https://hdl.handle.net/2123/5862 Wed, 10 Jun 2026 21:37:46 GMT 2026-06-10T21:37:46Z https://ses.library.usyd.edu.au:443/bitstream/id/d1798e8d-4e54-4c68-b1f9-5268ee2631f6/itls_logo_sydney.png https://hdl.handle.net/2123/5862 https://hdl.handle.net/2123/35372 A Nexus or Not? A First Examination of Cost-of-Living Concern, Neighbourhood Perceptions, Active Travel, and Wellbeing in Cities Beck, Matthew J.; Greaves, Stephen This paper is a first step in the literature, looking at potential links between cost-of-living stress and the perceptions of local neighbourhoods, under the hypothesis that greater pressure about housing affordability, transportation costs, or indeed cost-of-living overall could lead to a degradation in how the neighbourhood within which a person lives is perceived. We find confirmation that cost-of-living goes beyond technical measures of housing stress and indeed beyond just housing stress alone. Of relevance is that those who could be classified as having rising concern (consumables) have among the highest levels of relative stress. We find that there is generally just as much concern about the rising cost of fuel, which is directly related to trip making, further compounding transport accessibility and equity. Overall, our first attempt to investigate the potential nexus of cost-of-living, neighbourhood perception, wellbeing, physical activity and active travel, produces enough evidence and insight to establish that there are potential links which are likely to play out in unknown ways during cost-of-living crises. We argue that our results are sufficient enough that research should extend them to transportation costs and trip making more generally and urge other researchers to consider building on these insights. Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/35372 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/35301 Should I stay or should I travel? An analysis of increasing petrol prices on travel behaviour Pellegrini, Andrea; Beck, Matthew J.; Rose, John M. This paper examines how rising petrol prices affect weekly travel behaviour, with particular attention to modal substitution and trip suppression. The analysis draws on stated responses from 808 Queensland residents, each of whom first reported their travel behaviour for the week prior to the survey and then indicated how that behaviour would change under three hypothetical petrol price scenarios set at AUD 2.50, AUD 3.00, and AUD 3.50 per litre (noting fuel prices at the pump varied between an average of AUD 2.20 and AUD 2.53 during the survey period). Weekly trip frequencies are jointly modelled for eight travel outcomes, including car travel as driver, car travel as passenger, public transport, taxi, rideshare, cycling, walking, and avoided trips. The latter category is included within the hypothetical setting to capture the extent to which increase in petrol prices may lead travellers to cancel or forgo trips altogether, rather than simply reallocate travel across modes. The empirical analysis is performed implementing a multivariate Generalised Poisson framework with dependence across travel alternatives introduced through a Gaussian copula. The results indicate that higher petrol prices substantially reduce car travel both as driver car passenger, while increasing public transport use, particularly at the higher price scenarios. However, the substitution towards public transport is only partial. A sizeable share of the adjustment instead occurs through avoided trips, suggesting that fuel price increases are more likely to suppress travel rather than simply induce a reallocation across modes. The findings further show that behavioural responses vary with socio-economic circumstances and perceived transport disadvantage, implying that the burden of higher fuel prices is unevenly distributed. Overall, the paper shows that rising petrol prices affect not only mode choice, but also the ability of individuals to maintain everyday mobility and activity participation. Tue, 12 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/35301 2026-05-12T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/35286 The impact of fuel prices and supply availability on user behavioural change in Australian household travel amidst global turmoil Hensher, David A.; Wei, Edward; Liu, Wen; Nelson, John D. The global conflict in the Middle East is having a significant impact on the availability of oil to many countries, with Australia feeling the impact more than most countries. Fuel prices escalated during the first three weeks of the war (up to the end of March 2026), typically being 30-50% higher than the retail prices at the pump under normal market conditions. Supply uncertainty has also created problems in distribution, especially for farmers, trucking companies and retail outlets. In response to the escalated fuel prices at the pump, the Federal government announced, on 31 March, a reduction in fuel excise for three months (from 52.6 to 26.3 cents per litre) with state and territory leaders agreeing to pass on the additional goods and services tax windfall to motorists (further reducing the total to 20.6c/litre as well as the removal of the heavy vehicle road user charge for the same period (the latter of 32.4 cents per litre is reduced to zero). This paper explores ways in which users of passenger cars have responded to these price hikes and supply uncertainty. A series of questions incorporated in a survey of 1,000 New South Wales (Australia) residents in the first two weeks of April 2026, up to a temporary ceasefire and US blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, sought evidence on behavioural change responses such as modal switching for work and non-work-related travel, changes in car kilometres, car sharing, working from home, purchase of an electric or hybrid vehicle, and switching car use between petrol/diesel and electric vehicles in the current household fleet. These responses are embedded in a number of scenarios that vary fuel prices and fuel scarcity (availability and rationing) to assess the likely behavioural response in the short run and in the longer run if a scenario becomes reality. Overall, the key policy takeaway is that fuel pricing is most effective as a short run signal and selective rationing tool, while long run resilience depends on structural adaptation, especially vehicle technology, income buffering, and access to substitutes. Fri, 08 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/35286 2026-05-08T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/35100 Who Accepts Parking Pricing? Trust and Legitimacy in a Contentious Policy Change Beck, Matthew J. This paper examines public responses to the introduction of paid visitor parking as a contentious local policy change in a tourism-dependent region. While parking pricing is widely recognised as an effective tool for managing demand and generating revenue, less is known about how such policies are interpreted and legitimised by affected communities. Using the Blue Mountains in New South Wales as a case study, the study treats the introduction of paid parking as a natural experiment in user-pays reform under conditions of infrastructure funding pressure and climate-related disruption. A mixed-methods approach is employed, combining survey data, factor analysis, clustering, and qualitative thematic analysis to identify patterns in attitudes and interpretation. The findings show that acceptance is not primarily driven by demographic characteristics or behavioural exposure, but by institutional trust, beliefs about collective responsibility, and perceptions of governance quality. Three distinct attitudinal segments are identified, reflecting differing configurations of support, trust, and normative beliefs. Despite the scheme’s demonstrated effectiveness as a revenue-generating instrument capable of supporting substantial infrastructure investment, public acceptance remains contested. The policy is frequently interpreted through a “revenue raising” frame, particularly where trust is limited. The paper argues that parking pricing operates not only as an economic instrument but as a governance signal, with legitimacy contingent on transparency, fairness, and the visible reinvestment of revenues. Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/35100 2026-04-13T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/35097 Ready to Begin: Driving Towards the Best and Steering Away from the Worst in Road Pricing Policy Reform Beck, Matthew J.; Bliemer, Michiel C.J.; Rose, John M. Declining revenue from traditional road funding sources, rising infrastructure costs, and the transition to electric vehicles have increased the urgency of road user charging reform as a key demand management strategy. While such schemes can improve transport system efficiency by pricing congestion and other externalities, their implementation requires careful balancing with concerns around fairness and affordability. Public acceptability therefore remains a critical constraint on policy adoption. This paper examines which policy features most strongly influence support for road user charging and how these preferences can inform the design of policies that advance efficiency, fairness, and affordability objectives. A best worst scaling approach is used to elicit the relative importance of policy features, with choices modelled using a hybrid choice framework that captures both observed preferences and underlying attitudes. Three distinct behavioural classes are identified, reflecting differing priorities related to efficiency, fairness and consistency, and broader public benefit. Across these groups, governance and institutional arrangements are central to perceived legitimacy. Features such as public ownership, not for profit operation, independent investment decision making, and transparent revenue use are strongly preferred, while more complex pricing mechanisms are viewed less favourably. The findings highlight the importance of trust, fairness, and affordability in supporting effective and acceptable reform. Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/35097 2026-04-10T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34900 Achieving sustainable travel behaviour change – Insights from practitioners Nelson, John D.; Hensher, David A.; Mulley, Corinne; Kandanaarachchi, Thiranjaya; Wei, Edward; Balbontin, Camila; Liu, Wen Sustainable travel behaviour change has garnered increasing attention in response to the pressing challenges posed by traffic congestion, greenhouse gas emissions, and the broader impacts of travel on public health and wellbeing. This paper draws on insights from a series of expert roundtable discussions involving stakeholders from government, industry organisations, and research institutions with the primary objective of gathering multidisciplinary perspectives to inform the development of an overarching conceptual framework that supports the design of context-sensitive and effective behaviour change interventions. Themes emerging from the discussions were critically reviewed and mapped to relevant behavioural constructs such as attitudes, perceived behavioural control, subjective norms, and intention. The ensuing framework synthesises theoretical foundations from established behaviour change models with real-world experiences in the transport domain, offering a structured lens through which to interpret the drivers and barriers of behavioural shifts. Key insights that emerged include the critical role of overarching policies and goals enabled through collaborative governance, the need for inclusive and user centred interventions aligned with personal and societal benefits and the need for stakeholder collaboration within and across different sectors. By presenting evidence-informed recommendations and a cohesive conceptual framework, this paper offers a foundation for advancing sustainable transport through targeted and systemic behavioural change initiatives. Thu, 26 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34900 2026-02-26T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34831 From New to Second-Hand: Consumer Trade-offs Between Price, Range and Vehicle Condition for BEVs and Hybrids in Australia Rose, John M.; Pellegrini, Andrea Most empirical work on vehicle choice has focused on new-vehicle purchase decisions, even though households often acquire vehicles through the second-hand market and face a different set of constraints and information conditions. This paper addresses that gap by estimating a single choice framework that spans new and second-hand passenger vehicle markets, allowing direct comparison of how consumers value vehicle attributes and how substitution patterns differ across the two segments. We use a discrete choice experiment administered to a New South Wales sample, with alternatives that include new and second-hand vehicles and an opt-out, and attributes that reflect both markets, including purchase price, body type, vehicle size, powertrain, range, delivery availability for new vehicles, and odometer and condition for second-hand vehicles. Preferences are estimated using a two-class latent class model with error components to capture correlation in unobserved utility and segment-specific substitution within new and second-hand markets. The results show substantial heterogeneity in valuations and clear differences between new and second-hand decision processes, with second-hand quality signals exerting economically meaningful effects and price sensitivity being stronger for second-hand choices. Powertrain attributes matter, but their implications vary by market segment and by class, indicating that technology preferences interact with the institutional and informational features of the market in which the vehicle is acquired. Applying the estimated class-membership model to population microdata, we generate conditional parameter and willingness-to-pay distributions for a large synthetic population and predict market shares for simulated vehicle profiles. The simulation results underscore that secondary-market dynamics materially shape predicted demand patterns, which has implications for policies and market designs that aim to influence fleet composition through interventions that operate in, or propagate through, the second-hand market. Tue, 10 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34831 2026-02-10T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34830 Multivariate Perceptions of Post-Purchase EV Ownership Issues Pellegrini, Andrea; Cherchi, Elisabetta; Rose, John M. The objective of this study is to examine how electric vehicle (EV) owners perceive a range of post-purchase issues that are relevant to EV adoption. Using a nationwide sample of 1,794 Australian EV owners, we analyse the importance assigned to seven post-acquisition concerns: range anxiety, public charging availability, charging duration, upfront price and value for money, model availability and consumer choice, trust of new technologies, and battery fire safety. The empirical findings suggest that there exist differences across EV users in terms of socio-economic factors, home charging infrastructure factors and vehicle characteristics with respect to the seven rating dimensions. Further, post-purchase concerns appear to be highly positive interdependent, particularly regarding charging infrastructure, technological trust and safety, and financial aspects. Finally, simulation results show that public charging infrastructure remains highly important, even if all respondents are assumed to have access to solar panels for EV charging activities. Tue, 10 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34830 2026-02-10T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34825 Valuing the eudaimonic wellbeing benefits of land use transport measures Stanley, John; Hensher, David A.; Vella-Brodrick, Dianne A.; Stanley, Janet Benefit measurement for locally-focused land use transport interventions is often narrow. The ultimate purpose of such interventions is often improved citizen wellbeing, yet this is seldom measured or monetized. Adding such valuation provides a way to more comprehensively reflect the value of associated interventions. Subjective wellbeing measurement is broadly divided between hedonic and eudaimonic streams, benefit monetization focusing on the value of changes in life satisfaction (part of hedonic wellbeing). While improving life satisfaction might have initial value, this might not be sustained if eudaimonic wellbeing is not concurrently promoted, suggesting land use transport policy/planning should take a broader view of what it means for people to be ‘well’ than is embedded in life satisfaction. However, no values have been identified for changes in levels of eudaimonic wellbeing, partly because of lack of agreement about how to best measure eudaimonic wellbeing. To address this monetisation gap, the paper develops a value for changes in eudaimonic wellbeing, measured using Ryff’s (1989) Scale, and explores implications for valuing wellbeing as life satisfaction. The resulting eudaimonic wellbeing values are likely to be particularly useful for evaluating land use/transport initiatives with a local focus, such as walking and place-making improvements, but the monetised values are more broadly applicable. Literature implied that changes in eudaimonic wellbeing may have higher monetized value than changes in life satisfaction, because of the broader societal connections embedded within eudaimonic wellbeing, an expectation confirmed in the analysis, highlighting the policy importance of eudaimonic wellbeing. Mon, 09 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34825 2026-02-09T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34774 Is the Debate on Net Zero Emission Targets in Australia Aligned with Political Preference Bias? Hensher, David A.; Wei, Edward; Greene, William H. Net Zero emission targets have become a politically sensitive policy in many, but not all, countries. It is suggested that they are not achievable and are potentially misaligned with energy security as Net Zero becomes intertwined with the move towards renewables and away from fossil fuel energy sources, where the latter is widely seen as the baseload for many nations. Australia is embroiled in a political debate on whether Net Zero as a target will achieve its emission objectives in the presence of escalating energy prices and uncertainty in respect of cost and damage to an economy, given a wealth of fossil fuel resources, as well as some support for nuclear power which currently is not sanctioned by the Federal government. There has been a lot of media attention to Net Zero (CO2) or greenhouse gas emissions, and it is unclear whether it is well understood, and what it might mean for Australia, given there are views that it is either a great idea or a bad idea. This paper draws on a new survey in Australia to gain an appreciation of public understanding of Net Zero and what the public thinks it might mean for Australians, and how their preferences are aligned with support for political parties. We estimate a hybrid logit choice model of support for political parties that encapsulates the endogeneity of “soft” variables such as latent attitude variables that are driven by observable “causes,” and unobservable heterogeneity, which together with contextual and socioeconomic characteristics provide evidence on preference bias for or against Net Zero associated with political affiliation. Wed, 28 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34774 2026-01-28T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34730 A decade of Mobility-as-a-Service research: A systematic review of modeling methods and future research agenda Xi, Haoning; Hensher, David A.; Zhang, Yimeng; Zhang, Xiang; Shao, Zhiqi; Nelson, John D.; Waller, S. Travis Over the last decade (2015–2025), Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) has rapidly evolved from a visionary concept into a mature, user-centric socio-technical ecosystem. This paper marks a ten-year methodological milestone by conducting a PRISMA-guided systematic review of 92 peer-reviewed journal articles from Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar. The existing body of quantitative modeling literature informing MaaS design, operations, and regulation remains fragmented across disciplines, assumptions, and decisionmaking layers. In response, we propose a unified framework that categorizes the literature into six methodological families: simulation models, optimization models, discrete choice models, other statistical methods, data-driven and predictive machine learning models, and game theory and mechanism design models. Using this framework, we map these modeling methods onto four core MaaS research themes: demand-side modeling, supply-side operations, MaaS ecosystem governance, and platform and subscription bundle design. Major findings indicate that existing demand studies have predominantly relied on stated-preference valuations of MaaS subscription plans and bundles, with only limited revealedpreference validation; optimization models have increasingly formalized allocation, matching, and assignment under operational constraints, albeit often assuming overly simplified traveler behavior; and machine learning techniques have expanded rapidly but are generally deployed as stand-alone prediction tools rather than integrated into policy-constrained decision support systems. In addition, the maturity levels of each methodological family reveal significant disparities: foundational areas such as revealed-preference modeling and choice-based optimization are well-established (extensively studied), while emerging fields like machine learning and game theory remain less studied or in early-stage exploration. To advance the field, we provide a forward-looking agenda of 20 research directions, prioritizing more data-driven behavioral modeling, tighter demand–supply integration in operational settings, new multi-sector partnerships, and the concept of Mobility-as-a-Feature. We emphasize planning for equity and long-term impacts and the responsible incorporation of emerging technologies into next-generation MaaS. This systematic methodological review provides evidence-based guidance and a structured roadmap for researchers, operators, and policymakers, addressing identified gaps and highlighting areas requiring further development to support robust, policyaligned decision-making in MaaS. Tue, 20 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34730 2026-01-20T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34713 Establishing Evidence of Initiatives undertaken by Non Mobility Service Providers that are aligned with Sustainable Travel Behaviour Change as a next generation focus of MaaS as MaaF Hensher, David A.; Nelson, John D.; Balbontin, Camila; Ho, Chinh; Wei, Edward; Mulley, Corinne; Kandanaarachchi, Thiranjaya Mobility as a Service (MaaS) has garnered a significant amount of interest over the last 15 years and yet we have very little to show in Western nations in terms of its influence on travel behaviour aligned with sustainability goals, as well as an encouraging business case with or without an injection of significant government subsidy or private venture capital. While we see claimed success in Japan and China, this is the