using both of these types of models within a single framework (such as that of a spatial general equilibrium model) requires solutions to some theoretical and empirical issues because the two types of models are based on different theoretical approaches and also use different types of data. This paper looks at these issues and presents a way of overcoming the differences and combines the specializations of both types of models in a coherent and consistent manner. The paper also presents an empirical study to illustrate the usefulness of the methodology suggested.

2014-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Cherchi, Elisabetta https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15276 2026-05-05T12:33:02Z 2015-01-01T00:00:00Z

Stated preference surveys and experimental design: an audit of the journey so far and future research perspectives Hensher, David A.; Cherchi, Elisabetta This paper is a synthesis of the discussions and ideas that were generated during the workshop on “Stated preference surveys and experimental design” at the 2014 Travel Survey Methods Conference in Leura (Australia). The workshop addressed the challenges related to the design and implementation of stated preference surveys as a way to capture richer behavioural information on the preferences of individuals and groups. The discussion began by reviewing the current state of stated preference surveys and whether and what we have been doing correctly. We then analysed the areas where improvements are still needed, how we can achieve them, and some pros and cons of each improvement.

2015-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Rose, John M. Tirachini, Alejandro https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15278 2026-05-05T12:33:05Z 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z

Crowding in public transport systems: effects on users, operation and implications for the estimation of demand Hensher, David A.; Rose, John M.; Tirachini, Alejandro The effects of high passenger density at bus stops, at rail stations, inside buses and trains are diverse. This paper examines the multiple dimensions of passenger crowding related to public transport demand, supply and operations, including effects on operating speed, waiting time, travel time reliability, passengers’ wellbeing, valuation of waiting and invehicle time savings, route and bus choice, and optimal levels of frequency, vehicle size and fare. Secondly, crowding externalities are estimated for rail and bus services in Sydney, in order to show the impact of crowding on the estimated value of in‐vehicle time savings and demand prediction. Using Multinomial Logit (MNL) and Error Components models, we show that alternative assumptions concerning the threshold load factor that triggers a crowding externality effect do have an influence on the value of travel time (VTTS) for low occupancy levels (all passengers sitting); however, for high occupancy levels, alternative crowding models estimate similar VTTS. Importantly, if demand for a public transport service is estimated without explicit consideration of crowding as a source of disutility for passengers, demand will be overestimated if the service is designed to have a number of standees beyond a threshold, as analytically shown using a MNL choice model.

2013-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Tirachini, Alejandro Bliemer, Michiel C. J. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15283 2026-05-05T12:33:05Z 2014-01-01T00:00:00Z

Accounting for travel time variability in the optimal pricing of cars and buses Hensher, David A.; Tirachini, Alejandro; Bliemer, Michiel C. J. A number of studies have shown that in addition to the common influences on mode, route and time of day of travel choices such as travel time and cost, travel time variability plays an increasingly important role, especially in the presence of traffic congestion on roads and crowding on public transport. The dominant focus of modelling and implementation of optimal pricing that incorporates trip time variability has been in the context of road pricing for cars. The main objective of this paper is to introduce a non-trivial extension to the existing literature on optimal pricing in a multimodal setting, building in the role of travel time variability as a source of disutility for car and bus users. We estimate the effect of variability in travel time and bus headway on optimal prices (i.e., tolls for cars and fares for buses) and optimal bus capacity (i.e., frequencies and size) accounting for crowding on buses, under a social welfare maximisation framework. Travel time variability is included by adopting the well-known mean-variance model, using an empirical relationship between the mean and standard deviation of travel times. We illustrate our model with an application to a highly congested corridor with cars and buses as travel alternatives in Sydney, Australia. There are three main findings that have immediate policy implications: (i) including travel time variability results in higher optimal car tolls and substantial increases in toll revenue, while optimal bus fares remain almost unchanged; (ii) when bus headways are variable, the inclusion of travel time variability as a source of disutility for users yields higher optimal bus frequencies; and (iii) including both travel time variability and crowding discomfort leads to higher optimal bus sizes.

