The Degree of Capital Mobility in Thailand: Some Estimates Using a Cointegration Approach

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical estimate of the degree of international capital mobility in Thailand. A model of interest rate determination which allows for imperfectly mobile capital and the impact of both domestic and international influences on the domestic rate is developed and estimated using cointegration techniques. The results indicate that domestic interest rates have been influenced significantly by foreign interest rates. However, despite several reductions in capital control in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the degree of capital mobility appears not to be as high as previously reported nor to have increased significantly. The finding of a moderately high degree of capital mobility coupled with a reasonable EC-type, short-run dynamic adjustment equation for the domestic interest rate implies that there is still some scope for the Thai authorities to conduct an independent monetary policy.