result of a government led and controlled initiative with extensive subsidy, something which appears to be beyond possibility in most countries. Certainly, to date, there are examples of Governments (e.g., across Europe) claiming interest and commitment but no financial support beyond existing subsidy to public transport available to all users. In researching MaaS over the last 10 years, we have come to the position that its future may reside in a greater involvement of non-mobility service providers (NMSPs) in recognition that a multi-service focus may offer up some real prospects of not only delivering desirable travel behaviour change but in facilitating a scalable outcome. Mobility as a Feature (MaaF) is one interpretation of this revised eco-system and has informed us of the potential opportunities that can be invoked through participation of NMSPs. To understand whether this has prospects, a survey in six countries in 2024 was undertaken to identify initiatives that are already in place within private enterprise and government agencies that align well with contributing to sustainable travel behaviour goals. The results suggest that much is already happening, but it has not been recognised as a MaaS/MaaF-like initiative. This paper presents the evidence and suggests a re-interpretation of what a future MaaS portfolio may look like, noting that this scalable future does not have to depend on the transport service providers working together other than their presence in providing services in the market to anyone wishing to use them. The focus historically on transport service providers appears to have been a major roadblock in progressing MaaS. Thu, 15 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34713 2026-01-15T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34712 Towards a conceptual framework of hard and soft behaviour change interventions in sustainable transport Nelson, John D.; Hensher, David A.; Mulley, Corinne; Kandanaarachchi, Thiranjaya; Wei, Edward; Balbontin, Camila; Liu, Wen This paper aims to identify effective strategies for promoting behavioural change towards more sustainable travel patterns, drawing on evidence from the literature and practice. Established objectives for behaviour change interventions include reducing emissions, alleviating congestion, and enhancing overall well-being through targeted interventions. Drawing on existing frameworks for behaviour change, the paper focuses on the key dimensions which are relevant to the design and evaluation of policy measures. A multi-dimensional conceptual framework of behaviour change interventions in transport is proposed to highlight the importance of combining ‘hard’ measures, such as road user charges and infrastructure investments, with ‘soft’ measures, like public awareness campaigns and incentive programmes. The other three dimensions cover the timeframe for change, the level of change impact and the “push” and “pull” change strategies. Evidence of previous impact is presented, distinguishing between marginal and non-marginal changes and, where appropriate, the longevity of impact. The evidence demonstrates that tailoring these strategies to specific population segments and geographic contexts is crucial for delivering impact, particularly given the diverse travel needs and socio-demographic factors that exist within different jurisdictions. The paper concludes with recommendations for advancing research to better understand the synergetic effects of various behaviour change interventions using the proposed framework. Thu, 15 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34712 2026-01-15T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34694 Establishing the Level of Support for Transport Initiatives which make a Positive Impact on Travel Behaviour Hensher, David A.; Wei, Edward; Nelson, John D.; Kandanaarachchi, Thiranjaya; Mulley, Corinne; Balbontin, Camila; Liu, Wen; Ho, Chinh The concept of “windows of change” (WoC) highlights periods when established behaviours are unsettled and individuals are more open to alternatives. This paper advances the understanding of sustainable transport policy by highlighting WoC and segmentation as complementary tools for designing and implementing effective interventions. Data is collected from over 4,000 respondents spread across Australia, Finland, New Zealand, the United States, the United Kingdom, Singapore, and Sweden, investigating respondents’ WoC over the period 2023–2025. We also explore the influence of 50 transport-influencing initiatives on how people travel. From a three class Latent Class Analysis model we labelled the classes as “Urban strivers” (characterised noticeably by a majority of members in full-time employment); “Settled simplifiers” (in addition to retirees, including homemakers and other "not working"); and “Dynamic jugglers” (including part-time and flexible workers). Dynamic jugglers are found to be the most receptive of the range of transport-influencing initiatives explored. The comparative analysis of these three classes demonstrates how segmentation, when combined with WoC, can guide policymakers in tailoring transport interventions more effectively. Tue, 13 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34694 2026-01-13T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34693 Identifying circumstances in which the introduction of distance-based, cordon-based, and congestion-free lane road user charge regimes garner support Hensher, David A.; Wei, Edward; Balbontin, Camila; Nelson, John D. The most challenging transport reform has always been associated with re-pricing of car use. Despite the growing levels of congestion on our roads, there is general reluctance to support a package of pricing reforms designed to make each and every car user potentially better off financially and/or in saving time. There exist a number of systemwide charging reforms such as the Oregon kilometre-based charging regime, but they are in the main opt-in models, which offer an appealing way for politicians to support the ideals of giving everyone a choice. The cordon-based congestion charging schemes in London, Milan, Stockholm, Gothenburg, New York, and Singapore, while applying to all users who enter a specific location, are limited to one location as is the idea of a congestion-free priced lane. This paper focuses on re-pricing options (with varying charges) to identify how residents are likely to respond to peak period distance-based charging throughout an entire city, cordon-based charges in a defined geographical area, and congestion-free priced lanes on major roads. A series of road pricing initiatives were offered to over 4,000 individuals in seven countries, seeking advice on whether a particular initiative is likely to have a positive or negative impact (or none at all) on how they travel, revealing support or otherwise for a specific re-pricing regime. For each road pricing initiative, we ran a generalised ordered logit model to identify what contextual variables influence the probability of an initiative being associated with a positive impact, a negative impact, or no impact. We are especially interested in understanding how prior “windows of change” associated with lifestyle, mobility, work, commuting, and environmental preferences condition support or otherwise for each road pricing reform initiative. The findings provide suggestions on the extent to which each of the eight initiatives assessed can deliver support or otherwise for road pricing reforms from individuals whose recent past is associated with one or more of the 70 windows of change investigated. Tue, 13 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34693 2026-01-13T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34564 Who is inclined to embrace sustainable options in on-demand mobility? Pellegrini, Andrea; Fielbaum, Andres Shared on-demand mobility can be made more sustainable, but this often involves trade-offs in comfort and cost. For example, electric vehicles emit less CO2 but may require higher fares to compensate for charging time, while walking segments can reduce vehicle-kilometres travelled by avoiding detours, yet offer less comfort than door-to-door services. This study examines travellers’ willingness to choose more sustainable shared mobility options and identifies which users are most likely to make such choices. To do so, we apply an integrated choice and latent variable model to data collected via a discrete choice experiment (DCE) administrated to a sample of residents of the Greater Sydney Area, Australia. Specifically, respondents were presented with three shared mobility options, two of which required walking to reach pickup or dropoff points. Each option was described by a set of attributes, including waiting time, in-vehicle time, emission reduction relative to conventional vehicles, walking time and price. In addition to completing the DCE, respondents answered a series of attitudinal questions designed to capture key travel-related dimensions: safety of car, pro-walk orientation, time sensitivity, and variety-seeking behaviour. Results indicate that respondents who place high value on car safety are less likely to choose carbon neutral trips, whereas pro-walkers are more inclined to select shared mobility services that involve walking to PUDO points. The results are then used to compute willingness to pay values for five distinct user profiles. Our main findings are that (i) Users are generally willing to pay a higher fare to reduce emissions; (ii) Personalized sustainability options yield greater participation and emission reductions than uniform policies; and (iii) Regular public transport users show higher willingness to walk, highlighting potential synergies between on-demand mobility and transit. Mon, 01 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34564 2025-12-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34562 Understanding charging duration patterns of electric vehicle users: Evidence from an Australian field study Pellegrini, Andrea; Cherchi, Elisabetta; Rose, John In this study, we examine the charging location and duration choices made by Australian electric vehicle owners over a one-week period. To do so, we employ a multivariate multiple discrete-grouped extreme value (MDGEV) model (Bhat et al., 2020) that allows the simultaneous evaluation of where and for how long vehicles are charged across multiple locations, while also capturing potential correlation effects among charging sites. Further, state dependent variables are incorporated into the specification to capture habit persistence effects, whereby past charging choices influence subsequent decisions. The empirical findings indicate that solar panel ownership increases the likelihood of home charging but is associated with shorter charging durations compared with households without photovoltaic access. Residing in major cities is found to be linked to a greater reliance on non-home charging, confirming the prolonged challenges faced by electric vehicle owners in densely populated urban areas. Habit persistence is estimated to play a key role in the charging-decision making process, with EV owners exhibiting routine behaviour when selecting the facility for their next charging activities. The estimated results are next used to investigate how charging duration patterns change under the universal adoption of solar panels and flexible electricity plans, revealing that both policies will impact the rate and duration of charging across locations. Mon, 01 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34562 2025-12-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34342 Introducing Money into the