• Asymptotic Theory for Rotated Multivariate GARCH Models 

      Asai, Manabu; Chang, Chia-Lin; McAleer, Michael; Pauwels, Laurent
      Published 2019-03-20
      In this paper, we derive the statistical properties of a two step approach to estimating multivariate GARCH rotated BEKK (RBEKK) models. By the definition of rotated BEKK, we estimate the unconditional covariance matrix ...
      Open Access
      Working Paper
    • Do External Political Pressures Affect the Renminbi Exchange Rate? 

      Pauwels, Laurent; Liu, Li-Gang
      Published 2011-09-01
      This paper investigates whether external political pressure for faster renminbi (RMB) appreciation affect both the daily returns and the conditional volatility of the RMB central parity rate. We construct several political ...
      Open Access
      Working Paper
    • Equivalence of optimal forecast combinations under affine constraints 

      Chan, Felix; Pauwels, Laurent
      Published 2019-03-19
      Forecasts are usually produced from models and expert judgements. The reconciliation of different forecasts presents an interesting challenge for managerial decisions. Mean absolute deviations and mean squared errors scoring ...
      Open Access
      Working Paper
    • Forecast combination for discrete choice models: predicting FOMC monetary policy decisions 

      Pauwels, Laurent; Vasnev, Andrey
      Published 2011-06-01
      This paper provides a methodology for combining forecasts based on several discrete choice models. This is achieved primarily by combining one-step-ahead probability forecast associated with each model. The paper applies ...
      Open Access
      Working Paper
    • Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data 

      Vasnev, Andrey; Pauwels, Laurent
      Published 2013-01-01
      This paper proposes the use of forecast combination to improve predictive accuracy in forecasting the U.S. business cycle index as published by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the NBER. It focuses on one-step ahead ...
      Open Access
      Working Paper
    • Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data 

      Vasnev, Andrey; Pauwels, Laurent
      Published 2013-03-01
      This paper proposes the use of forecast combination to improve predictive accuracy in forecasting the U.S. business cycle index, as published by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the NBER. It focuses on one-step ahead ...
      Open Access
      Working Paper
    • Fundamental Moments 

      Imbs, Jean; Pauwels, Laurent
      Published 2019-05-08
      Global trade can give rise to global hubs, centers of activity whose influence on the global economy is large enough that local disturbances have consequences in the aggregate. This paper investigates the nature, existence, ...
      Open Access
      Working Paper
    • Higher Moment Constraints for Predictive Density Combinations 

      Pauwels, Laurent; Radchenko, Peter; Vasnev, Andrey
      Published 2019-03-19
      The majority of financial data exhibit asymmetry and heavy tails, which makes forecasting the entire density critically important. Recently, a forecast combina- tion methodology has been developed to combine predictive ...
      Open Access
      Working Paper
    • Higher Moment Constraints for Predictive Density Combinations 

      Pauwels, Laurent; Radchenko, Peter; Vasnev, Andrey
      Published 2020-05-01
      The majority of financial data exhibit asymmetry and heavy tails, which makes forecasting the entire density critically important. Recently, a forecast combination methodology has been developed to combine predictive ...
      Open Access
      Article
    • Practical considerations for optimal weights in density forecast combination 

      Vasnev, Andrey; Pauwels, Laurent
      Published 2013-01-01
      The problem of finding appropriate weights to combine several density forecasts is an important issue currently debated in the forecast combination literature. Recently, a paper by Hall and Mitchell (IJF, 2007) proposes ...
      Open Access
      Working Paper
    • Predicting China’s Monetary Policy with Forecast Combinations 

      Pauwels, Laurent
      Published 2019-05-14
      China’s monetary policy is unconventional and constantly evolving as a result of its rapid economic development. This paper proposes to use forecast combinations to predict the People’s Bank of China’s monetary policy ...
      Open Access
      Working Paper