2014-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Li, Zheng Ho, Chinh https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15277 2026-05-05T12:33:04Z 2015-01-01T00:00:00Z

The role of source preference and subjective probability in valuing expected travel time savings Hensher, David A.; Li, Zheng; Ho, Chinh This paper proposes a fully subjective approach to capture the impact of travel time variability on travel decision making that accommodates subjective probabilities and source preference, the latter construct referring to respondent preferences to make judgments on matters that they have reasonable if only vague beliefs about than on matched chance events. The methods of eliciting subjective probabilities and source preference are discussed together with a suggested way forward to introduce, and hence capture parametrically, attitudes towards uncertainty. Using a 2014 survey of commuters in Sydney, we provide examples of modelling source preference and the implications for valuing expected travel time savings. The paper highlights the limitations of stated choice experiments when subjective attribute levels and their occurrence are relevant, suggesting a return to a revised focus on revealed preference data.

2015-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15275 2026-05-05T12:33:05Z 2015-01-01T00:00:00Z

Data challenges: more behavioural and (relatively) less statistical – a think piece Hensher, David A. The study of traveller behaviour has blossomed into a multi-disciplinary array of theories, methods and data paradigms all aimed at improving our understanding of drivers of passenger and freight movement in time and space. While progress continues unabated, there remains the challenge of extracting more behavioural richness out of the way in which we work to understand the nuances of preference revelation and hence choice making. In particular, we are a long way from understanding what incentives might work best in attracting behavioural responses that government on behalf of society would like to see as travel outcomes that align with specific policy and strategy objectives. In this paper we discuss a number of informative ways of gaining an increased understanding of behavioural response, which leads into a list of data items worthy of inclusion in new surveys. The paper is designed as a thought piece in line with the role it played as a plenary presentation at the opening of the 2014 International Conference on Travel Survey Methods.

2015-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Li, Zheng https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15281 2026-05-05T12:33:06Z 2014-01-01T00:00:00Z

A Scoping Inquiry into the Potential Contribution of Subjective Probability Theory, Dempster-Shafer Theory and Possibility Theory in Accommodating Degrees of Belief in Traveller Behaviour Research Hensher, David A.; Li, Zheng There is a small but growing interest in traveller behaviour research on investigating ways to identify and quantify degrees of belief (as subjective probabilities or other propositions) associated with behavioural responses, especially in the context of popular travel choice methods such as stated choice experiments, as a way of adding to our understanding of decision making in real-world contexts that are associated with inevitable risk and uncertainty. This paper reviews three major theories that are not well known in the transportation literature that have been developed in psychology and decision sciences to accommodate belief, namely Subjective Probability Theory, Dempster-Shafer Theory and Possibility Theory. We focus on how degrees of belief are measured in these theories. The key elements of each theoretical approach are compared, including their mathematical properties and evidence patterns. Despite their being few applications to date in transportation, the review promotes the relevance of accounting for degrees of belief in travel choice analysis.

2014-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Leong, Waiyan https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15282 2026-05-05T12:33:07Z 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z

Embedding Decision Heuristics in Discrete Choice Models: A Review Hensher, David A.; Leong, Waiyan Contrary to the usual assumption of fixed, well-defined preferences, it is increasingly evident that individuals are likely to approach a choice task using rules and decision heuristics that are dependent on the choice environment. More specifically, heuristics that are defined by the local choice context, such as the gains or losses of an attribute value relative to the other attributes, seem to be consistently employed. Recent empirical findings also demonstrate that previous choices and previously encountered choice tasks shown to respondents can affect the current choice outcome, indicating a form of inter-dependence across choice sets. This paper is primarily focused on reviewing how heuristics have been modelled in stated choice data. The paper begins with a review of the heuristics that may be relevant for coping with choice task complexity and then proceeds to discuss some modelling approaches. Next, relational heuristics, such as prospect theory, random regret minimisation and extremeness aversion (compromise effect) are discussed. These are heuristics which operate within the local choice set. Another major class of heuristics reviewed in this paper pertains to ordering effects and more generally, on past outcomes and past attribute levels of the alternatives.

2012-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Ho, Chinh https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15279 2026-05-05T12:33:01Z 2015-01-01T00:00:00Z

The role of perceived acceptability of alternatives in identifying and assessing choice set processing strategies in stated choice settings: The case of road pricing reform Hensher, David A.; Ho, Chinh In designing choice experiments, it is common to present a number of alternatives to a respondent and have them choose the most preferred alternative. However, respondents may ignore one or more alternatives which they deem unacceptable for various reasons. This possibility aligns with the idea of the ‘consideration set’ which influences the choice of an alternative given the choice set of interest. This paper uses an endogenous choice set model to investigate the influence that contextual effects and socioeconomic characteristics play in explaining variations in the choice sets considered by respondents when they reveal their preferences.