Framework of a General Equilibrium Model Truong, P. Truong Money is an important factor in economic activities but in a general equilibrium framework the concept of money seems to be absent. In fact money is often considered only as a ‘veil’ in hiding real economic activities, and therefore it has been ‘lifted’ out of the model so that the underlying ‘real’ activities in an economy can be examined more clearly. However, in practice, money is more than just a ‘veil’. It can provide a platform on which many activities and/or commodities can be conceived, produced and exchanged. Money is also a store of value, not of its own, but of others, and with its purchasing-power money can enable its holder to have access to, and command the usage of, many other commodities and labour (human-time) to achieve certain objectives. Money therefore can be considered as part of the infrastructure of an economy which helps the economy to grow and prosper. In the past, economic theories of money and theories of (labour and commodity) values have looked at these two sides of an economy as though they are governed by different ‘laws’, but in fact, there is only one set of laws which govern both the price of money as well as the values of commodities and labour. Since money can act as a means of exchange, it therefore can also act as a constraint on this exchange. This means conceptually and mathematically, the ‘value of money’ is actually just the Lagrangian shadow price of this monetary constraint, but expressed in terms of the values of commodities and labour (not in terms of the ‘value of money’ itself, otherwise this is circular reasoning). If a ‘real’ economy is considered as though consisting of many different value-chains linking all activities together from producers to consumers, then money can act as the shadow price level of all these activity-chains. In this paper, we examine the interactions between the different value-chains and their shadow prices, in a general equilibrium economic model. Since monetary exchange is actually at the core of almost every economic activity in a modern economy, a study of the nature and ‘values’ of these exchanges is important for a better understanding of the working of a ‘real’ economy, and the theory of general equilibrium is a useful foundation or platform on which to conduct this study. Mon, 29 Sep 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34342 2025-09-29T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34268 Road User Charge Reform and the Political Shift in Interest in Australia: Some Thoughts to Contemplate Hensher, David A. The 2024 electric vehicle distance-based charge introduced in Victoria, Australia, to recognise that such vehicles do not pay fuel excise tax, led to a high court challenge in which it was deemed unconstitutional for a State to introduce such a charge, which is the responsibility of the Federal government (through legislation amendment). This loss of fuel excise as a tax (not a charge) on electric cars whetted the appetite of the Federal Government to place road user charging on a round table in August 2025. We now have elevated the topic right into the political sphere where any change will require such support, and it opens up an opportunity to not only consider the fuel excise issue per se but the broader agenda on road pricing reform. For the first time, we have a political appetite to do something even if it is driven by a loss of fuel excise revenue which has never been earmarked back to roads but is a backbone revenue source for many Federal government initiatives. In this paper, we consider a number of ways in which we can begin the journey to satisfy the political appetite while achieving much broader efficiency and equity objectives. Wed, 03 Sep 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34268 2025-09-03T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34242 Personal e-scooter ownership and use: Perspectives from New Zealand Greaves, Stephen; Balfoort, Ferdinand C In common with much of the world, e-scooters have emerged onto the urban landscape in New Zealand, promising both a practical and greener form of personal mobility. While focus has primarily been around managing shared e-scooter services, relatively liberal e-scooter legislation has encouraged the purchase of personal/private e-scooters, which are not regulated at the point of sale, exacerbating concerns around how to safely accommodate this emerging mode. In turn, this highlights the need for better understanding of personal e-scooter users, about which relatively little is known. Drawing from a survey of 252 current and former e-scooter owners in New Zealand, this paper provides estimates of e-scooter ownership, explores motivations for purchasing e-scooters, who is buying them, what consumers are looking for, how they are being used and implications for shared e-scooter schemes. Results suggest around 60% of personal e-scooters are capable of travelling about the maximum ‘safe’ e-scooter speed limit in New Zealand of 25 kph. E-scooter owners are more likely be male, middle-aged, middle/higher income, employed and have tried a shared e-scooter scheme prior to purchase and be motivated by the flexibility, performance, and potential cost-savings. The growing number of shared e-scooter services is evidently providing a pathway to purchase, a complementary mode and potentially a factor in people selling their e-scooter. Going forward, safely accommodating, and regulating e-scooter usage without compromising the intrinsic appeal of this emerging mode of transport is essential, if it is to play a meaningful role in moving us towards more sustainable mobility systems. Wed, 20 Aug 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34242 2025-08-20T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34231 Healthy ageing and active travel: Identifying age-related barriers to walking and cycling Vukalovich, Natarsha; Greaves, Stephen; Owen, Katherine; Tiedemann, Anne; Crane, Melanie In a period of increasing mobility technologies, sustainable transport options, and healthy ageing concerns it is timely to better understand the barriers to active travel, particularly for older adults. Drawing from a survey of 1,522 Sydney residents, we compare travel patterns and perceived barriers to walking and cycling for older adults (60+) and younger adults (18-59). Car/motorbike/Uber use and walking have frequent and consistent use across both age groups. In contrast, public transport and bicycle/e-bicycle use both decline with age. Perceived barriers to walking and cycling are analysed across age groups using logistic regression. Relative to younger adults, older adults are more likely to identify an injury or disability (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.04) and the convenience of driving (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.73) as barriers to walking/walking more. Conversely, older adults are less likely to identify no-one to walk with (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.68), personal safety (OR, 0.28, 95% 0.17 to 0.45), traffic (OR 0.26, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.41), inadequate street lighting (OR 0.50, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.90), no footpaths (OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.70), and distance (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.96) as barriers to walking/walking more. For cycling, lack of access to a bicycle (OR 2.74, 95% CI 2.15 to 3.48), and insufficient skills (OR 2.9, 95% CI 2.1 to 3.99) are key issues for older adults, while sociocultural and built environment barriers are again perceived as less of a barrier. Practical issues (distance, transport availability, skills development), personal limitations, and potentially the nature/purpose of travel are key factors associated with active travel among older adults in Sydney. Policymakers need to ensure sociocultural and built environment barriers are lowered to ensure those already walking and cycling maintain this into old age. Mon, 18 Aug 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34231 2025-08-18T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34191 A habit persistence model of multiple discrete/continuous demand for evaluating charging behaviour of Australian electric vehicle owners Pellegrini, Andrea; Rose, John M. This paper introduces a novel habit persistence model of discrete/continuous demand that allows the joint evaluation of the spatial (i.e., location) and temporal (i.e., time of day) dimensions of the charging decision-making process. The model’s habit persistence structure further captures established recharging routines that influence both when and where charging occurs. The proposed model is applied to data capturing weekly charging activities collected using an online survey disseminated to a sample of EV owners recruited from across Australia between February and March 2024. Results show that charging at home is the most prevalent behaviour, with a strong tendency towards daytime charging largely driven by households with access to residential solar panels. Workplace charging emerges as a viable alternative to home charging when employers provide free charging and commuting frequency is high. The model also reveals the presence of state dependencies in charging behaviour, indicating that past choices are likely to influence current charging patterns. The empirical findings are subsequently used to demonstrate how changes in electricity prices can shift charging demand and impact grid load, corroborating the importance of targeted policy interventions to manage the growing energy demand for EVs. Tue, 05 Aug 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34191 2025-08-05T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34154 Windows of change as precursors to changing travel behaviour aligned with sustainable mobility Hensher, David A.; Nelson, John D.; Wei, Edward; Kandanaarachchi, Thiranjaya; Balbontin, Camila; Ho, Chinh; Mulley, Corinne; Liu, Wen There is increasingly a greater focus on ways in which we can achieve behavioural change associated with improved sustainability outcomes in the transport sector. In societies where the car is the dominant passenger transport mode with all of its associated interpretations of convenience, we continue to search for ways to change travel habits that result in a switch out of the car in favour of public transport and active modes. The focus of this paper is on identifying windows of change (WoC) that have subsequently had an influence on the travel mobility preferences of individuals, hopefully in ways that support sustainability outcomes. We categorise the WoCs into four broad areas: lifestyle and household changes (e.g., changes in living arrangements, family structure, or personal habits), work and commuting-related changes (e.g., changes in employment, workplace incentives or commuting patterns), transport and mobility changes (e.g., changes in vehicle ownership, public transport use or travel habits), and social and environmental considerations (including awareness and influence of others). A series of negative binomial count models are estimated to identify the relationship between the WoCs and modal one-way trip frequency in a typical week, after controlling for various socioeconomic effects and country dummy variables. Data is collected from over 4,000 respondents spread across Australia, Finland, New Zealand, the United States, the United Kingdom, Singapore, and Sweden, investigating respondents’ WoC over the period 2023–2025 and their most recent weekly travel patterns. The findings provide a rich array of policy advice on