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http://hdl.handle.net/2123/7788
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| Title: | Using Agent-Based Models to Understand the Surprising Complexity of Global Markets |
| Authors: | Earnest, David University of Sydney Business School |
| Keywords: | Agent Modelling Complex Complexity Systems Business Markets Simulation Management Marketing Interaction Strategic Ecological Reflexive Non-linear Emergence Network Economy Adaptive Complex Adaptive Systems |
| Issue Date: | 6-Jul-2011 |
| Series/Report no.: | ABM Wednesday Colloquium 1 |
| Abstract: | Why is the economy “complex”? For all the recent advances in the management sciences, businesses today face markets full of unexpected events, from cascading failures of lending institutions to speculative investment and the explosive growth of tech firms. In this talk, I argue that the complexity sciences, particularly a simulation methodology known as agent-based modeling, will help key decision-makers anticipate the global dynamics of modern consumers, firms and markets. The talk demonstrates that many of the “surprises” we observe in today’s economy arise from our poor understanding of the relationship between what Nobel laureate Thomas Schelling called “micro motives and macro behavior”—that is, how individual decisions produce social structural outcomes. Our thinking tends to suffer from two fallacies: of composition (inferring structural properties from observing the behavior of individuals) and the ecological fallacy (inferring individual attributes from observing social aggregates). The talk illustrates how agent-based modeling helps us bridge the divide between individual agency and social structure. Using examples from economics and politics, I illustrate the four principal causes of complexity in today’s business climate: interaction effects, strategic complexity, ecological complexity, and reflexive complexity. |
| Description: | Presentation by Associate Professor David Earnest from Old Dominion University (U.S.A.) at the Agent-Based Modelling Intensive Course Wednesday Colloquium, held at The University of Sydney Business School in July 2011. This presentation gives an introduction to complexity, the types of complexity, and how agent-based modelling can be used to understand complex systems. |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2123/7788 |
| Department/Unit/Centre: | University of Sydney Business School |
| Type of Work: | Presentation Recording, oral Video |
| Appears in Collections: | Agent-Based Modelling |
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