2015-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Li, Zheng https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15285 2026-05-05T12:33:01Z 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z

Crowding in Public Transport: A Review of Objective and Subjective Measures Hensher, David A.; Li, Zheng Crowding in public transport is becoming a growing concern as demand grows at a rate that is outstripping available capacity. To capture the user benefits associated with reduced crowding from improved public transport, it is necessary to identify the relevant dimensions of crowding that are meaningful measures of what crowding means to travellers. There are a number of objective and subjective measures of crowding promoted in the literature, with some objective measures being used as the basis of a standard of acceptable levels of practice. There is a disconnection between objective measures and subjective measures, the latter representing what matters to users. We illustrate the difference in a comparison of monitored crowding levels using crowding measures defined by the rail operator/authority in Sydney and Melbourne, and the level of crowding experienced by rail passengers from two recent surveys, to reveal the significant gap between objective and subjective measures of crowding.

2013-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15280 2026-05-05T12:33:01Z 2014-01-01T00:00:00Z

Attribute processing as a behavioural strategy in choice making Hensher, David A. Choice modelling is an increasingly important technique for forecasting and valuation, with applications in fields such as transportation, health and environmental economics. for this reason it has attracted attention from leading academics and practitioners and methods have advanced substantially in recent years. This Handbook, composed of contributions from senior figures in the field, summarises the essential analytical techniques and discusses the key current research issues. It will be of interest to academics, students and practitioners in a wide range of areas.

2014-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Greene, William H. Collins, Andrew T. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15270 2026-05-05T12:33:00Z 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z

Accounting for Attribute Non-Attendance and Common-Metric Aggregation in a Probabilistic Decision Process Mixed Multinomial Logit Model: A Warning on Potential Confounding Hensher, David A.; Greene, William H.; Collins, Andrew T. Latent class models offer an alternative perspective to the popular mixed logit form, replacing the continuous distribution with a discrete distribution in which preference heterogeneity is captured by membership of distinct classes of utility description. Within each class, preference homogeneity is usually assumed, although interactions with observed contextual effects are permissible. A natural extension of the fixed parameter latent class model is a random parameter latent class model which allows for another layer of preference heterogeneity within each class. A further extension is to overlay attribute processing rules such as attribute non-attendance (ANA) and aggregation of common-metric attributes (ACMA). This paper sets out the random parameter latent class model with ANA and ACMA, and illustrates its application using a stated choice data set in the context of car commuters and non-commuters choosing amongst alternative packages of travel times and costs pivoted around a recent trip in Australia. What we find is that for the particular data set analysed, in the presence of attribute processing together with the discrete distributions defined by latent classes, that adding an additional layer of heterogeneity through random parameters within a latent class only very marginally improves on the statistical contribution of the model. Nearly all of the additional fit over the fixed parameter latent class model is added by the account for attribute processing. This is an important finding that might suggest the role that attribute processing rules play in accommodating attribute heterogeneity, and that random parameters within class are essentially a potentially confounding effect. An interesting finding, however, is that the introduction of random parameters increases the probability of membership to full attribute attendance classes, which may suggest that some individuals assign a very low marginal disutility (but not zero) to specific attributes or that there are very small differences in the marginal disutility of common-metric attributes, and this is being accommodated by random parameters, but not observed under fixed parameter latent class model.