what key WoC influences suggest actionable ways to support the switch to more sustainable modes, and what remain as clear barriers to achieving such an outcome. Tue, 29 Jul 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34154 2025-07-29T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33604.2 A spatial-temporal dynamic attention based Mamba model for multi-type passenger demand prediction in multimodal public transit systems Shao, Zhiqi; Xi, Haoning; Hensher, David A.; Wang, Ze; Gong, Xiaolin; Gao, Junbin Predicting multi-type passenger demand, such as for adults, seniors, pensioners, and students, is essential for improving the operational efficiency, equity, and sustainability of multimodal public transit (PT) systems. However, traditional demand prediction models often struggle to capture the complex spatial-temporal variability inherent in diverse socio-demographic groups. To address this gap, we propose a novel spatial-temporal dynamic attention-based state-space model, i.e., STDAtt-Mamba, tailored for multi-type passenger demand prediction in multimodal PT systems. The STDAtt-Mamba model comprises three key components: an adaptive embedding layer that integrates station-level, passenger-type-specific, and temporal embeddings into a unified representation for efficient data processing; a spatial-temporal dynamic attention (STDAtt) module that employs sparse attention mechanisms to selectively capture crucial global spatial-temporal dynamics; and a spatial-temporal dynamic Mamba (STDMamba) module that extends state-space modeling to fuse spatial and temporal dependencies dynamically. We reformulate STDAtt-Mamba as a spatial-temporal dual-path attention mechanism and theoretically prove the complementarity of STDMamba and STDAtt in capturing local and global dependencies, thereby improving the interpretability of the STDAtt-Mamba. We conduct extensive experiments on a large-scale multimodal dataset of over 1.58 million smart card users of 9 passenger types from Queensland, Australia, from 01/2021 to 01/2023. Experimental results demonstrate that STDAtt-Mamba outperforms state-of-the-art baseline models regarding the prediction accuracy across all passenger types and travel modes. By addressing the challenges of heterogeneity in spatial-temporal travel patterns and socio-demographic groups, this study offers an adaptive, robust, scalable, and data-driven tool for managing the heterogeneous passenger demand in multimodal PT systems. Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33604.2 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33703.2 A multi-task Transformer with mixture-of-experts for personalized periodic predictions of individual travel behavior in multimodal public transport Xi, Haoning; Shao, Zhiqi; Hensher, David A; Nelson, John D; Chen, Huaming; Wijayaratna, Kasun Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) platforms are reshaping urban mobility by integrating multiple travel modes into seamless, user-centric systems. However, designing dynamic MaaS bundles that adapt to user-specific preferences, evolving over time in response to changing travel behaviors and shifting needs, remains a significant challenge. The rise of big data and artificial intelligence (AI) has unlocked new opportunities for data-driven personalized MaaS bundle solutions. In this study, we introduce an innovative MaaSformer-MMoE framework to customize user-specific monthly MaaS bundles by predicting each user’s mode-specific usage frequency class (classification tasks) and travel fare (regression task) for the upcoming month based on the user’s previous travel records. Within the multi-gate mixture-of-expert (MMoE) framework, each expert network is a MaaSformer, and each gate determines the weighted contributions of expert outputs relevant to a specific task tower. MaaSformer integrates two key modules: 1) Multi-mode Transformer processes continuous time-series features (e.g., monthly travel time, distance, and fare) employing a multi-feature self-attention mechanism; 2) OD Transformer processes origin-destination (OD)-specific travel features (i.e., journey frequency) using a multi-OD self-attention mechanism. Evaluated on a multimodal (i.e., bus, rail, ferry, and tram) dataset of over 1.5822 million users in Queensland, Australia, from 01/2021 to 01/2023, the proposed MaaSformer-MMoE demonstrates state-of-the-art performance in predicting mode usage frequency class and travel fare compared with 9 baseline models, significantly improving user satisfaction, adoption and retention for MaaS platforms. Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33703.2 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34143 Combining Participatory Budget and Cost Benefit Analysis: A hybrid project evaluation framework Rose, John M.; Pellegrini, Andrea This paper introduces a novel hybrid methodology proposes integrating Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) with Participatory Budgeting (PB) to enhance public sector decision-making. To highlight the approach, we assume that CBA has been conducted to evaluate twelve independent infrastructure and service projects, establishing their economic viability. Subsequently, PB is employed to elicit community preferences regarding the same projects, ensuring alignment with public values. The combined framework aims to reconcile technical efficiency with democratic legitimacy, promoting government outcomes that reflect both expert analysis and citizen priorities. Our findings reveal a strong community preference for projects that improve health outcomes and utility infrastructure, while initiatives focused on transport electrification received comparatively low support. These results underscore the importance of incorporating public sentiment into investment decisions, particularly in sectors where societal benefits may be perceived differently than economic returns. Wed, 23 Jul 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34143 2025-07-23T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34069 Exploring community public budget preferences for transport electrification: Evidence from a contingent budget allocation study in New South Wales, Australia Pellegrini, Andrea; Rose, John M.; Hensher, David A. The allocation of funds to different functions of government reflets political priorities that often-run counter to public expectations. In this paper, we adopt a contingent allocation method survey task that requires respondents to distribute a fixed budget across 12 different potential project types. The main goal is to elicit community preferences for the allocation of public funds across a broad array of government functions, with a particular focus on transport electrification projects. Based on a sample of 727 residents from the state of New South Wales, Australia, our findings suggest strong community support for funding healthcare, utility related projects, as well as for funding roads and education. The research goal of the study was, however, to explore support for the electrification of the transport sector, for which, unfortunately, we found little support amongst the community. Fri, 04 Jul 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/34069 2025-07-04T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33950 How poor land use planning has created an unfixable problem for transport: a case study of the City of Johannesburg Pisa, Noleen; Ho, Chinh Q.; Hensher, David A.; Luke, Rose; Heyns, Gert; Mageto, Joash; Chakamera, Chengete Rapid urbanisation and apartheid‐era land-use legacies leave many South Africans captive to long, costly, and unsafe commutes. Yet rigorous evidence on how township residents value transport attributes is scarce. This study addresses that gap with the first high-quality stated-preference dataset for commuting in South Africa. Using an efficient best-worst design, 201 face-to-face interviews were conducted in Soweto, eliciting dual responses on cost, in-vehicle time, first/last-mile effort, comfort and safety for both public and private transport options. Mixed-logit best-worst models capture unobserved taste heterogeneity and deliver the country’s first mode-specific elasticities and willingness-to-pay measures. Results show no systematic behavioural differences between workers and adult students. Instead, attribute valuations are dominated by safety concerns. The willingness to pay for a “very safe” service is over four times that for a one-hour reduction in travel time. Elasticities confirm that safety improvements have the greatest potential to shift demand, whereas marginal fare increases sharply deter low-income users. The findings stress that enhancing perceived and actual safety is a prerequisite for sustainable mode shift in Gauteng. They also provide policy-ready parameters for appraisal of bus, rail and minibus-taxi upgrades in similarly segregated African cities. Fri, 30 May 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33950 2025-05-30T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33947 Low Cost Flat Public Fare Policy: Induced Demand, Mode Switching and Policy Beneficiaries Rose, John M.; Pellegrini, Andrea; Hensher, David A.; Beck, Matthew J. This study analyses six waves of cross-sectional survey data collected both before and after the introduction of a $0.50 flat fare structure across all public transport modes operating within Queensland Australia. The frequency of public transport trips is reported from 650 to 700 respondents per wave across each of the six waves of data collection, including information on trips that are reported as being trips that would have occurred irrespective of the low fare structure, trips that occurred solely as a result of the low flat fare structuring being introduced, and public transport trips that involve switching to public transport modes from some other mode of transport. Our findings suggest that the low fare structure led to increased public transport trips due to induced demand, with much less scope for mode switching behaviour. Further, the primary beneficiaries of the fare policy appear to be younger lower income individuals and/or those who are already regular public transport users. As such, consistent with the introduction of low or zero fare policies in other jurisdictions, the introduction of a flat $0.50 fare in Queensland has resulted in increased public transport patronage for some groups, while only limited mode switching behaviour is observed to have occurred. Thu, 29 May 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33947 2025-05-29T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33941 A comparative analysis of the drivers and outcomes of work, location and commuting choices of the office only, hybrid, and home/other location only workers Wei, Edward; Hensher, David A. Hybrid work in an office and non-office locations on the same or different days, has become a mainstream work pattern in addition to only working in the office or working from home (WFH). This paper compares the three work groups within a framework covering drivers and outcomes for interconnected work patterns, location and commuting choices, using survey data of 981 randomly sampled employees in Australia. The research goes beyond the socioeconomic characteristics of employees to examine other reasons why the three groups choose the way they work and commute, and their work-related motivation, performance and wellbeing. The research reveals the following key findings: 1) Having the highest level of motivation drives hybrid workers to work hard with more working hours than other groups. The long working hours, however, have a detrimental effect on their wellbeing and job performance, despite the highest level of job satisfaction. However, they perform best in terms of contextual performance when more responsibilities and challenges are present. 