2013-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Tu, Huizhao Li, Hao https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15272 2026-05-05T12:33:00Z 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Integrating the Mean-Variance and Scheduling Approaches to allow for Schedule delay and Trip Time Variability under Uncertainty Hensher, David A.; Tu, Huizhao; Li, Hao Uncertainty of travel times and the impact on travel choice behavior has been recognized as an increasingly important research direction in the past decade. This paper proposes an extension to the popular scheduling approach to modeling traveler’s departure time choice behavior under uncertainty, with the main focus on a richer representation of uncertainty. This more general approach incorporates a separate term to reflect the risk aversion associated with uncertainty. Recognizing the correlation between expected schedule delay and travel time variability, the schedule delay components in the generalized approach are defined in terms of expected travel time, which differs from the scheduling approach. This approach is developed based on the analytical investigation of the relationship between the expected schedule delay and the mean and standard deviation of travel time. An analytical equivalence was found between the scheduling approach and the general approach given a departure time t. To investigate the empirical performance of the generalized approach, two state preference (SP) data sets are used; one from China with a symmetric travel time distribution and the other from Australia with an asymmetric distribution. Both studies show empirical evidence of an equivalence in respect of statistical fit between the generalized and the scheduling approaches, as found from analytical investigations. The Chinese study gives support in the generalized model to including both the mean-variance and the scheduling effects; whereas the Australian study finds only the mean-variance specification has statistical merit. Despite the different travel contexts, it is noteworthy in both empirical settings, that the parameter estimate for arriving earlier than the preferred arrival time (PAT) in the generalized model is positive. This suggests that commuters tend to prefer to arrive earlier in order to guarantee he/she will not be late. This paper contributes to a better understanding of performances of different reliability measures and their relationships. The practical value of the various unreliability measures is provided showing that these indicators are easy to obtain for inclusion in project appraisal.

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Li, Zheng https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15273 2026-05-05T12:33:06Z 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z

Behavioural implications of preferences, risk attitudes and beliefs in modelling risky travel choice with travel time variability Hensher, David A.; Li, Zheng The appropriate interpretation of a behavioural outcome requires allowing for risk attitude and belief of an individual, in addition to identification of preferences. This paper develops an Attribute-Specific Extended Rank-Dependent Utility Theory model to better understand choice behaviour in the presence of travel time variability, in which these three important components of choice are empirically addressed. This framework is more behaviourally appealing for travel time and travel time variability research than the traditional approach in which risk attitude and belief are overlooked. This model also reveals significant unobserved between-individual heterogeneity in preferences, risk attitudes and beliefs.

2013-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Bliemer, Michiel C. J. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15265 2026-05-05T12:39:31Z 2014-01-01T00:00:00Z

What Type of Road Pricing Scheme might appeal to Politicians? Viewpoints on the Challenge in gaining the citizen and public servant vote by staging reform Hensher, David A.; Bliemer, Michiel C. J. The greatest hurdle facing road pricing reform is political commitment. With rare exception, efforts to introduce significant reform in road pricing, aimed at raising sufficient revenue to ensure that road investment and ongoing maintenance is secured, without an additional impost to users above current outlays, while at the same time reducing traffic congestion, has fallen largely on politically non-supportive ears. The big challenge is to convince politicians (and their advisers) that it is possible to reform road pricing so that users are made better off (at least the great majority) in terms of time spent travelling and monies outlaid, and that government secures growing levels of revenue, but with at least some funds being used to improve public transport and the existing road network. This paper identifies the major issues that make much of the academic research into road pricing somewhat limited in terms of achieving real change. Staging reform is an appealing way forward, but ensuring the order and timing of events to secure progress is the big challenge. We offer some suggestions, including some ideas on new language designed to increase the level of buy in, and recognise that progress through action will require compromises in respect of an ‘ideal’ economically efficient pricing reform agenda.

2014-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Tirachini, Alejandro Rose, John M https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15269 2026-05-05T12:33:03Z 2014-01-01T00:00:00Z

Multimodal pricing and optimal design of urban public transport: the interplay between traffic congestion and bus crowding Hensher, David A.; Tirachini, Alejandro; Rose, John M The interplay between congestion and crowding externalities in the design of urban bus systems is identified and analysed. A multimodal social welfare maximisation model with spatially disaggregated demand is developed, in which users choose between travelling by bus, car or walking in a transport corridor. Optimisation variables are bus fare, congestion toll, bus frequency, bus size, fare collection system, bus boarding policy and the number of seats inside buses. We find that optimal bus frequency results from a trade‐off between the level of congestion inside buses, i.e., passengers’ crowding, and the level of congestion outside buses, i.e., the effect of frequency on slowing down both buses and cars in mixed‐traffic roads. A numerical application shows that optimal frequency is quite sensitive to the assumptions on crowding costs, impact of buses on traffic congestion, and overall congestion level. If crowding matters to users, buses should have as many seats as possible, up to a minimum area that must be left free of seats. If for any other reason planners decide to have buses with fewer seats than optimal (e.g., to increase bus capacity), frequency should be increased to compensate for the discomfort imposed on public transport users. Finally, the consideration of crowding externalities (on both seating and standing) imposes a sizeable increase in the optimal bus fare, and consequently, a reduction of the optimal bus subsidy.