2) The WFH/other only group has the healthiest wellbeing and the least counterproductive work behaviour on job performance. This suggests that work location is not the key reason for poor job performance and hence productivity. 3) The office-only workers have the best task performance as well as the second-best performance for contextual performance where more responsibilities and challenges are required. 4) A discrete choice model for the three groups suggests that commuting and work patterns for each day of the week (DoW) and time of the day (ToD), together with roles in the organisation, enable us to predict whether employees are likely to belong to one of three work-location alternatives. These findings suggest a need to shift the focus of work and transport policy from the predominate focus on location to other work-related issues, such as work-related wellbeing, and to consider ways to recognise better work arrangements as a significant contributor to improved workforce performance. Tue, 27 May 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33941 2025-05-27T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33870 Introducing the Time Factor into the Economic Framework of a Static General Equilibrium Model Truong, Truong P.; Stone, Alastair; Beck, Maris Time is an important ‘factor’ or ‘input’ into many economic activities, but up to now, the issue of time valuation has been considered mostly in a partial equilibrium framework such as in the context of travel time savings valuation. This does not allow for a more general consideration of the issue of time valuation especially in the wider context of an economy where almost any economic activity ‘takes time’. In a general equilibrium framework, however, the issue of time valuation seems to be neglected. This is because despite the fact that both production as well as consumption activities ‘take time’, production time is often considered only implicitly via the representation of the labour input: as a flow of labour service through time. Capital-time or machine-time, on the other hand, is ignored or masked under the representation of this input in the form of a stock rather than a flow (of capital services). Flow requires time, whereas stock is ‘timeless’. Therefore, it can be said that time is almost ‘absent’ in a (static) general equilibrium framework where, not only with regard to the issue about capital stock versus capital service flow (or utilization rate), in the long run as well as in the short run, but also with regard to the consideration of other so-called ‘fixed’ input, such land, natural or environmental resource stocks. These stocks are often taken into consideration but only with regard to the measurement of the (static) wealth of an individual or of a nation, but not with regard to the flow of the income which is derived from the activities of the individual or the nation (activities take time). In this paper, we consider the time factor in the framework of a ‘comparative static’ general equilibrium economic model because even here the operation of the time factor is still present and important and can affect the valuation (or costing) of many economic activities albeit in an implicit and subtle way. Tue, 06 May 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33870 2025-05-06T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33867 Profiling future passenger transport initiatives that garner community support as a guide to identify the growing role of active and micro-mobility modes: a MDCEV model Balbontin, Camila; Hensher, David A.; Wei, Edward; Liu, Wen This paper examines the factors influencing the adoption and frequency of use of sustainable transport modes including walking, cycling, electric bicycles, electric vehicles, and public transport, for different trip purposes. Using a two-stage stated preference experiment in metropolitan Australia, we use a mixed multinomial logit model (MML) model to estimate the probability of adopting door-to-door travel alternatives, followed by a multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model to capture the number of weekly trips taken by mode and purpose. Results show that trip purpose plays a significant role in mode selection, with commuting trips associated with greater willingness to shift to active and electric modes, especially when infrastructure quality is high. In contrast, shopping and personal business trips are more sensitive to access mode and mode experience. E-bikes emerge as a flexible option for both commuting and recreational trips, while walking is mainly preferred for short, non-commute travel. The findings underscore the importance of purpose-specific strategies and high-quality infrastructure in promoting sustainable and integrated mobility futures. Mon, 05 May 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33867 2025-05-05T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33407.2 Estimating gasoline demand under electric vehicle adoption: A spatial model for Brazil Prolo, Sergio; Pellegrini, Andrea; Junior, Werner Kraus; Coelhoc, Alexandre Hering; Rose, John We investigate gasoline demand growth in Brazil over a 16-year period, assessing its response to electric vehicle (EV) adoption and taxation measures. Using a spatial-based econometric model with data from 2006 to 2021 across all Brazilian states, we observe that annual gasoline sales nearly doubled from 2006 to 2014, reaching 0.22 m³ per capita, and then stabilized. Our model reveals that the EV motorization rate negatively impacts gasoline demand, with an elasticity of -0.126, compared to 0.609 for internal combustion engine vehicles. The results show that aggressive fuel taxation alone is insufficient to achieve long-term reductions in demand. However, fleet electrification is more effective, potentially reducing per capita gasoline consumption by 90% between 2021 and 2034. A combined approach integrating taxation and electrification offers the most efficient pathway for reducing demand while generating revenue for public investment in Brazil’s transition to a carbonfree transportation sector. Mon, 01 Jan 2024 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33407.2 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33842 Managing Paradoxical Trade-Offs: Sustainability and Diversification Strategies of Supply Managers Fahimnia, Ben; Collins, Andrew; Moritz, Brent This paper investigates how practicing supply managers evaluate the paradoxical trade-offs of environmental and social sustainability relative to cost and supply diversification. Although sustainable business practices are important, firms often struggle to translate these goals into actions. As sourcing decisions are key to sustainable supply chains, we investigate how managers make trade-offs in supplier selection. We completed a discrete choice experiment with 217 experienced professionals, with realistic levels based on observed supplier evaluations. We show how these practicing supply managers value and trade-off between location diversification, environmental sustainability, and social sustainability. We found that managers resisted selecting new suppliers with worse sustainability profiles and were willing to incur slightly higher costs for suppliers with better environmental and social performance. These results were stronger for managers at lower levels of the firm. Managers also valued environmental performance more than social performance, and lower-level managers were more likely to view these as substitutes. Specific to risk management, supply managers were willing to pay more for increased geographic diversification of the suppliers, even if adding diversification resulted in poorer environmental performance. However, they were reluctant to add new suppliers within the same country unless doing so also improved environmental performance. Understanding how practicing supply chain professionals value and trade-off competing priorities when selecting suppliers can help companies manage risk and improve environmental and social sustainability. Mon, 28 Apr 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33842 2025-04-28T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33631.2 Nothing gained from overcrowding: a general population equilibrium Day, Christopher Following two centuries of rapid population growth, fertility rates in developed economies have declined below replacement levels. This raises an important demographic question concerning the drivers of future fertility rates in post demographic transition societies. I propose a general population equilibrium framework which argues that the decline in fertility rates below replacement levels in wealthy economies is in response to a range of pressures associated with a growing and affluent population. The lag between declining mortality rates and birth rates caused the population to overshoot what I term its “general equilibrium”. In consequence, cost of living pressures, environmental degradation and employment market competition intensified within developed economies. These forces are inconducive to child rearing. In response, the population declines until the general population equilibrium is attained. The equilibrium point is identified as the population size at which a society chooses, on aggregate, to achieve replacement level fertility given the resources and technology available. Significant policy implications emerge from this interpretation. Population policies aimed at countering an ageing demographic structure, such as through promoting inbound net migration or higher fertility rates, may only delay a return to an equilibrium population and resource profile. Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33631.2 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33702 Are users ready to accept fully flexible walking in on-demand mobility? Pellegrini, Andrea; Fielbaum, Andres On-demand ride pooling benefits from updating its routing decisions in real-time as new information becomes available, as well as from optimising the pickup and drop off (PUDO) points to avoid long detours. Both features indicate that it could be plausible to implement flexible walking, i.e., deciding the PUDO points dynamically, as opposed to informing users upfront. However, this could reduce the reliability of ride pooling thereby influencing the user experience. In this paper, we analyse data extracted from a labelled discrete choice experiment, consisting of three distinct ride pooling alternatives: door-to-door, fixed walking where walking time is informed upfront, and flexible walking where walking time is expressed as a time interval. Each alternative is further described by the following battery of attributes: price, in vehicle and waiting times, and emission savings compared to conventional petrol vehicles. The empirical analysis is performed via the density de-compositional version of the non parametric random effects Logit Mixed Logit model. Our main findings are as follows: i) There is a discontinuous zero-walk effect: passengers strongly prefer door-to-door services to walking even a minimal distance; ii) Users prefer to know their walking direction, as the willingness to pay to reduce walking time is significantly higher when the PUDO point is not fixed in advance; iii) The so-called reliability ratio, which compares the value of reliability to the value of time, is approximately 0.68 for walking time — significantly greater than previous values obtained for either waiting or in-vehicle time indicating that reliability is relatively more important for walking. All of this implies that flexible walking would be desirable only if the operational benefits are very large. On the other hand, those three findings reflect the average, but we do identify a percentage of the population willing to embrace flexible walking, suggesting that offering both fixed and flexible times to the users can be the best option. Fri, 14 Mar 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33702 2025-03-14T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33603 The MaaS Blueprint for Regional Towns and Rural Hinterlands Nelson, John D.; Mulley, Corinne; Hensher, David A.; Ho, Chinh; Xi, Haoning; Balbontin, Camila This Blueprint document presents a vision for how transport services in rural and regional areas in the NSW context could be better organised to meet the needs of residents and visitors. The Blueprint features a mobility framework for Rural and Regional MaaS which is multi-modal (including all modes available, including the private car) and multi-service (e.g., non-mobility services such as parcel deliveries, library services, food and medicine distribution, media streaming). The Blueprint also provides a focus on decarbonising transport and combatting social exclusion. Fri, 07 Feb 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33603 2025-02-07T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33602 The influence of flexi-time and flexi-place work on online ordering expenditure Hensher, David A.; Pellegrini, Andrea; Wei, Edward In recent years we have seen a tsunami of change in both the way in which work is performed by location, when, and the quantum of hours, which is now seen as flexi-place and flexitime, together with the growth annually in online shopping. These two phenomena may be related to working from home all day and/or a blended or hybrid workday (part in the main office and part elsewhere) may have contributed to boosting online ordering. In this paper, we estimate a Tobit regression model with a zero-corner solution to explore the interplay between the amount of money spent on online shopping and whether the hours working from home and/or hybrid work results in an increase in expenditure on online ordering. There appears to be little evidence in the research literature given to this relationship. We draw on a March 2024 survey for Australia to investigate the presence of a link, and we find that there are systematic differences, with a higher incidence of online expenditure associated with a higher probability of working from home all day or on a blended workday. Partial effects estimates suggest a statistically significant difference, and as the mix of flexitime and flexi-place changes over time, we can expect a noticeable response in the quantum of online shopping expenditure. Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33602 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33548 Systematic assessment of push and pull initiatives in behavioural responses associated with public transport fares, service frequency, car-related tolls, distance-based road user charges, and parking charges Hensher, David A.; Wei, Edward; Liu, Wen There has been a constant flow of empirical evidence suggesting the likely modal trip impact that stand-alone policy initiatives such as public transport fares or service frequency and road pricing reforms (be it tolls or distance-based charging) have on the change in travel behaviour. While the evidence, typically converted to mean direct elasticity and cross elasticity modal estimates, is informative, there is a dearth of empirical evidence on elasticities associated with policy initiatives that combine policies such as a public transport fare or service frequency change and a car-related toll and /or distance-based charge and/or parking charges. This paper investigates the one-way trip and arc elasticity impacts of stand-alone policy initiatives and compares the two elasticity effects when push and pull policy initiatives are at play. We find not only that there are asymmetric effects according to whether the policy involves an increase or a decrease, but that the combined policy initiatives suggest very different mean arc elasticity impacts, opening up opportunities for behavioural changes that are not obtained to the same extent from a stand-alone policy initiative. Each policy by itself generally, although not always, has a lower relative elasticity compared to when it is combined with another policy. We use the advanced Metroscan integrated transport and land use strategic model system to obtain the evidence for 2024 in the Sydney Metropolitan Area. Fri, 24 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33548 2025-01-24T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33542 Different Responses to Travel Hindrances: Pandemic, Congestion, and Extreme Weather Nakamura, Eri; Shibayama, Takeru We investigate how different levels of perceived risk affect individual travel decisions. Three travel scenarios (daily grocery shopping, going to a restaurant, and attending a one-off sports match) are compared under three types of travel hindrances (pandemic, heavy rain, and traffic congestion). A survey in Japan, Germany and the UK reveals the following four implications. First, people's decisions differ depending on the travel scenario and the hindrance. Heavy rain is perceived as a more severe constraint than traffic congestion in the decision to postpone a travel, and fewer people cancel a sports match than restaurant. Second, people's decisions also depend on the certainty that the hindrance will be resolved. People are more likely to postpone or cancel a travel if there is a greater likelihood that the hindrance will be resolved soon. Third, the essentiality and substitutability of a travel influence the minimum discount rate for compensation. People require a higher discount rate for essential shopping than for dining out for postponement, and for dining out than for a sports match for cancellation. Fourth, the incentive mechanisms for postponing and cancelling a travel are not transferable across countries, as respondents in our sample countries show different tendencies. Wed, 22 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33542 2025-01-22T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33488 Measuring Public Transport Accessibility – A Review and Future Directions Perera, Supun S.; Zareh Andaryan, Sam; Bell, Michael G.H.; McCabe, Graham Achieving sustainable transport targets in the context of population growth requires a significant shift from private vehicle use to public transport (PT). To enable this transition, PT services must provide accessible and efficient connections between passengers' origins and desired destinations, particularly for recurring, peak-period commuting trips. This study reviews existing methods for measuring PT accessibility, highlighting the strengths and limitations of various accessibility metrics. This work emphasises the need for a comprehensive PT accessibility metric that accounts for both supply and demand dynamics. Finally, in light of Sydney's newly announced Transport-Oriented Development (TOD) precincts, we discuss how a refined PT accessibility metric can guide practitioners and policymakers in addressing PT supply-demand imbalances. Wed, 18 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33488 2024-12-18T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33476 Enhancing last- mile connectivity through participatory planning- A case of Namma metro, Bengaluru Das, Bipasha; Gupta, Premjeet Das; Alavilli, Srinivas "An advanced city is not one where even the poor use cars, but rather one where even the rich use public transport" (Enrique Penalosa, 2013). The urgency for sustainable solutions has grown as rapid urbanization outpaces conventional planning methods. A paradigm shift towards inclusive, citizen-centric planning is crucial, where public participation is not just a formality but a cornerstone for creating equitable, co-producing cities. This shift is particularly important in mobility planning, where traditional practices must evolve into sustainable smart mobility solutions aimed at reducing congestion and emissions. Dynamic cities require more than technocratic advocacy; they need the integration of planning, governance, technology, and active citizen participation. This research aims to assess the transport governance for Bengaluru, one of India's largest and fastest-growing metropolises, and enhancing the last-mile connectivity for the metro system. Recognizing riders as co-creators and co-producers, the study focuses on optimizing the metro system to bridge the gap between planning and on-ground execution. The study assesses the effectiveness of governance by studying partnerships among civil societies, end users, and government agencies. Finally, the research uses qualitative methods, validated by quantitative data, to inform a framework for optimal engagement in Bengaluru's mobility planning. Mon, 16 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33476 2024-12-16T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33424 A City in Motion: Rethinking Urban Mobility through Sustainable Transport Systems Kamange, Coxley This paper examines the growing challenges of urban transportation in a world facing environmental and social pressures. The paper proposes a paradigm shift towards sustainable transport systems, prioritizing the well-being of citizens and the environment. Urban mobility is a critical aspect of modern city life, shaping not only the efficiency of transportation but also the quality of urban living and environmental sustainability. This research explores the paradigm shift towards sustainable transport systems as a means to address the challenges of congestion, pollution, and limited accessibility in urban environments. Through a comprehensive review of literature and case studies, this study examines the integration of alternative modes of transportation such as cycling infrastructure, public transit enhancements, and pedestrian-friendly urban designs. The principal results reveal the multifaceted benefits of sustainable transport systems, including reduced greenhouse gas emissions, improved air quality, enhanced public health, and increased social equity. Furthermore, the research highlights the importance of policy frameworks, technological innovations, and community engagement in fostering the transition towards more sustainable urban mobility solutions. In conclusion, this study underscores the imperative for cities to prioritize investments in sustainable transport infrastructure and policies to create more livable, resilient, and inclusive urban environments. The research analyzes successful strategies implemented in leading cities, highlighting the importance of promoting active modes like cycling and walking, alongside robust and efficient public transit networks. It explores how demand management techniques, such as congestion charging, can incentivize a move away from private car use. Urban mobility stands as a critical challenge in contemporary cities, marked by congestion, pollution, and inefficiency. This manuscript explores the imperative shift towards sustainable transport systems to alleviate these issues. Through an interdisciplinary lens, we examine the theoretical underpinnings, methodological approaches, implementation strategies, and resultant implications of adopting sustainable mobility solutions. Drawing upon empirical evidence and theoretical frameworks, we advocate for a holistic rethinking of urban mobility, emphasizing the integration of public transport, active modes, and innovative