2014-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Li, Zheng https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15266 2026-05-05T12:33:01Z 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z

Referendum Voting in Road Pricing Reform: A Review of the Evidence Hensher, David A.; Li, Zheng Voting support for congestion charging has a very recent history with, until now, only two congestion charging schemes approved by a majority in referendum voting (Stockholm and Milan). This paper presents a review of referendum voting behaviour in road pricing reform, in which a number of key factors that influence voters’ behaviour are identified including voter expectations, awareness of what road pricing reform means, familiarity with the road pricing debate, perceived fairness, environmental concerns, car dependence, and the value of a trial. The two most important reasons that the majority of congestion charging proposals were voted against in referenda in jurisdictions such as Manchester and Edinburgh in the UK are uncertainty associated with the effectiveness of congestion charging and the lack of information on congestion charging. Based on two successful congestion charging referenda and ideas from research studies, this paper proposes a two-step approach to address the barriers to the successful implementation of congestion charging in a package of transport reform initiatives.

2013-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Stanley, John https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15268 2026-05-05T12:33:07Z 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z

Environmental and social taxes: reforming road pricing in Australia Hensher, David A.; Stanley, John Pricing of road use, both in Australia and elsewhere, has long been recognised as an area where current arrangements are economically inefficient but also politically very difficult to change. The 2011 Australian Tax Forum provides an opportunity to revisit this question and lay out a pathway for change. This paper summarises some past analyses of the costs of road use in Australia, to demonstrate the broad extent of under-recovery of costs. The external costs, such as congestion, accidents and greenhouse gas emissions, which are the reason for the cost recovery gap are outlined. International experience with congestion charging, a key component (but not the whole) of road pricing reform is summarised, showing how sustained reductions in congestion levels and associated costs are achievable. That experience also shows the importance of political leadership to achieve implementation, often in the face of minority support pre-implementation. Some illustrative calculations of how Australian road use charges may need to increase, on average, under a reformed road pricing regime are presented. The paper concludes by arguing that an independently run two year community conversation around reforming road pricing, reporting to COAG, is the critical starting point if there is to be a successful implementation program.

2011-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Li, Zheng https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15267 2026-05-05T12:33:07Z 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z

Congestion Charging and Car Use: A Review of Stated Preference and Opinion Studies Hensher, David A.; Li, Zheng This paper reviews 17 published congestion pricing studies with a focus on the dimensions of the stated preference or opinion survey, especially the type of charging regime and the structure of the charge. The effectiveness and acceptability of different charging regimes, as well as behavioural responses such as changes in departure time, car use, mode, residential and work location, are synthesised, and used to provide insights to enrich our understanding of the potential role that specific road pricing schemes might play in influencing behavioural change.

2012-01-01T00:00:00Z Hensher, David A. Mulley, Corinne https://hdl.handle.net/2123/15264 2026-05-05T12:33:02Z 2014-01-01T00:00:00Z

Complementing Distance based Charges with Discounted Registration Fees in the Reform of Road User Charges: the Impact for Motorists and Government Revenue Hensher, David A.; Mulley, Corinne The call for a congestion charge is getting louder and more frequent in many countries as major metropolitan areas experience increasing levels of road congestion. This is often accompanied by a recognition that governments need to find new sources of revenue to maintain existing road networks and to invest in new transport infrastructure. Although reform of road pricing is almost certain to occur at some time in the future in a number of countries, a key challenge is in selling the idea to the community of road users as well as a whole raft of interest groups that influence the views of society and politicians. Simply announcing a need for a congestion charge (often misleadingly called a tax) does little to progress the reform agenda. What is required is a carefully structured demonstration of what might be done to progressively introduce adjustments in road user charges that are seen as reducing the costs to motorists while ensuring no loss of revenue to government. In this paper we show, in the context of Sydney (Australia), that this can be achieved by the reform of registration fees in the presence of a distance-based charging regime that can deliver financial gains to motorists, with prospects of revenue growth to the State Treasury.

2014-01-01T00:00:00Z