technologies. This manuscript contributes to the discourse on urban sustainability by offering actionable insights for policymakers, urban planners, and stakeholders vested in shaping the future of cities. The paper concludes that a sustainable urban mobility future requires a multi-faceted approach. By strategically integrating various transport options and promoting responsible consumer choices, cities can foster a cleaner, healthier, and more livable environment for all. Fri, 06 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33424 2024-12-06T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33423 Governance, locations and amenities of hubs – places that connect and intertwine mobility, energy and social networks Vianen, Jarco; Walvius, Minze A network of hubs could help to deal more efficiently with valuable public space and improve accessibility in cities. This paper aims to enhance Advier’s existing draft design principle, which can determine promising locations for the hub network and suitable amenities for each hub, following feedback from applications in Dutch municipalities. The draft design principle has been improved by adding two steps. First, the list of amenities can be further tailored to local needs by gaining direct insights from the local representatives. Second, hub locations can now be prioritized based on movability of anchor points and infrastructure maintenance or urban developments. Besides, this paper proposes a governance model for hub networks to align all stakeholders involved. Advier has identified the PPP governance model as the most preferable structure. According to this model, all stakeholders are shareholders of a hub network through a single entity, which is most likely to result in a positive business case while ensuring benefits for hub users, residents and the municipality. Both the enhanced design principle and governance model will support policymakers to develop a well- functioning hub network and will be further assessed and developed during living labs as part of the DMI programme. Fri, 06 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33423 2024-12-06T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33422 ‘Food Deserts’ Theory Applied in the Field of Road Safety: Testing the Impact of Traffic Analysis Zone Size in Cape Town Vanderschuren, Marianne; Newlands, Alexandra; Monyatsi, Bikomfident Motivated by the extremely high road fatality rates in South Africa (Vanderschuren et al., 2017), the authors are on a quest to improve road safety analysis methodologies, adapting the “Desert theory (Wrigley et al., 2002; Hulchanski, 2010; Vanderschuren et al., 2021). ‘Food Deserts’, as an example, are places where people, without access to motorised transport, are compelled to shop at corner stores with exorbitant costs and less fresh products. In line with the ‘Desert’ theory, a Z-value calculation is conducted. Z-values are numerical measurements used in statistics to determine a value relationship to the average of a group, measured in terms of standard deviations from the mean (Heyes, 2019). Z-values are calculated per Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ). Vanderschuren and Newlands (2024) have proven that an adaptation of the ‘Food Desert’ theory to the field of road safety is possible. In this work, the authors use smaller TAZs (52 instead of 16). This study revealed that the Z-value range for 52 TAZs is larger than the range for 16 areas. Furthermore, a significant number of large TAZs show variation within the area. More importantly, in some cases, a risk or desert area turns into a low road safety risk area. This underpins the need for small TAZs, and more detailed results. Fri, 06 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33422 2024-12-06T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33421 Small-Scale Public Transport for Social Capital Building – A Case of ‘Green Slow Mobility’ in Japan Qin, Ziyi; Mieno, Mayo; Nakamura, Eri; Utsunomiya, Kiyohito This research employs a case study approach to explore the link between public transport and social capital, with a specific focus on a type of micro-transit system known as ‘green slow mobility’ (GSM) in Japan. A questionnaire survey was conducted before and after the introduction of GSM in an urban residential area in Chiba City, Japan, to examine whether the implementation of GSM can contribute to social capital building. GSM users reported higher scores in terms of sense of community, mutual help, trust, and close neighbourhood relations than non-users, indicating a positive correlation between GSM usage and social capital building. The results suggest that GSM has the potential to foster social capital by encouraging resident outings and facilitating communication. The findings provide policy implications not only for addressing the diverse transport mobility needs arising from an ageing society but also for developing practical approaches towards an inclusive society by enhancing social capital accumulation. Fri, 06 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33421 2024-12-06T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33420 We are not all the same: Preference-Based Market Segmentation among Public Transport Users in Soweto, South Africa Cheure, Namatirai; Venter, Christoffel J. Identifying travel needs and preferences of different market segments is important in planning public transport systems. Preference-based market segmentation has been researched globally but rarely in the Sub-Saharan African context. This paper seeks to investigate variations in mode preference behaviour amongst public transport users in Soweto, Johannesburg. Revealed and stated preference surveys were conducted to capture travel choices in hypothetical scenarios involving bus rapid transit (BRT), bus, minibus taxis, Gautrain, car, and walk modes. The survey data was used to determine if preference heterogeneity exists amongst the respondents through a priori segmentation based on income and estimating multinomial and nested logit models, and by applying a latent class model. The latent class model identified two segments, labelled as, a “transfer sensitive” group and a “walk sensitive” group. The transfer sensitive group does not like using an access mode, transferring, and waiting, while the walk sensitive group tolerates access trips, transferring and waiting but do not like walking. The paper discusses the implications for public transport design. These include strategies that minimize transfers and reduce stop distances to attract both potential user groups as the network connectivity and access characteristics of a mode determine its attractiveness to different user groups. Fri, 06 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33420 2024-12-06T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33419 Evolution of bus rapid transit concepts in Sub-Saharan Africa: towards lighter design and incremental deployment Chetty, Alison; Venter, Christoffel J. While Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) has matured into a standardised set of technologies worldwide, its slow adoption in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) cities has raised questions about its suitability in some contexts. A number of key factors affect BRT adoption in SSA, including poorly developed road networks, constrained demand and affordability limits, and the strength and importance of the legacy informal public transport (PT) ecosystem. In response, some cities have increasingly departed from the conventional infrastructure-heavy BRT design approach towards lighter, more incremental deployment concepts, in an effort to better match local realities and constraints. This paper aims to describe this shift and put it into the context of a continuum of BRT deployment approaches. A literature review presents clarifying terminology and an overview of recent BRT system design in SSA cities. We then describe a phased implementation approach evolving in South African cities that focus on improving existing services gradually towards the final BRT design. Two examples of BRT evolution in large (City of Tshwane) and medium-sized (Rustenburg) cities are described in more detail. The potential implications of design standards are explored and provide insight for cities in developing countries seeking designs best suited to enhance PT services with limited funding. Fri, 06 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33419 2024-12-06T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33418 Creating Inclusive Public Transport – Addressing Gender Based Harassment Experiences and Improvement Opportunities Vanderschuren, Marianne; Allen, Heather In the international transport planning community, there is a growing realisation that the design and implementation of infrastructure and services can no longer be approached from a male only perspective. The needs of women, children, the elderly, and people with disability, must be considered to create an inclusive system. This is also the case for the provision of public transport services. It is well documented that globally women rely on public transport services to access education, health and employment opportunities, especially lower income women. Fewer women than men own a motorised vehicle or have a licence to drive one (Bates, 2015; Allen and Vanderschuren, 2016). In the African context, few formal public transport services remain, and these are mostly bus services. Informal systems, sometimes called popular or paratransit minibus systems, have stepped in to fill this gap. Motorcycle taxis are also widely used. Most public transport trips are made on a combination of these modes, which are especially used by women. Harassment in formal and informal public transport is an international phenomenon (Elsherif and Belding, 2015). This paper describes gender-based harassment case studies and intervention opportunities, investigating the usefulness of the SHE-CAN tool in addressing gender-based harassment. Fri, 06 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33418 2024-12-06T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33417 Critical factors influenced Pedestrian Walking Speed: A Meta-Analysis SHEN, Wei-Ting; YEN, Barbara T.H. Active transport plays a vital role in sustainable transport and urban planning and is beneficial for health. Since improving active transport facilities that provide service to active transport would improve the safety and convenience of micromobility users, it is essential to measure the performance of active transport facilities. Further, pedestrian walking speed has been recognised as the main design factor for pedestrian facilities. Due to different focuses and various outcome reports on cases related to walking speed, this study selects 41 papers and collects external data of quality of life indexes to control built environment and economic status of each case. A two-step modeling process is developed. Firstly, DBSCAN has been used to identify the similarities among the samples. Three clusters identified would be one of the inputs in the second stage. Secondly, meta-analysis regression model is developed. The result indicates that young pedestrians, weather, and DBSCAN clusters have significant positive impacts. Elderly, female pedestrians, specific clothing wearing, commercial land use, and speed type have significant negative impacts. Moreover, this study compares the worldwide Global Street Design Guide indicators with the meta-analysis model results. Findings would provide policymakers or planners with a clear guide on facility design. Fri, 06 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/2123/33417 2024-12-06T00:00:00Z